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Liga MX

Toluca - Necaxa

08/03/2026, 01:05 AM

3 : 1
Expected Goals
Toluca
2.4
Total xG
3.3
Necaxa
0.8
Most Likely Scores

2:0

11%

2:1

9%

3:0

9%

1:1

9%

3:1

8%
What influences the xG?
TOLNEC

Toluca

Attack strength (1.45x league average)
+1.38
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.20
Declining form (1.4 vs 2.1 season average)
-0.20
Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 13, 12 places gap)
+0.14
Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
-0.09
Diego Barbosa on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
PĂĄvel PĂ©rez on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
Strong home record (2.7 vs 2.1 goals/match)

Necaxa

Attack weakness (0.58x league average)
-0.94
Defensive weakness (1.7 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)
+0.14
Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 1, 12 places gap)
-0.11
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.05
Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.4 goals/match)
Full strength squad available

League

High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match)
+0.34
+0.34
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Toluca with Alexis Vega: 2 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Necaxa: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)

  • 3
    Necaxa: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

  • 4
    Necaxa: 71% of xG value comes in the second half (last 7 games with xG data)

  • 5
    Toluca: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

72%

Draw

18%

Away Win

10%

Goals

Over 1.5

85%

Under 1.5

15%

Over 2.5

63%

Under 2.5

37%

Over 3.5

41%

Under 3.5

59%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

90%

Away or Draw

28%

No Draw

82%

Both Score

Yes

52%

No

48%

Key Factors
  • Matchup advantage: Toluca's strong home offense (avg. 1.85 goals) faces a highly vulnerable Necaxa defense conceding 2.35 goals per away match
  • Tactical dominance: Toluca controlled possession in recent matches (averaging 61%) and registered an average of 5.4 shots on target per game
  • Historical dominance: Toluca has won all four recent head-to-head matches, boasting a clear 14-4 goal difference
Risk Factors
  • Declining form: Toluca's goal production has stalled recently, averaging 1.4 goals compared to their season average of 2.1
  • Key midfield absence: Toluca has to cope without the injured key player M. Ruiz SuĂĄrez
  • Away vulnerability: Necaxa concedes a worrying average of 2.35 goals per away match
Overview

Toluca (13th place, 3 points) hosts Necaxa (4th place, 6 points) at the Estadio Nemesio DĂ­ez

Liga MX match on August 3, 2026, 3:05 AM

Toluca looks to bounce back from a mixed start while Necaxa aims to keep their perfect record

Form

Toluca with mixed form of WLLWL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Last match ended in a 1-2 home defeat against Pumas UNAM

Necaxa in good form with DDLWW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

The visitors are on a two-match winning streak, recently beating Monterrey 2-1

Statistics

Toluca is strong offensively, averaging 1.86 goals scored per game this season

Their defense remains solid with 1.02 goals conceded per match

Necaxa shows significant weaknesses on the road, conceding an average of 2.35 goals per away game

The visitors have conceded 1.68 goals per game overall this season

Head-to-Head

Toluca dominates the head-to-head record with 4 wins from 4 matches

The goal difference stands at a dominant 14-4 in favor of Toluca

The last meeting ended in a clear 3-0 away win for Toluca on February 22, 2026

Necaxa failed to secure a single point in the last four encounters

Key Players

Alexis Vega shines as top scorer with 4 goals and 12 assists

JesĂșs Angulo contributes 7 goals and 5 assists from midfield

Jorge DĂ­az is in rising form, scoring 2 goals in his last 5 appearances

JuliĂĄn Carranza is in excellent shape, scoring 3 goals in recent matches

Javier Ruiz is a dangerous goalscoring midfielder with 5 goals this season

Danny Leyva pulls the strings in midfield and has already provided 3 assists this campaign

Goalkeepers

Luis GarcĂ­a has played 20 matches this season, recording 5 clean sheets at home

Luis Jiménez has made only one appearance this campaign, earning a rating of 6.54

Influences

Estadio Nemesio DĂ­ez averages a high-scoring 3.4 goals per match

Toluca's home record highlights their strength at home, averaging 1.85 goals scored

The historical BTTS rate at the stadium is a very high 80%

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