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Liga MX

Pumas UNAM - Querétaro

08/16/2026, 06:00 PM

0 : 0
Expected Goals
Pumas UNAM
1.1
Total xG
2.1
Querétaro
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

14%

1:0

11%

0:1

11%

2:1

7%
What influences the xG?
PUQUE

Pumas UNAM

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.05
Álvaro Angulo on the bench (6 goals, 2 assists)
17% of goal output missing (only 92% available)

Querétaro

Attack weakness (0.65x league average)
-0.52
Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+0.16
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.12
Rising form (1.6 vs 1.2 season average)
+0.12
Mateo Coronel not in squad (5 goals, 0 assists)
21% of goal output missing (only 78% available)
Weak away record (0.7 vs 1.2 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.43
+0.43
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Querétaro: 4 wins in 4 games with xG above 1.0 (100% win rate)

  • 2
    Pumas UNAM: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 3
    Pumas UNAM with Pablo Bennevendo Peña: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 2.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Querétaro with Juan Pablo Cázares Torres: 1 goals/game. Without: 2.7 goals/game (5 of 8 games)

  • 5
    Querétaro: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

35%

Draw

33%

Away Win

32%

Goals

Over 1.5

65%

Under 1.5

35%

Over 2.5

36%

Under 2.5

64%

Over 3.5

17%

Under 3.5

83%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

68%

Away or Draw

65%

No Draw

67%

Both Score

Yes

45%

No

55%

Key Factors
  • Home attack vs away defense: Pumas UNAM score 1.67 goals on average at home, while Querétaro concede an average of 2.5 goals on the road
  • Visitor squad limitation: Querétaro are missing Mateo Coronel, leaving only 79% of their usual goal threat available
  • Shooting efficiency metrics: Querétaro averaged 4.0 shots on target in recent matches, compared to Pumas UNAM's average of 2.6
Risk Factors
  • Balanced mathematical forecast: The model calculates a highly tight match with a 35% home win and 32% away win probability
  • Home offensive vacancy: Álvaro Angulo is absent from Pumas UNAM's starting lineup
  • Away defensive leakage: Querétaro concede a high average of 2.5 goals per away game this season
Overview

Pumas UNAM host Querétaro

Liga MX match at the Estadio Olímpico de Universitario on August 16, 2026, 8:00 PM

Both teams are currently tied with 6 points each, occupying 6th and 8th place in the standings

A victory is crucial for both to stay connected with the top group

Form

Pumas UNAM show a form sequence of DLLWW with two consecutive wins

Querétaro enter the match with a DWLWW form, also coming off back-to-back victories

Both sides head into this match on a positive form trend

Statistics

Pumas UNAM score an average of 1.63 goals per match while conceding 1.32

Querétaro average 1.06 goals scored but suffer defensively on the road, conceding a high average of 2.5 goals per away game

Matches played at the Estadio Olímpico de Universitario have averaged 3.8 total goals this season

Head-to-Head

Across 4 recent head-to-head matches, Pumas UNAM recorded 2 wins, Querétaro 1 win, and 1 draw

Their last encounter on January 11, 2026, ended in a 1-1 draw

Pumas UNAM scored a total of 7 goals in these matches, while Querétaro found the net 4 times

Key Players

Robert Morales is a major threat for the hosts with 9 goals and 2 assists this season

Juninho has contributed 8 goals and 4 assists for Pumas UNAM

Alí Ávila leads the visitors' attack with an impressive 11 goals and 1 assist

Not nominated: Álvaro Angulo (6 goals, 2 assists) and Mateo Coronel (5 goals, 0 assists)

Goalkeepers

Keylor Navas guards the goal for Pumas UNAM with a season rating of 7.04

Guillermo Allison is in goal for Querétaro, averaging a rating of 6.95

Navas secured 12 clean sheets this season, while Allison recorded 8 clean sheets

Influences

Pumas UNAM benefit from home advantage, scoring an average of 1.67 goals on home turf

Querétaro struggle significantly away from home, conceding an average of 2.5 goals on their travels

The match will be played on natural grass at the Estadio Olímpico de Universitario

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