Premier League
Crystal Palace - Leeds United
03/15/2026, 02:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.7
3.0
1.4
1:1
12%2:1
9%1:2
7%2:0
7%2:2
6%What influences the xG?
Crystal Palace
Leeds United
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
44%
Draw
27%
Away Win
30%
Goals
Over 1.5
82%
Under 1.5
18%
Over 2.5
59%
Under 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
36%
Under 3.5
64%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
70%
Away or Draw
56%
No Draw
73%
Both Score
Yes
62%
No
38%
Key Factors
- Pipeline analysis: Crystal Palace is favored with a 44% win probability and 1.68 expected goals
- Form trend: Crystal Palace is currently scoring more frequently (1.8) than their season average (1.4), while Leeds United's goal production is stagnant (1.0)
- Defensive matchup advantage: Crystal Palace's home defense (1.5 goals conceded) is more stable than Leeds' away defense (2.33 goals conceded)
Risk Factors
- Crystal Palace had only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Leeds United concedes an average of 2.33 goals per away game
Overview
Crystal Palace (14th place, 38 points) host Leeds United (15th place, 31 points) at Selhurst Park
The Premier League match will take place on March 15, 2026, 3:00 PM
Both teams are in the mid-table, with Crystal Palace seven points ahead of Leeds United
Form
Crystal Palace shows a form of WWLWD (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss) in their last five games across all competitions
The team recorded 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with a draw as their last result
Leeds United's form is DDLLW
They achieved 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses in their last five games and won their most recent match
Statistics
Crystal Palace scores an average of 1.14 goals per game this season and concedes an average of 1.21 goals
Leeds United's offense is slightly stronger with 1.28 goals per game, but their defense concedes an average of 1.66 goals per match
Crystal Palace kept 10 clean sheets, Leeds United 4
For Crystal Palace, over 2.5 goals were scored in 14 matches, for Leeds United in 16
At Selhurst Park, an average of 2.4 goals per game are scored
Both teams scored in 40% of the matches, and 40% of the matches ended with over 2.5 goals
Head-to-Head
In the last five head-to-head matches, the record between Crystal Palace and Leeds United is even with 2 wins for each team and 1 draw
Crystal Palace scored 8 goals in these encounters, while Leeds United scored 7 goals
The last meeting on December 20, 2025, was won by Leeds United away with a score of 1:4
Key Players
For Crystal Palace, JĂžrgen Strand Larsen with 3 season goals and a rising form (2 goals in 1 of 5 games), IsmaĂŻla Sarr with 7 season goals, and Maxence Lacroix with 1 season goal and 2 assists are important players
Also not nominated are Adam Wharton (0 Goals, 5 Assists) and Daniel Muñoz (3 Goals, 2 Assists)
For Leeds United, Dominic Calvert-Lewin with 10 season goals and Lukas Nmecha with 6 season goals and a rising form (1 goal, 1 assist in 1 of 5 games) stand out
Anton Stach has scored 4 goals and provided 3 assists this season and shows stable form
Goalkeepers
Crystal Palace goalkeeper Walter BenĂtez has had no appearances this season and therefore no clean sheets
Karl Darlow of Leeds United has achieved 0 clean sheets in 13 appearances this season
Crystal Palace has a total of 10 clean sheets, Leeds United 4
Influences
Crystal Palace has a home advantage at Selhurst Park, with an average of 1.17 goals scored and 1.5 goals conceded in home games
Leeds United's away record shows 1.25 goals scored and a high 2.33 goals conceded per away game
Venue data indicates 2.4 goals per game, with both teams scoring in 40% of matches and 40% ending with over 2.5 goals
The match will be played on grass