🇲🇽

Liga MX

América - Atlético San Luis

08/16/2026, 11:00 PM

3 : 0
Expected Goals
América
1.6
Total xG
2.4
Atlético San Luis
0.8
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

1:0

13%

2:0

11%

0:0

11%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
AMÉASL

América

Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.30
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.15
Rising form (2.2 vs 1.7 season average)
+0.15
Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 15, 11 places gap)
+0.08
Isaías Violante on the bench (2 goals, 4 assists)
Cristián Borja on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists)
Érick Sánchez on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists)
Kevin Álvarez on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
63% of goal output missing (only 28% available)

Atlético San Luis

Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 4, 11 places gap)
-0.10
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.02
Leonardo Flores on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
50% of goal output missing (only 69% available)

League

High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match)
+0.34
+0.34
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Atlético San Luis: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games

  • 2
    Atlético San Luis: 75% of xG value comes in the second half (last 7 games with xG data)

  • 3
    América: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

  • 4
    Atlético San Luis with Robson Bambu: 1.6 goals/game. Without: 0.7 goals/game (5 of 8 games)

  • 5
    Atlético San Luis: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

54%

Draw

28%

Away Win

18%

Goals

Over 1.5

71%

Under 1.5

29%

Over 2.5

43%

Under 2.5

57%

Over 3.5

22%

Under 3.5

78%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

82%

Away or Draw

46%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

46%

No

54%

Key Factors
  • Drastic drop in quality for América: Only 28% of the usual starting lineup's goal threat is available, with key players Isaías Violante, Cristián Borja, Érick Sánchez, and Kevin Álvarez not in the lineup
  • Tactical dominance: América recently averaged 6.4 shots on target and 59.8% ball possession
  • Statistical advantage: The mathematical model calculates a 54% probability for a home win and expects 1.58 goals for América
Risk Factors
  • Opponent absence: Atlético San Luis will play without Leonardo Flores, leaving them with only 70% of their goal threat
  • Historical warning: América lost the last head-to-head match at home 2-0 on January 15, 2026
  • Goalkeeper setback for América: First-choice keeper L. Malagón Velázquez is sidelined with an injury
Overview

América host Atlético San Luis at the Estadio Banorte

Liga MX match on August 16, 2026, 11:00 PM

América are currently in 3rd place with 7 points

Atlético San Luis occupy 15th place with 2 points

The home team is the favorite for this encounter

Form

América are in stable form with a DDWDW record (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

They won their last match 3-0 against Santos Laguna

Atlético San Luis show a form of WLLDD

The visitors drew their last match 0-0 against Tijuana

Statistics

América score an average of 1.61 goals and concede 1.16 goals per game this season

At home, América concede only 0.95 goals on average

Atlético San Luis score an average of 1.44 goals and concede 1.65 goals

Away from home, San Luis concede an average of 1.67 goals

Head-to-Head

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, both teams have recorded 2 wins each

The last meeting on January 15, 2026, ended in a 2-0 away win for Atlético San Luis

There have been no draws recorded between these teams

Key Players

Henry Martin has recently recorded 2 goals and 1 assist in his last 5 games

Raphael Veiga holds a season average rating of 7.06

Sébastien Salles-Lamonge excels with a season average rating of 7.21

Goalkeepers

Fernando Tapia starts in goal for América, having made no appearances this season

Andrés Sánchez starts in goal for the visitors with a season rating of 6.8

Influences

The match is played at the Estadio Banorte on grass

Venue statistics show an average of 3.0 goals per match

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.