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Liga MX

Cruz Azul - Atlante

08/02/2026, 03:00 AM

2 : 3
Expected Goals
Cruz Azul
1.4
Total xG
2.9
Atlante
1.6
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

1:2

9%

2:1

8%

0:2

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
CAATL

Cruz Azul

Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
-0.08
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
-0.04
José Paradela on the bench (10 goals, 10 assists)
Carlos RodrĂ­guez on the bench (8 goals, 6 assists)
Carlos Rotondi on the bench (6 goals, 7 assists)
40% of goal output missing (only 52% available)

Atlante

Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
+0.57
Full strength squad available

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.36
+0.36
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Cruz Azul: 68% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 2
    Cruz Azul: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

32%

Draw

28%

Away Win

40%

Goals

Over 1.5

80%

Under 1.5

20%

Over 2.5

56%

Under 2.5

44%

Over 3.5

33%

Under 3.5

67%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

60%

Away or Draw

68%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

60%

No

40%

Key Factors
  • Only 52% of the goal threat available, without JosĂ© Paradela, Carlos RodrĂ­guez, and Carlos Rotondi
  • Cruz Azul recently averaged 7.0 shots on target with 56% possession
  • The mathematical model projects a closely contested match with an away win probability of 40%
Risk Factors
  • Atlante concedes an average of 2.0 goals per away match
  • Limited data availability on head-to-head history and away team player form
Overview

Cruz Azul (3rd place, 6 points) host Atlante (14th place, 1 point) at Estadio Banorte

Liga MX match on August 2, 2026, 5:00 AM

Tight predictions despite the hosts leading in the standings

Form

Cruz Azul is in strong form with a record of WDWWW

The home side has recorded 4 wins and 1 draw recently

Atlante has had a slower start with a record of LD consisting of 0 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Cruz Azul scores 1.77 goals and concedes 1.09 goals on average per season

Solid home defense for the hosts with only 0.92 goals conceded per home game

Atlante averages 1.0 goal scored and 1.5 goals conceded per match

Away from home Atlante concedes an average of 2.0 goals

Goalkeepers

AndrĂ©s Gudiño starts in goal for Cruz Azul while Óscar JimĂ©nez is between the posts for Atlante

Influences

Home advantage for Cruz Azul at Estadio Banorte on grass

Matches at this venue average 3.2 goals per game

The BTTS rate at this stadium stands at 60%

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