Match report →
Juárez – Pumas UNAM1 : 5
Why the model thinks so
Juárez
1.73
Total xG
2.52
Pumas UNAM
0.79
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Juárez | Pumas UNAM |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.51x league average) | −0.96 | |
| Attack strength (1.37x league average) | +0.65 | |
| Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.46 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.26 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.7 season average) | −0.20 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.14 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.5 season average) | −0.14 | |
| Jordán Carrillo not in squad (6 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 10% of goal output missing (only 87% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.7 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Juárez has played counter-oriented recently with an average of 42.6% possession while Pumas averaged a more balanced game
- Goal production is stalling for both teams recently with an average of only 1.0 goals per game compared to their higher season average
- The model predicts a 58% home win probability for Juárez and expects 1.73 home goals
Risks
- Juárez has conceded an average of 2.0 goals per game recently
- Pumas averaged only 1.8 shots on target per game recently
All probabilities
Result
Juárez58%
Draw26%
Pumas UNAM15%
Double chance
Juárez or draw85%
Pumas UNAM or draw42%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.573%
Under 1.527%
Over 2.546%
Under 2.554%
Over 3.525%
Under 3.575%
Both teams score
Yes46%
No54%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
2:0
12%
2:1
10%
3:0
7%
3:1
5%
1:5
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Juárez with José Juan Manríquez: 1.3 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Juárez: scored only in H2 in 4 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)
- Juárez: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Pumas UNAM with Santiago Trigos Nava: 0.5 goals/game. Without: 2 goals/game (4 of 8 games)
- Pumas UNAM: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
Juárez 5-4-1 · Pumas UNAM 4-2-3-1
Juárez
- 1 S. Jurado Roca
- 33 F. Nevarez Pulgarin
- 2 G. Sepúlveda López
- 3 J. Murillo Largacha
- 23 Ó. Ortega Gatica
- 4 M. Mayorga Almaráz
- 10 Í. Torres Ramírez
- 5 D. García Bojórquez
- 8 G. Castilho Carvalho
- 11 J. Rodríguez Francis
- 19 O. Estupiñán Vallesilla
Pumas UNAM
- 1 K. Navas Gamboa
- 7 R. López Quiñones
- 6 N. da Silva
- 5 R. Duarte Sánchez
- 77 Á. Angulo Mosquera
- 18 V. Arteaga Camarena
- 45 P. Vite Uca
- 21 C. Antuna Romero
- 17 F. Córdova Reyes
- 23 O. Vieira dos Santos Júnior
- 31 R. Morales
Substitutes
- 6 Monchu
- 21 R. Oliveira António
- 198 R. Mendoza
- 20 J. Aquino Carmona
- 29 E. Ayon
- 7 R. Fulgencio Román
- 183 L. Silva
- 201 J. Carmona Núñez
- 27 G. Ruiz Ortiz
- 9 G. Martínez Ayala
- 8 A. Carrasquilla Alcázar
- 14 L. Herrera
- 24 A. Leone Larios
- 12 C. Calderón Del Real
- 2 P. Bennevendo Peña
- 20 S. Trigos Nava
- 34 ?. Azuaje García
- 22 A. Medina Camacho
- 35 P. Lara Nevarez
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →