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América – Santos Laguna3 : 0
Why the model thinks so
América
1.92
Total xG
2.66
Santos Laguna
0.74
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | América | Santos Laguna |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.67x league average) | −1.14 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.9 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | +0.34 | |
| High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match) | +0.34 | +0.34 |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.07 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 11, 7 places gap) | +0.07 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | −0.06 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 11 vs 4, 7 places gap) | −0.06 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.02 | |
| Álex Zendejas not in squad (12 goals, 7 assists) | ||
| Kevin Álvarez on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 43% of goal output missing (only 60% available) | ||
| Lucas Di Yorio on the bench (6 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 23% of goal output missing (only 80% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- The mathematical model calculates a 64% home win probability for América
- Santos Laguna conceded an average of 3.14 goals per away match this season
- América dominated recent games tactically with an average of 63.4% possession and 5.8 shots on target
Risks
- América is missing Álex Zendejas and Kevin Álvarez, leaving only 61% of their usual starting strength available
- The absence of starting goalkeeper L. Malagón Velázquez weakens the host's defensive structure
All probabilities
Result
América64%
Draw24%
Santos Laguna12%
Double chance
América or draw88%
Santos Laguna or draw36%
No draw76%
Goals
Over 1.576%
Under 1.524%
Over 2.550%
Under 2.550%
Over 3.528%
Under 3.572%
Both teams score
Yes46%
No54%
Most likely scores
2:0
13%
1:1
11%
2:1
10%
3:0
8%
3:1
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Santos Laguna with Diego Medina: 1.5 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Santos Laguna: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
- América with Jonathan dos Santos: 2.4 goals/game. Without: 0.7 goals/game (5 of 8 games)
Lineups
América 4-2-3-1 · Santos Laguna 4-2-3-1
América
- 30 R. Cota Robles
- 34 D. Espinoza Acosta
- 29 R. Del Castillo
- 4 S. Cáceres Ramos
- 26 C. Borja González
- 28 E. Sánchez Ocegueda
- 13 A. Cervantes Martín del Campo
- 12 I. Violante Romero
- 23 R. Cavalcante Veiga
- 20 A. Gutiérrez Torres
- 9 H. Martín Mex
Santos Laguna
- 1 C. Acevedo López
- 3 M. Cuevas
- 18 F. Pardo
- 25 F. Sanchez
- 17 E. Echeverría Mata
- 5 A. López Vargas
- 8 S. Mariscal Murra
- 10 E. Bullaude
- 21 F. Villalba Rodrigo
- 26 R. Sordo
- 19 E. Aguirre Lara
Substitutes
- 3 I. Reyes Romero
- 5 K. Álvarez Campos
- 2 E. Lara Contreras
- 7 P. Rodríguez Bravo
- 32 M. Vázquez García
- 33 P. Salas
- 21 F. Tapia Méndez
- 186 D. Arriaga García
- 27 Í. da Conceição
- 189 A. Cárdenas
- 7 D. Gonzalez Alcaraz
- 14 E. Orona Zavala
- 4 J. Abella Fanjul
- 6 J. Güemez López
- 33 H. Holguín
- 77 K. Palacios Salazar
- 9 L. Di Yorio
- 11 C. Gruezo Arboleda
- 22 K. Picón Álvarez
- 15 J. Mancha García
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