Match report →
Cruz Azul – Atlante2 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Cruz Azul
1.37
Total xG
2.92
Atlante
1.55
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Cruz Azul | Atlante |
|---|---|---|
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | +0.57 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.36 | +0.36 |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | −0.08 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| José Paradela on the bench (10 goals, 10 assists) | ||
| Carlos Rodríguez on the bench (8 goals, 6 assists) | ||
| Carlos Rotondi on the bench (6 goals, 7 assists) | ||
| 40% of goal output missing (only 52% available) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Only 52% of the goal threat available, without José Paradela, Carlos Rodríguez, and Carlos Rotondi
- Cruz Azul recently averaged 7.0 shots on target with 56% possession
- The mathematical model projects a closely contested match with an away win probability of 40%
Risks
- Atlante concedes an average of 2.0 goals per away match
- Limited data availability on head-to-head history and away team player form
All probabilities
Result
Cruz Azul32%
Draw28%
Atlante40%
Double chance
Cruz Azul or draw60%
Atlante or draw68%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.580%
Under 1.520%
Over 2.556%
Under 2.544%
Over 3.533%
Under 3.567%
Both teams score
Yes60%
No40%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
1:2
9%
2:1
8%
0:2
7%
2:2
6%
2:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Cruz Azul: 68% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- Cruz Azul: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
Cruz Azul 5-3-2 · Atlante 5-3-2
Cruz Azul
- 1 A. Gudiño Portillo
- 16 Á. Márquez Castañeda
- 33 G. Piovi
- 4 W. Ditta Pérez
- 5 J. Orozco Chiquete
- 3 O. Campos Chagoya
- 18 L. Romero
- 8 A. Palavecino Lamela
- 10 A. Montaño
- 7 N. Ibáñez
- 11 O. Ebere
Atlante
- 1 Ó. Jiménez Fabela
- 29 W. Portales
- 6 N. Carrera
- 4 E. Tercero Méndez
- 3 L. Sánchez Saucedo
- 34 E. Jiménez Sánchez
- 8 E. Pizzuto Puga
- 25 M. Fernández Figueira
- 19 L. Calzadilla Santillán
- 9 L. Puente Prado
- 7 J. Julio Palacios
Substitutes
- 6 É. Lira Méndez
- 19 C. Rodríguez Gómez
- 23 K. Mier Robles
- 20 J. Paradela
- 66 J. Suárez Belisario
- 21 G. Fernández Leites
- 49 J. Díaz González
- 28 R. Rubio
- 68 C. Valdivia Carrillo
- 258 E. Portillo
- 37 W. Clar Fritz
- 20 G. Adame
- 15 J. Charcopa Cabezas
- 16 J. González
- 17 L. Mejía Soto
- 21 J. Ibarra De La Rosa
- 27 A. Escobar Díaz
- 22 R. Barragán Casillas
- 184 Rubén Alejandro Coubert Pelayo
- 199 S. Garcia
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