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Toluca – Necaxa3 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Toluca
2.43
Total xG
3.26
Necaxa
0.82
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Toluca | Necaxa |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.45x league average) | +1.38 | |
| Attack weakness (0.58x league average) | −0.94 | |
| High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match) | +0.34 | +0.34 |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.20 | |
| Declining form (1.4 vs 2.1 season average) | −0.20 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.7 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | +0.14 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 13, 12 places gap) | +0.14 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 1, 12 places gap) | −0.11 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | −0.09 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.05 | |
| Diego Barbosa on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Pável Pérez on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (2.7 vs 2.1 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.4 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Matchup advantage: Toluca's strong home offense (avg. 1.85 goals) faces a highly vulnerable Necaxa defense conceding 2.35 goals per away match
- Tactical dominance: Toluca controlled possession in recent matches (averaging 61%) and registered an average of 5.4 shots on target per game
- Historical dominance: Toluca has won all four recent head-to-head matches, boasting a clear 14-4 goal difference
Risks
- Declining form: Toluca's goal production has stalled recently, averaging 1.4 goals compared to their season average of 2.1
- Key midfield absence: Toluca has to cope without the injured key player M. Ruiz Suárez
- Away vulnerability: Necaxa concedes a worrying average of 2.35 goals per away match
All probabilities
Result
Toluca72%
Draw18%
Necaxa10%
Double chance
Toluca or draw90%
Necaxa or draw28%
No draw82%
Goals
Over 1.585%
Under 1.515%
Over 2.563%
Under 2.537%
Over 3.541%
Under 3.559%
Both teams score
Yes52%
No48%
Most likely scores
2:0
11%
2:1
9%
3:0
9%
1:1
9%
3:1
8%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Toluca with Alexis Vega: 2 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Necaxa: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)
- Necaxa: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
- Necaxa: 71% of xG value comes in the second half (last 7 games with xG data)
- Toluca: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
Toluca 4-2-3-1 · Necaxa 5-3-2
Toluca
- 22 L. García Palomera
- 19 S. Simón
- 6 A. Pereira Castelnoble
- 25 E. López
- 20 J. Gallardo Vasconcelos
- 29 J. Díaz Price
- 5 F. Romero
- 10 J. Angulo Uriarte
- 35 É. Gutiérrez Galaviz
- 9 E. Vega Rojas
- 21 E. López Rodríguez
Necaxa
- 12 L. Jiménez González
- 99 Miguel Rodriguez
- 33 R. Martínez Ruiz
- 4 A. Peña López
- 3 A. Oliveros Cano
- 88 C. Vargas Tenorio
- 8 L. Faravelli
- 6 D. Leyva
- 10 J. Ruiz
- 11 J. Torres Patiño
- 9 J. Carranza
Substitutes
- 16 F. Viñas Barboza
- 7 V. Guzmán Guzmán
- 17 B. García Carpizo
- 1 H. González Durán
- 4 B. Méndez Cittadini
- 11 H. Nunes de Castro
- 13 L. Garcia Teixeira
- 15 P. Uriel Perez Hernandez
- 24 F. Arce Juárez
- 3 A. Briseño Vázquez
- 5 K. Marques Naves
- 16 P. Pedraza Reyna
- 30 R. Monreal Morales
- 17 R. Cortéz Pineda
- 14 M. Zaleta
- 20 F. Méndez Lara
- 1 C. Andrade Martín
- 21 M. Espíndola
- 90 J. Valencia Longa
- 27 M. Pedroza
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