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Liga MX

América - Santos Laguna

08/02/2026, 11:00 PM

3 : 0
Expected Goals
América
1.9
Total xG
2.7
Santos Laguna
0.7
Most Likely Scores

2:0

13%

1:1

11%

2:1

10%

3:0

8%

3:1

6%
What influences the xG?
AMÉSL

América

Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 11, 7 places gap)
+0.07
Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
-0.06
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.02
Álex Zendejas not in squad (12 goals, 7 assists)
Kevin Álvarez on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
43% of goal output missing (only 60% available)

Santos Laguna

Attack weakness (0.67x league average)
-1.14
Defensive weakness (1.9 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)
+0.34
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.07
Standings disadvantage (pos 11 vs 4, 7 places gap)
-0.06
Lucas Di Yorio on the bench (6 goals, 3 assists)
23% of goal output missing (only 80% available)
Weak away record (1 vs 1.2 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match)
+0.34
+0.34
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Santos Laguna with Diego Medina: 1.5 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Santos Laguna: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes

  • 3
    América with Jonathan dos Santos: 2.4 goals/game. Without: 0.7 goals/game (5 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

64%

Draw

24%

Away Win

12%

Goals

Over 1.5

76%

Under 1.5

24%

Over 2.5

50%

Under 2.5

50%

Over 3.5

28%

Under 3.5

72%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

88%

Away or Draw

36%

No Draw

76%

Both Score

Yes

46%

No

54%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical model calculates a 64% home win probability for América
  • Santos Laguna conceded an average of 3.14 goals per away match this season
  • América dominated recent games tactically with an average of 63.4% possession and 5.8 shots on target
Risk Factors
  • América is missing Álex Zendejas and Kevin Álvarez, leaving only 61% of their usual starting strength available
  • The absence of starting goalkeeper L. Malagón Velázquez weakens the host's defensive structure
Overview

América (8th place, 4 points) host Santos Laguna (17th place, 0 points) at the Estadio Banorte

Liga MX match on August 2, 2026, 11:00 PM

The home side enters as the favorite

Form

América Form: LDDWD (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Santos Laguna Form: LLWLL

América remains stable with 1 win and 3 draws

Santos Laguna struggles with 4 losses in their last 5 matches

Statistics

América averages 1.61 goals scored and 1.16 goals conceded per match

Santos Laguna concedes an average of 3.14 goals per away game

América kept 7 clean sheets at home this season

Head-to-Head

A total of 4 head-to-head matches

3 wins for América, 0 wins for Santos Laguna, and 1 draw

The last match ended in a 1:1 draw on April 5, 2026

Key Players

Isaías Violante with 2 goals and 4 assists this season

Raphael Veiga contributed 2 goals and 2 assists with a 7.06 rating

Cristián Borja provided 3 assists with a 6.93 average rating

Ezequiel Bullaude leads Santos Laguna with 5 goals and 4 assists (7.02 rating)

Aldo López recorded 4 goals and 1 assist (6.83 rating)

Fran Villalba shows a rising form trend with a 7.20 rating

Not nominated for Santos Laguna: Lucas Di Yorio (6 goals, 3 assists)

Goalkeepers

Rodolfo Cota for América with 12 appearances and a 6.77 average rating

Carlos Acevedo for Santos Laguna with 32 appearances and a strong 7.73 rating in recent games

América kept 11 clean sheets compared to 6 for Santos Laguna this season

Influences

Home match on grass at Estadio Banorte

The stadium averages 3.4 goals per match historically

América displays strong home form with 1.57 goals scored per home match

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