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Liga MX

Monterrey - Juárez

08/16/2026, 01:10 AM

6 : 1
Expected Goals
Monterrey
1.9
Total xG
2.8
Juárez
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

11%

2:0

11%

2:1

10%

3:0

7%

3:1

6%
What influences the xG?
MONJUÁ

Monterrey

Attack strength (1.36x league average)
+0.80
Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+0.18
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.02
Jesús Corona on the bench (4 goals, 4 assists)
22% of goal output missing (only 85% available)

Juárez

Attack weakness (0.52x league average)
-0.90
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.14
Declining form (1 vs 1.4 season average)
-0.14
Jairo Torres on the bench (4 goals, 2 assists)
Francisco Nevárez on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)
Weak away record (1 vs 1.4 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.39
+0.39
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Monterrey: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 2
    Juárez: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (3 of 8 total)

  • 3
    Juárez with José Juan Manríquez: 1.4 goals/game. Without: 0.3 goals/game (5 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Monterrey: 74% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 5
    Juárez: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

61%

Draw

24%

Away Win

15%

Goals

Over 1.5

78%

Under 1.5

22%

Over 2.5

53%

Under 2.5

47%

Over 3.5

31%

Under 3.5

69%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

85%

Away or Draw

39%

No Draw

76%

Both Score

Yes

51%

No

49%

Key Factors
  • Clear favorite role for Monterrey with a calculated home win probability of 61%
  • Monterrey averaged 5.4 shots on target in recent matches compared to only 2.2 for Juárez
  • Downward trend for Juárez with three consecutive losses and an increased average of 2.4 goals conceded in recent games
Risk Factors
  • Juárez concede an average of 2.25 goals per away game this season
  • The last head-to-head match ended in a 2-2 draw
Overview

Monterrey (5th place, 6 points) host Juárez (18th place, 0 points) at Estadio BBVA Bancomer

Liga MX match on August 16, 2026, 3:10 AM

Monterrey look to keep pace with the top of the table while Juárez sit at the bottom after three defeats

Form

Monterrey enter with a form of WLWLW in recent matches

The hosts recorded three wins and two losses recently

Juárez show a form of LWLLL with just one win and four defeats

The visitors are currently on a three-match losing streak

Statistics

Monterrey score an average of 1.62 goals and concede 1.10 at home

Juárez concede an average of 2.25 goals away while scoring 1.50

Monterrey kept six clean sheets at home this season

Juárez managed to keep only one clean sheet in their away matches

Head-to-Head

In four head-to-head matches, Monterrey won twice while Juárez won once

The last encounter ended in a 2-2 draw on March 14, 2026

A total of 18 goals were scored across these matchups

Key Players

Lucas Ocampos has 7 goals, 6 assists this season and scored 5 goals in his last 5 matches

Óliver Torres has recorded 2 goals and 8 assists in 33 appearances

Luca Orellano contributed 3 goals and 4 assists this season

Óscar Estupiñán is the visitors' biggest threat with 15 goals and 3 assists

José Luis Rodríguez has registered 4 goals and 9 assists in 37 appearances

Guilherme Castilho contributed 7 goals and 2 assists so far this season

Not nominated: Jesús Corona (4 goals, 4 assists)

Not nominated: Jairo Torres (4 goals, 2 assists) and Francisco Nevárez (2 goals, 1 assist)

Goalkeepers

Luis Cárdenas has played 21 games this season for the hosts, who kept 10 clean sheets overall

Sebastián Jurado started 38 matches for the visitors, who recorded 3 clean sheets in total

Influences

Estadio BBVA Bancomer averaged 3.6 goals per game in recent matches

The match will be played on natural grass

Monterrey benefit from a stable home record with only 1.10 goals conceded per game

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