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Liga MX

Atlas - Tigres UANL

08/16/2026, 03:10 AM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Atlas
0.9
Total xG
2.4
Tigres UANL
1.5
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

0:1

12%

0:0

11%

0:2

10%

1:2

9%
What influences the xG?
ATLTU

Atlas

Attack weakness (0.79x league average)
-0.32
Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 2, 12 places gap)
-0.13
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.03
Aldo Rocha not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)
Sergio Hernandez on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
13% of goal output missing (only 70% available)

Tigres UANL

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.12
Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 14, 12 places gap)
+0.08
Ozziel Herrera on the bench (7 goals, 4 assists)
Vladimir Loroña on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
17% of goal output missing (only 84% available)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Tigres UANL with Juan Vigón: 2.2 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Atlas: 77% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 3
    Atlas with Jorge Rodríguez: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Atlas: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

  • 5
    Tigres UANL: 67% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

23%

Draw

30%

Away Win

48%

Goals

Over 1.5

71%

Under 1.5

29%

Over 2.5

43%

Under 2.5

57%

Over 3.5

22%

Under 3.5

78%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

52%

Away or Draw

77%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

49%

No

51%

Key Factors
  • Tigres UANL averaged 4.6 shots on target with 50.4% possession in recent matches
  • The mathematical analysis forecasts a 48% probability of an away win for Tigres UANL
  • Historical dominance: Tigres UANL remain unbeaten in their last 4 head-to-head matches against Atlas, winning 2
Risk Factors
  • Atlas must cope without Aldo Rocha and Sergio Hernandez, leaving them with only 71% of their typical starting strength
  • Tigres UANL are missing Ozziel Herrera and Vladimir Loroña, reducing their active squad strength to 84%
  • Negative form trend: Tigres UANL's goal production has stalled recently at 1.6 goals compared to their season average of 2.0
Overview

Atlas (9th place, 6 points) host Tigres UANL (16th place, 1 point) at the Estadio Jalisco

Liga MX match on August 16, 2026, 5:10 AM

Atlas look to consolidate their table position, while Tigres aim to correct their poor start

Form

Form Atlas: LLWWL, Form Tigres UANL: WLLDL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Atlas recently recorded 2 wins and 3 losses

Tigres have 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses

Statistics

Atlas score an average of 1.17 goals per game this season and concede 1.58 goals

In home games, Atlas concede only 1.09 goals per match

Tigres UANL boast a strong scoring average of 1.79 goals but concede 1.87 goals per away game on average

This season, both teams scored in 24 of Tigres' 42 matches

Head-to-Head

There have been 4 head-to-head matches

Tigres UANL secured 2 wins, with 2 draws and 0 wins for Atlas

The goal difference is 5:2 in favor of Tigres UANL

The last encounter ended in a 0:0 draw on April 23, 2026

Key Players

Arturo González scored 7 times in 30 appearances this season with a rating of 6.88

Manuel Capasso stabilizes the defense with a rating of 7.19 in 19 games

Édgar Zaldívar has registered 1 goal in his last 5 matches

For the visitors, Juan Brunetta shines with 19 goals and 9 assists in 42 games (rating 7.55)

Diego Sánchez scored 4 goals in 17 season appearances

Diego Lainez contributed 6 goals and 7 assists

Goalkeepers

Camilo Vargas played 33 season matches for Atlas, recording 7 clean sheets in home games

On the other side, Nahuel Guzmán has 42 appearances and 4 clean sheets in away matches for Tigres UANL

Influences

The home advantage for Atlas is reflected in an average of 1.17 home goals scored and 1.09 conceded at the Estadio Jalisco

The stadium statistics show an average of 2.0 goals per game, with both teams scoring in 40% of the matches

The match will be played on natural grass

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