🇲🇽

Liga MX

Atlético San Luis - Pachuca

08/23/2026, 11:00 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Atlético San Luis
0.9
Total xG
2.1
Pachuca
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

14%

0:1

13%

1:0

9%

0:2

9%
What influences the xG?
ASLPAC

Atlético San Luis

Attack weakness (0.6x league average)
-0.80
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.13
Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 9, 6 places gap)
-0.06
Leonardo Flores on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
35% of goal output missing (only 80% available)

Pachuca

Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.21
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.07
Standings advantage (pos 9 vs 15, 6 places gap)
+0.04

League

High-scoring league (3 goals/match)
+0.46
+0.46
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Atlético San Luis with Anderson Duarte: 1.3 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Atlético San Luis: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

  • 3
    Pachuca: 67% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 4
    Atlético San Luis: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 5
    Atlético San Luis: 69% of xG value comes in the second half (last 7 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

27%

Draw

33%

Away Win

40%

Goals

Over 1.5

64%

Under 1.5

36%

Over 2.5

35%

Under 2.5

65%

Over 3.5

16%

Under 3.5

84%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

60%

Away or Draw

73%

No Draw

67%

Both Score

Yes

44%

No

56%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical model predicts a slight advantage for Pachuca with a 40% away win probability and 1.19 expected goals
  • In recent matches, Atlético San Luis averaged 3.6 shots on target, whereas Pachuca averaged only 2.8 shots
  • Both offenses have slowed down recently, with Atlético San Luis (1.3 goals) and Pachuca (1.2 goals) failing to match their seasonal averages of 1.4 goals
Risk Factors
  • Pachuca averaged only 2.8 shots on target per game in their recent matches
  • Atlético San Luis are still without a win this season (0 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses)
  • Pachuca travel with a streak of three consecutive defeats
Overview

Atlético San Luis host Pachuca at Estadio Alfonso Lastras Ramírez

Liga MX match on August 23, 2026, 11:00 PM

A clash of table neighbors in the lower standings

Pachuca are 15th with 3 points, Atlético San Luis 16th with 2 points

Form

Atlético San Luis show a form of LLDDL with 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 defeats

They recently lost 0-3 against América

Pachuca travel with a form of LWLLL (1 win, 0 draws, 4 defeats)

The visitors recently lost 2-3 against Puebla

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Atlético San Luis average 1.44 goals scored and 1.65 conceded this season

At home, they average 1.44 goals scored and 1.62 conceded

Pachuca average 1.35 goals scored and 1.10 goals conceded

Away from home, Pachuca concede an average of 1.32 goals and score 1.32

The goal average at this venue stands at 2.4 goals per game

Head-to-Head

In 4 head-to-head matches, there is 1 home win, 2 away wins, and 1 draw

The goal difference stands at 4-6 from San Luis's perspective

The last duel on March 14, 2026, ended in a 1-1 draw

Pachuca have been the dominant team in recent meetings

Key Players

Sébastien Salles-Lamonge scored 5 goals and 6 assists in 34 games (7.21 rating)

David Rodríguez has 1 goal in 7 games with a 7.01 rating

Román Torres contributed 1 goal and 2 assists in 33 games

Salomón Rondón scored 5 goals in 20 games, with all 5 coming in his last 5 matches

Oussama Idrissi recorded 6 goals and 3 assists in 34 games

Elías Montiel registered 2 goals and 5 assists in 20 appearances

Not nominated: Leonardo Flores (1 goal / 1 assist)

Goalkeepers

Andrés Sánchez guarded the goal in 32 matches for the hosts

Carlos Agustín Moreno Luna played 39 games for Pachuca

San Luis kept 7 clean sheets this season, while Pachuca recorded 10

Influences

The home advantage is built on 23 goals scored and 26 conceded at home

Estadio Alfonso Lastras Ramírez averaged 2.4 goals per game in recent matches

The match will be played on natural grass

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.