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Liga MX

Pachuca - Puebla

08/18/2026, 03:06 AM

2 : 3
Expected Goals
Pachuca
1.5
Total xG
2.2
Puebla
0.7
Most Likely Scores

1:0

14%

1:1

13%

0:0

12%

2:0

12%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
PACPUE

Pachuca

Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.32
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.12
Declining form (1 vs 1.4 season average)
-0.12
Standings advantage (pos 9 vs 18, 9 places gap)
+0.06
Christian Rivera not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)

Puebla

Attack weakness (0.65x league average)
-0.70
Standings disadvantage (pos 18 vs 9, 9 places gap)
-0.07
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.04
Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.1 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Puebla: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 2
    Puebla: 91% of xG value comes in the first half (last 7 games with xG data)

  • 3
    Puebla: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes

  • 4
    Pachuca: 69% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 5
    Puebla: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

54%

Draw

29%

Away Win

17%

Goals

Over 1.5

67%

Under 1.5

33%

Over 2.5

39%

Under 2.5

61%

Over 3.5

19%

Under 3.5

81%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

83%

Away or Draw

46%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

42%

No

58%

Key Factors
  • Historical dominance: Pachuca won 3 of the last 4 direct matches against Puebla
  • Away weakness: Puebla concedes an average of 2.57 goals per away match
  • Model forecast: The mathematical analysis calculates a 54% probability for a home win
Risk Factors
  • Struggling offense for Pachuca with recently only 1.0 goals compared to their season average of 1.4
  • Low goal threat for Pachuca with recently only 3.0 shots on target averaged per match
  • Missing creativity due to the absence of Christian Rivera with only 73% of seasonal assists available
Overview

Pachuca host Puebla at the Estadio Hidalgo

Liga MX match on August 18, 2026, 4:06 AM

Puebla occupies 12th place with 4 points

Pachuca sits close behind in 13th place with 3 points

Form

Pachuca's form is WLWLL

They have 2 wins and 3 losses in their recent matches

Puebla's form is LLWLD

They have 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in their recent matches

Statistics

Pachuca scores an average of 1.35 goals per game

Their defense concedes an average of 1.1 goals per game

Puebla struggles away from home conceding an average of 2.57 goals per game

Puebla scores an average of 1.0 goals per game

Head-to-Head

Pachuca dominates the history with 3 wins and 1 draw in 4 head-to-head matches

Puebla has not won any of these direct duels

The last match ended in a 2-1 home victory for Pachuca

Key Players

Oussama Idrissi recorded 6 goals and 3 assists this season

Salomón Rondón has contributed 5 goals this season

Emiliano Gómez leads the visitors with 8 goals and 5 assists

Goalkeepers

Carlos Agustín Moreno Luna kept 10 clean sheets for Pachuca

Daniel Gutiérrez represented Puebla in 17 games in goal

Influences

Pachuca benefits from home advantage conceding only 0.90 goals per home game

The match will be played on natural grass at the Estadio Hidalgo

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