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Liga MX

Tijuana - Cruz Azul

08/17/2026, 03:00 AM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Tijuana
1.2
Total xG
2.6
Cruz Azul
1.4
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:2

9%

2:1

8%

0:2

7%

2:0

6%
What influences the xG?
TIJCA

Tijuana

Rising form (2.3 vs 1.7 season average)
+0.20
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.08
16% of goal output missing (only 87% available)

Cruz Azul

Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
-0.11
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
-0.04
Carlos Rotondi not in squad (6 goals, 7 assists)
AgustĂ­n Palavecino on the bench (6 goals, 3 assists)
Willer Ditta on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
Gonzalo Piovi on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
10% of goal output missing (only 84% available)
Weak away record (1.4 vs 1.9 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match)
+0.34
+0.34
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Tijuana: first goal in 5 of 6 games (83%)

  • 2
    Cruz Azul: 74% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 3
    Cruz Azul: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 4
    Cruz Azul: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

  • 5
    Tijuana with Gilberto Mora: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 2 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

31%

Draw

30%

Away Win

39%

Goals

Over 1.5

74%

Under 1.5

26%

Over 2.5

47%

Under 2.5

53%

Over 3.5

26%

Under 3.5

74%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

61%

Away or Draw

69%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

54%

No

46%

Key Factors
  • Tijuana currently scores more frequently (2.3) than their season average (1.7), while Cruz Azul also averages 2.3 goals recently
  • Tactical contrast: Cruz Azul recently dominated possession (60%), while Tijuana averaged a counter-attacking style (42% possession)
  • Tight mathematical model: The prediction model calculates a 39% win probability for Cruz Azul and 31% for Tijuana
Risk Factors
  • Cruz Azul will miss key players Carlos Rotondi (6 goals, 7 assists) and Agustin Palavecino (6 goals, 3 assists)
  • Cruz Azul concedes more goals away from home on average (1.30) than their overall average (1.09)
Overview

Tijuana (5th place, 7 points) host Cruz Azul (8th place, 6 points) at Estadio Caliente

Liga MX match on August 17, 2026, 5:00 AM

A close mid-table clash is expected

Form

Tijuana is unbeaten in 5 matches with form WDWWD

The hosts recorded 3 wins and 2 draws recently

Cruz Azul holds a form of DWWWL, suffering a loss in their last match

Statistics

Tijuana scores an average of 1.46 goals and concedes 1.24 goals this season

Strong home defense with only 0.57 goals conceded per game on average

Cruz Azul averages 1.77 goals scored and 1.09 goals conceded per match

Head-to-Head

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, both teams got 2 wins and 1 draw

The goal difference in these meetings is 8:7 in favor of Tijuana

The last match ended in a 1:1 draw on April 18, 2026

Key Players

Gilberto Mora scored 6 goals this season with an average rating of 6.97

José Paradela has 10 goals and 10 assists this season

Carlos RodrĂ­guez contributed 8 goals and 6 assists so far

Goalkeepers

Antonio RodrĂ­guez made 37 appearances for Tijuana with an average rating of 7.2

Kevin Mier started 26 matches for Cruz Azul with a rating average of 6.76

Tijuana recorded 13 clean sheets, while Cruz Azul kept 12 clean sheets

Influences

The match will be played on artificial turf

Tijuana's record on artificial turf stands at 4 wins, 5 draws, and 1 loss with a 12:7 goal difference

Cruz Azul's record on this surface shows 1 win, 1 draw, and 1 loss

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