Match report →
León – Pachuca1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
León
1.40
Total xG
2.59
Pachuca
1.19
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | León | Pachuca |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (1.9 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | +0.72 | |
| Attack weakness (0.77x league average) | −0.56 | |
| Attack strength (1.2x league average) | +0.48 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.15 | |
| Rising form (1.6 vs 1.1 season average) | +0.15 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 17 vs 9, 8 places gap) | −0.12 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 9 vs 17, 8 places gap) | +0.05 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.01 | |
| Ismael Díaz not in squad (10 goals, 6 assists) | ||
| Díber Cambindo on the bench (8 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Salvador Reyes on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 62% of goal output missing (only 44% available) | ||
| Víctor Alfonso Guzmán Guzmán not in squad (5 goals, 8 assists) | ||
| Kenedy on the bench (9 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Enner Valencia not in squad (8 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Brian García not in squad (1 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| 50% of goal output missing (only 51% available) | ||
| Strong home record (1.5 vs 1.1 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Only 45% of León's goal threat is available, with Ismael Díaz, Díber Cambindo, and Salvador Reyes missing
- Only 51% of Pachuca's goal threat is available, with Víctor Alfonso Guzmán Guzmán, Kenedy, Enner Valencia, and Brian García missing
- León averaged 5.4 shots on target with 56.4% possession in recent matches
Risks
- León concedes 1.85 goals on average per season and 2.4 goals in recent matches
- Pachuca averaged only 3.6 shots on target per match in recent games
- Limited data on duel statistics for the last 5 matches
All probabilities
Result
León40%
Draw30%
Pachuca30%
Double chance
León or draw70%
Pachuca or draw60%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.575%
Under 1.525%
Over 2.548%
Under 2.552%
Over 3.526%
Under 3.574%
Both teams score
Yes54%
No46%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
9%
1:2
7%
2:0
7%
0:2
5%
1:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- León: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Pachuca with Víctor Alfonso Guzmán Guzmán: 0.8 goals/game. Without: 2 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Pachuca: 68% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)
- León with Valentín Gauthier: 1.8 goals/game. Without: 1 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
Lineups
León 4-1-4-1 · Pachuca 4-2-3-1
León
- 23 O. García
- 7 I. Moreno Füguemann
- 14 J. Romaña Espitia
- 3 J. Guevara
- 5 S. Vegas Orellana
- 29 J. Rodríguez Rebollar
- 16 J. Cortizo de la Piedra
- 20 R. Echeverría Sáez
- 6 F. Beltrán Cruz
- 18 E. Guerra
- 13 D. Arcila
Pachuca
- 25 C. Moreno
- 22 A. Mozo Rodríguez
- 4 E. dos Santos Bauermann
- 2 S. Barreto
- 15 F. Venegas Moreno
- 16 C. Rivera Cuéllar
- 10 E. Montiel
- 21 J. Vallejo
- 7 R. Pizarro Thomas
- 11 O. Idrissi
- 23 J. Rondón Giménez
Substitutes
- 4 B. Colula Alarcón
- 25 P. Bellón Saracho
- 22 S. Santos
- 35 L. Valadez Padilla
- 27 D. Cambindo Abonia
- 185 C. Mora Espinoza
- 203 J. Aldair Lara Sánchez
- 181 I. Gutiérrez
- 247 I. Salinas
- 197 G. Rentería
- 9 A. Alcaraz Torales
- 19 I. Hernandez Vargas
- 13 J. Berlanga
- 14 C. Sánchez Nava
- 8 A. Domínguez Figueroa
- 26 A. Bautista Gutiérrez
- 31 J. Eulogio Téllez
- 6 M. Isaís
- 211 C. Alcántara
- 187 G. Álvarez Montiel
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