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Liga MX

León - Pachuca

08/02/2026, 01:06 AM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
León
1.4
Total xG
2.6
Pachuca
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

1:2

7%

2:0

7%

0:2

5%
What influences the xG?
LEÓPAC

León

Defensive strength (1.9 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.72
Attack strength (1.2x league average)
+0.48
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.15
Rising form (1.6 vs 1.1 season average)
+0.15
Standings disadvantage (pos 17 vs 9, 8 places gap)
-0.12
Ismael Díaz not in squad (10 goals, 6 assists)
Díber Cambindo on the bench (8 goals, 2 assists)
Salvador Reyes on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
62% of goal output missing (only 44% available)
Strong home record (1.5 vs 1.1 goals/match)

Pachuca

Attack weakness (0.77x league average)
-0.56
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Standings advantage (pos 9 vs 17, 8 places gap)
+0.05
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.01
Víctor Alfonso Guzmán Guzmán not in squad (5 goals, 8 assists)
Kenedy on the bench (9 goals, 2 assists)
Enner Valencia not in squad (8 goals, 1 assists)
Brian García not in squad (1 goals, 4 assists)
50% of goal output missing (only 51% available)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    León: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 2
    Pachuca with Víctor Alfonso Guzmán Guzmán: 0.8 goals/game. Without: 2 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Pachuca: 68% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 4
    León with Valentín Gauthier: 1.8 goals/game. Without: 1 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

40%

Draw

30%

Away Win

30%

Goals

Over 1.5

75%

Under 1.5

25%

Over 2.5

48%

Under 2.5

52%

Over 3.5

26%

Under 3.5

74%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

70%

Away or Draw

60%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

54%

No

46%

Key Factors
  • Only 45% of León's goal threat is available, with Ismael Díaz, Díber Cambindo, and Salvador Reyes missing
  • Only 51% of Pachuca's goal threat is available, with Víctor Alfonso Guzmán Guzmán, Kenedy, Enner Valencia, and Brian García missing
  • León averaged 5.4 shots on target with 56.4% possession in recent matches
Risk Factors
  • León concedes 1.85 goals on average per season and 2.4 goals in recent matches
  • Pachuca averaged only 3.6 shots on target per match in recent games
  • Limited data on duel statistics for the last 5 matches
Overview

León (17th place, 0 points) vs Pachuca (9th place, 3 points) at Estadio León

Liga MX match on August 2, 2026, 3:06 AM

León under pressure after two consecutive losses

The mathematical model calculates a home win probability of 40%

Form

León's form: WLLLL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

León with 1 win and 4 losses recently

Pachuca's form: WWLWL

Pachuca with 3 wins and 2 losses recently

Statistics

León scores an average of 1.06 goals and concedes 1.85 goals per season

Pachuca averages 1.35 goals scored and 1.1 goals conceded

In León's home games, they average 1.04 goals scored and 1.04 conceded

Pachuca averages 1.32 goals scored and 1.32 conceded away from home

Head-to-Head

4 head-to-head matches in the database

Even record with 1 win each and 2 draws

The last meeting ended 2-1 for the away team on January 14, 2026

Key Players

Iván Moreno has 1 goal and 5 assists in 33 appearances with a 6.6 rating

Fernando Beltrán contributed 3 goals and 2 assists in 31 games (6.92 rating)

Daniel Arcila scored 4 goals in 21 appearances with a 6.81 rating

Oussama Idrissi shines with 6 goals, 3 assists, and a 6.93 rating in 34 matches

Elías Montiel recorded 2 goals and 5 assists in 20 games with a 7.03 rating

Salomón Rondón has scored 5 goals in 20 appearances with a 6.86 rating

Goalkeepers

Óscar García is in goal for León, with 6 clean sheets in 28 appearances

Carlos Agustín Moreno Luna guards Pachuca's goal, keeping 10 clean sheets in 39 matches

Influences

Estadio León features a natural grass surface

The stadium historically hosts high-scoring matches, averaging 3.8 goals per game

Both Over 2.5 goals (80% of matches) and Both Teams to Score (60%) are frequent occurrences here

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