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Liga MX

Necaxa - León

08/18/2026, 01:00 AM

1 : 2
Expected Goals
Necaxa
1.5
Total xG
2.4
León
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:0

11%

0:0

10%

2:0

9%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
NECLEÓ

Necaxa

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.05
Agustín Oliveros not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists)
Julián Carranza not in squad (3 goals, 0 assists)
23% of goal output missing (only 76% available)

León

Attack weakness (0.72x league average)
-0.51
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
+0.04
Ismael Díaz not in squad (10 goals, 6 assists)
Salvador Reyes on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
13% of goal output missing (only 81% available)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Necaxa: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)

  • 2
    Necaxa: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes

  • 3
    Necaxa: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 4
    León: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 5
    León: 66% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

47%

Draw

30%

Away Win

23%

Goals

Over 1.5

72%

Under 1.5

28%

Over 2.5

44%

Under 2.5

56%

Over 3.5

23%

Under 3.5

77%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

77%

Away or Draw

53%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

49%

No

51%

Key Factors
  • Matchup advantage: Necaxa's home strength meets León's defensive away weakness of 4.11 goals conceded per match on average
  • Offensive drive: León averaged 5.4 shots on target per match in recent games
  • Model prediction: The mathematical model calculates a 47% home win probability for Necaxa
Risk Factors
  • Away weakness: León concedes an extremely high average of 4.11 goals per away game
  • Recent upswing: León won their last match 1-0, breaking their previous losing streak
  • Limited data on duel statistics for the last five matches
Overview

Necaxa hosts León at the Estadio Victoria de Aguascalientes

Liga MX match on August 18, 2026, 3:00 AM

Necaxa is in 10th place with 6 points while León sits in 14th place with 3 points

Form

Necaxa has a form of DLWWL and lost their last match 1-3 against Toluca

León secured a 1-0 win against Pachuca after previously losing four games in a row (form: LLLLW)

Statistics

Necaxa scored 1.26 goals and conceded 1.68 goals on average this season

León scores 1.06 goals on average but concedes a disastrous 4.11 goals per away match

Both teams scored in 4 of Necaxa's 5 home matches with an average of 2.2 goals per game

Head-to-Head

In 4 head-to-head matches Necaxa won 1, León won 2 and 1 ended in a draw

The last meeting ended 2-1 for León on March 1, 2026

Key Players

For Necaxa Ricardo Monreal (4 goals, 2 assists in 32 matches), midfielder Javier Ruiz (5 goals, 1 assist in 12 matches) and Danny Leyva (3 assists) are key

Not nominated for Necaxa: Agustín Oliveros (2 goals/1 assist), Julián Carranza (3 goals/0 assists)

León relies on scorer Díber Cambindo (8 goals, 2 assists in 17 matches), Fernando Beltrán (3 goals, 2 assists in 31 matches) and Daniel Arcila (4 goals)

Not nominated for León: Ismael Díaz (10 goals/6 assists), Salvador Reyes (0 goals/2 assists)

Goalkeepers

Luis Jiménez plays in goal for Necaxa with 0 clean sheets this season but showed rising form recently

Óscar García guards the goal for León and recorded 6 clean sheets so far

Influences

Necaxa benefits from home advantage at Estadio Victoria de Aguascalientes conceding only 1.00 goals per home game

León shows extreme away weakness conceding an average of 4.11 goals on the road on grass

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