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Liga MX

Juárez - Pumas UNAM

08/01/2026, 03:00 AM

1 : 5
Expected Goals
Juárez
1.7
Total xG
2.5
Pumas UNAM
0.8
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

2:0

12%

2:1

10%

3:0

7%

3:1

5%
What influences the xG?
JUÁPU

Juárez

Attack strength (1.37x league average)
+0.65
Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
+0.46
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.14
Declining form (1 vs 1.5 season average)
-0.14
Full strength squad available

Pumas UNAM

Attack weakness (0.51x league average)
-0.96
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.26
Declining form (1 vs 1.7 season average)
-0.20
Jordán Carrillo not in squad (6 goals, 3 assists)
10% of goal output missing (only 87% available)
Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.7 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Juárez with José Juan Manríquez: 1.3 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Juárez: scored only in H2 in 4 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)

  • 3
    Juárez: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 4
    Pumas UNAM with Santiago Trigos Nava: 0.5 goals/game. Without: 2 goals/game (4 of 8 games)

  • 5
    Pumas UNAM: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

58%

Draw

26%

Away Win

15%

Goals

Over 1.5

73%

Under 1.5

27%

Over 2.5

46%

Under 2.5

54%

Over 3.5

25%

Under 3.5

75%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

85%

Away or Draw

42%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

46%

No

54%

Key Factors
  • Juárez has played counter-oriented recently with an average of 42.6% possession while Pumas averaged a more balanced game
  • Goal production is stalling for both teams recently with an average of only 1.0 goals per game compared to their higher season average
  • The model predicts a 58% home win probability for Juárez and expects 1.73 home goals
Risk Factors
  • Juárez has conceded an average of 2.0 goals per game recently
  • Pumas averaged only 1.8 shots on target per game recently
Overview

Juárez host Pumas UNAM at Estadio Olímpico Benito Juárez

Liga MX match on August 1, 2026, 3:00 AM

Bottom-placed Juárez (18th place, 0 points) face 12th-placed Pumas UNAM (3 points)

Both teams seek a breakthrough after a difficult start to the season

Form

Juárez form in recent matches is LLWLL with 1 win and 4 losses (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Pumas UNAM travel with a form of WDLLW consisting of 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses

Juárez lost their last two games while Pumas recorded a win in their last match

Statistics

Juárez scored an average of 1.5 goals and conceded 1.74 goals this season

Pumas UNAM average 1.63 goals scored and 1.32 goals conceded

Juárez is solid at home with an average of 1.5 goals scored per game

Pumas UNAM concede an average of 1.5 goals per away game

Head-to-Head

In 5 head-to-head matches Juárez won 1, Pumas won 2 and 2 ended in a draw

The last meeting ended in a 4-2 win for Pumas UNAM

The overall goal ratio stands at 7 to 8 in favor of Pumas

Key Players

Óscar Estupiñán scored 15 goals in 32 season appearances for the home team

Robert Morales has registered 9 goals in 23 appearances for the visitors

Pedro Vite impresses in Pumas midfield with a rising form trend

Not nominated: Jordán Carrillo (6 goals / 3 assists)

Goalkeepers

Sebastián Jurado plays in goal for Juárez with a rising form trend

Keylor Navas guards the goal for Pumas UNAM with a stable season performance

Influences

The match is played on grass at the Estadio Olímpico Benito Juárez

In the last 5 home matches there the average was 2.8 goals per game

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