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Liga MX

Atlante - Toluca

08/15/2026, 11:00 PM

0 : 0
Expected Goals
Atlante
1.0
Total xG
2.8
Toluca
1.8
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

1:2

10%

0:2

10%

1:3

6%

0:3

6%
What influences the xG?
ATLTOL

Atlante

Defensive weakness (1.7 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+0.30
Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
-0.14

Toluca

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.27
Declining form (1.2 vs 2.1 season average)
-0.27
Alexis Vega on the bench (4 goals, 12 assists)
Santiago SimĂłn not in squad (0 goals, 3 assists)
25% of goal output missing (only 55% available)
Weak away record (1.4 vs 2.1 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.39
+0.39
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Toluca with Alexis Vega: 2.3 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Toluca: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

20%

Draw

26%

Away Win

54%

Goals

Over 1.5

79%

Under 1.5

21%

Over 2.5

54%

Under 2.5

46%

Over 3.5

32%

Under 3.5

68%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

46%

Away or Draw

80%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

55%

No

45%

Key Factors
  • Mathematical advantage: The model predicts a 54% win probability for the favored 3rd-placed Toluca
  • Tactical dominance: Toluca controlled recent matches with an average of 67% possession and averaged 5.4 shots on target
  • Defensive contrast: Toluca kept 13 clean sheets this season, whereas Atlante concede 1.67 goals on average and have kept zero clean sheets
Risk Factors
  • Weakened away attack: Alexis Vega and Santiago SimĂłn are missing from the squad, leaving Toluca with only 55% of their usual goal threat
  • Limited data availability for home team player statistics and head-to-head history
Overview

Atlante host Toluca at Estadio Banorte

Liga MX match on August 15, 2026, 11:00 PM

10th-placed Atlante with 4 points face 3rd-placed Toluca with 6 points

Crucial points are at stake for both teams to improve their league standings

Form

Atlante's recent form is LDW, winning their last match

Toluca's recent form is LLWLW, also coming off a victory

Atlante recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their matches

Toluca recorded 2 wins and 3 losses in their last 5 games

Explanation: W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Atlante score an average of 1.67 goals and concede 1.67 goals per game

Both teams scored in all 3 of Atlante's league matches this season

Toluca average 1.88 goals scored and 1.31 goals conceded in away games

The away side kept 13 clean sheets throughout the season

Key Players

Jhojan Julio recorded 1 goal and 2 assists at Estadio Banorte

Luis Fernando Puente Prado scored 1 goal at the venue with an average rating of 7.24

JesĂșs Angulo scored 7 goals and provided 5 assists in 37 appearances for Toluca

Goalkeepers

Óscar JimĂ©nez is in goal for Atlante, averaging a rating of 7.94 at this venue

Luis GarcĂ­a is Toluca's goalkeeper with 20 appearances and a season rating of 6.96

Atlante have kept 0 clean sheets this season, compared to Toluca's 13 clean sheets

Influences

Estadio Banorte averages 3.4 total goals per game

The stadium features a 60% rate for both teams to score and over 2.5 goals

The match will be played on a grass surface

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