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Liga MX

Cruz Azul - Atlas

08/23/2026, 03:00 AM

0 : 2
Expected Goals
Cruz Azul
1.6
Total xG
2.3
Atlas
0.8
Most Likely Scores

1:0

14%

1:1

13%

2:0

12%

0:0

11%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
CAATL

Cruz Azul

Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.24
Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 14, 11 places gap)
+0.08
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.03
Carlos Rotondi not in squad (6 goals, 7 assists)
Luka Romero on the bench (3 goals, 2 assists)
Gonzalo Piovi not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)

Atlas

Attack weakness (0.66x league average)
-0.68
Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 3, 11 places gap)
-0.09
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.04
Gustavo Henrique Ferrareis on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists)
Aldo Rocha not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)
Sergio Hernandez on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.3 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match)
+0.33
+0.33
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Atlas: 79% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 2
    Cruz Azul: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 3
    Atlas with Jorge RodrĂ­guez: 1.3 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Cruz Azul: 72% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 5
    Cruz Azul: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

55%

Draw

28%

Away Win

17%

Goals

Over 1.5

69%

Under 1.5

31%

Over 2.5

41%

Under 2.5

59%

Over 3.5

21%

Under 3.5

79%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

83%

Away or Draw

45%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

44%

No

56%

Key Factors
  • Home strength vs away struggles: Cruz Azul score an average of 1.75 goals at home, while Atlas concede 2.46 goals away on average
  • Tactical dominance: Cruz Azul recently dominated with an average of 59% possession and created 7.2 shots on target per match
  • Model prediction: The mathematical analysis calculates a 55% probability of a home win
Risk Factors
  • Squad impact: Due to missing players, Atlas only have 83% of their usual goal-scoring threat available
  • Away defensive instability: Atlas allow a high average of 2.46 goals conceded per away match
Overview

Cruz Azul host Atlas at the Estadio Banorte

Liga MX match on August 23, 2026, 5:00 AM

Eleventh place faces sixth place in the standings

The home side aims to close the gap in the table with a victory

Form

Cruz Azul form: WWWLL

Atlas form is: LWWLW

Both teams recently secured 3 wins and suffered 2 defeats

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Cruz Azul average 1.77 goals scored per game this season

Atlas concede an average of 2.46 goals per away match

In home matches, Cruz Azul average 1.75 goals scored

Head-to-Head

There have been 5 head-to-head matches so far

Cruz Azul achieved 3 victories and remained unbeaten at home

The last direct encounter ended 1-0 in favor of Cruz Azul

Key Players

José Paradela stands out with 10 goals and 10 assists this season

Carlos RodrĂ­guez has contributed 8 goals and 6 assists so far

Arturo GonzĂĄlez is a key attacker for the visitors with 7 goals this season

Goalkeepers

Kevin Mier plays in goal for Cruz Azul and has kept 8 home clean sheets

Camilo Vargas guards the Atlas goal and has recorded 10 clean sheets

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at the Estadio Banorte

The historical home record indicates an advantage for Cruz Azul

The stadium averages 2.6 goals per game

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