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Liga MX

Santos Laguna - Guadalajara

08/17/2026, 01:10 AM

0 : 1
Expected Goals
Santos Laguna
1.1
Total xG
2.3
Guadalajara
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

11%

0:1

10%

1:0

9%

1:2

8%
What influences the xG?
SLGUA

Santos Laguna

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.06
Lucas Di Yorio not in squad (6 goals, 3 assists)
Ramiro Sordo on the bench (2 goals, 4 assists)
30% of goal output missing (only 63% available)

Guadalajara

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.26
Declining form (1 vs 1.8 season average)
-0.26
Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.06
Bryan Alonso GonzĂĄlez OlivĂĄn on the bench (6 goals, 5 assists)
Daniel Aguirre DomĂ­nguez on the bench (4 goals, 3 assists)
Ángel SepĂșlveda on the bench (4 goals, 1 assists)
50% of goal output missing (only 61% available)
Weak away record (1.4 vs 1.8 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match)
+0.34
+0.34
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Guadalajara with José Castillo Pérez: 1.3 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Santos Laguna with Diego Medina: 1.4 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (5 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Guadalajara: 70% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 4
    Guadalajara: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

31%

Draw

31%

Away Win

38%

Goals

Over 1.5

69%

Under 1.5

31%

Over 2.5

41%

Under 2.5

59%

Over 3.5

21%

Under 3.5

79%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

62%

Away or Draw

69%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

49%

No

51%

Key Factors
  • Tactical dominance: Guadalajara controlled recent matches with 59% average possession and averaged 6.4 shots on target
  • Historical superiority: Guadalajara won 3 of the last 4 head-to-head matches with an overall goal difference of 6-1
  • Mathematical favorite: The model favors the visitors with a 38% win probability and 1.24 expected goals
Risk Factors
  • Weakened attack for Santos Laguna: Lucas Di Yorio and Ramiro Sordo are missing, leaving only 64% of the goal threat available
  • Squad limitations for Guadalajara: Bryan Alonso GonzĂĄlez OlivĂĄn, Daniel Aguirre DomĂ­nguez, and Ángel SepĂșlveda are missing, reducing goal threat to 61%
  • Sluggish offenses: According to advanced stats, both teams currently score fewer goals, averaging just 1.0 goals per match recently
Overview

Santos Laguna (17th place, 0 points) host Guadalajara (12th place, 4 points) at Estadio Nuevo Corona

Liga MX match on August 17, 2026, 1:10 AM

The hosts are under pressure after three defeats while the visitors aim to climb the table

Form

Santos Laguna in poor form: LWLLL with 1 win, 0 draws, and 4 losses (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

The home side suffered three consecutive defeats recently

Guadalajara show mixed form: DLLWD with 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses

Their last match ended in a draw

Statistics

Santos Laguna score an average of 1.24 goals and concede 1.94 goals per game

At home, their defense is tighter, conceding 1.1 goals on average

Guadalajara score 1.75 goals on average while conceding 1.23 per match

Away from home, the visitors concede an average of 1.88 goals

Head-to-Head

Historical record from 4 head-to-head matches favors the visitors

Guadalajara record 3 wins while Santos Laguna won once, with total goals of 6-1 in favor of Guadalajara

The last direct encounter ended in a 3-0 victory for Guadalajara

Key Players

Ezequiel Bullaude stands out in midfield with 5 goals and 4 assists, holding a 7.02 rating

Aldo LĂłpez scored 4 goals this season with a 6.83 average rating

Fran Villalba contributed 3 goals and 2 assists

Roberto Alvarado shines for the visitors with 4 goals, 5 assists, and a 7.26 rating

Richard Ledezma is a key creator with 8 assists in defense

Ricardo MarĂ­n has recorded 3 goals so far this season

Goalkeepers

Carlos Acevedo kept 6 clean sheets this season with a 6.93 average rating

RaĂșl Rangel on the opposite side has registered 14 clean sheets with a 6.9 rating

Influences

Home advantage for Santos Laguna on the grass surface of Estadio Nuevo Corona

Venue statistics average 2.0 total goals per match

Both teams scored at this venue in 40% of the fixtures

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