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Premier League

Crystal Palace - Leeds United

03/15/2026, 02:00 PM

0 : 0
Expected Goals
Crystal Palace
1.7
Total xG
3.0
Leeds United
1.4
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

2:1

9%

1:2

7%

2:0

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
CPLU

Crystal Palace

3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Rising form (1.8 vs 1.4 season average)
+0.10
Adam Wharton on the bench (0 goals, 5 assists)
Daniel Muñoz not in squad (3 goals, 2 assists)
12% of goal output missing (only 80% available)
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
Strong home record (1.7 vs 1.4 goals/match)

Leeds United

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.14
Declining form (1 vs 1.5 season average)
-0.14
Jayden Bogle on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)
Ilia Gruev on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists)
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

44%

Draw

27%

Away Win

30%

Goals

Over 1.5

82%

Under 1.5

18%

Over 2.5

59%

Under 2.5

41%

Over 3.5

36%

Under 3.5

64%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

70%

Away or Draw

56%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

62%

No

38%

Key Factors
  • Pipeline analysis: Crystal Palace is favored with a 44% win probability and 1.68 expected goals
  • Form trend: Crystal Palace is currently scoring more frequently (1.8) than their season average (1.4), while Leeds United's goal production is stagnant (1.0)
  • Defensive matchup advantage: Crystal Palace's home defense (1.5 goals conceded) is more stable than Leeds' away defense (2.33 goals conceded)
Risk Factors
  • Crystal Palace had only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Leeds United concedes an average of 2.33 goals per away game
Overview

Crystal Palace (14th place, 38 points) host Leeds United (15th place, 31 points) at Selhurst Park

The Premier League match will take place on March 15, 2026, 3:00 PM

Both teams are in the mid-table, with Crystal Palace seven points ahead of Leeds United

Form

Crystal Palace shows a form of WWLWD (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss) in their last five games across all competitions

The team recorded 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with a draw as their last result

Leeds United's form is DDLLW

They achieved 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses in their last five games and won their most recent match

Statistics

Crystal Palace scores an average of 1.14 goals per game this season and concedes an average of 1.21 goals

Leeds United's offense is slightly stronger with 1.28 goals per game, but their defense concedes an average of 1.66 goals per match

Crystal Palace kept 10 clean sheets, Leeds United 4

For Crystal Palace, over 2.5 goals were scored in 14 matches, for Leeds United in 16

At Selhurst Park, an average of 2.4 goals per game are scored

Both teams scored in 40% of the matches, and 40% of the matches ended with over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

In the last five head-to-head matches, the record between Crystal Palace and Leeds United is even with 2 wins for each team and 1 draw

Crystal Palace scored 8 goals in these encounters, while Leeds United scored 7 goals

The last meeting on December 20, 2025, was won by Leeds United away with a score of 1:4

Key Players

For Crystal Palace, JĂžrgen Strand Larsen with 3 season goals and a rising form (2 goals in 1 of 5 games), IsmaĂŻla Sarr with 7 season goals, and Maxence Lacroix with 1 season goal and 2 assists are important players

Also not nominated are Adam Wharton (0 Goals, 5 Assists) and Daniel Muñoz (3 Goals, 2 Assists)

For Leeds United, Dominic Calvert-Lewin with 10 season goals and Lukas Nmecha with 6 season goals and a rising form (1 goal, 1 assist in 1 of 5 games) stand out

Anton Stach has scored 4 goals and provided 3 assists this season and shows stable form

Goalkeepers

Crystal Palace goalkeeper Walter BenĂ­tez has had no appearances this season and therefore no clean sheets

Karl Darlow of Leeds United has achieved 0 clean sheets in 13 appearances this season

Crystal Palace has a total of 10 clean sheets, Leeds United 4

Influences

Crystal Palace has a home advantage at Selhurst Park, with an average of 1.17 goals scored and 1.5 goals conceded in home games

Leeds United's away record shows 1.25 goals scored and a high 2.33 goals conceded per away game

Venue data indicates 2.4 goals per game, with both teams scoring in 40% of matches and 40% ending with over 2.5 goals

The match will be played on grass

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