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Liga MX

Pumas UNAM - Necaxa

08/24/2026, 01:00 AM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Pumas UNAM
1.2
Total xG
2.3
Necaxa
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

11%

1:0

10%

0:1

9%

2:1

8%
What influences the xG?
PUNEC

Pumas UNAM

Attack weakness (0.73x league average)
-0.41
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.05
Álvaro Angulo not in squad (6 goals, 2 assists)
12% of goal output missing (only 95% available)

Necaxa

Attack weakness (0.72x league average)
-0.42
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.01
Javier Ruiz on the bench (5 goals, 1 assists)
Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.4 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3 goals/match)
+0.46
+0.46
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Necaxa: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (5 of 8 total)

  • 2
    Necaxa: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 3
    Necaxa: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes

  • 4
    Pumas UNAM: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 5
    Necaxa: 74% of xG value comes in the second half (last 7 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

38%

Draw

31%

Away Win

31%

Goals

Over 1.5

70%

Under 1.5

30%

Over 2.5

42%

Under 2.5

58%

Over 3.5

21%

Under 3.5

79%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

69%

Away or Draw

62%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

49%

No

51%

Key Factors
  • Necaxa missing Javier Ruiz (5 goals, 1 assist) leaving them with only 86% of usual lineup strength
  • Pumas UNAM averaged 3.2 shots on target in recent matches compared to Necaxa's average of 5.4
  • Pumas UNAM is currently scoring more frequently with 2.0 goals per game compared to their season average of 1.8
Risk Factors
  • Necaxa concedes an extremely vulnerable average of 2.35 goals in away matches
  • Pumas UNAM must do without Álvaro Angulo who is missing with 6 goals and 2 assists
Overview

Pumas UNAM host Necaxa at the Estadio OlĂ­mpico de Universitario

Liga MX fixture on August 24, 2026, 3:00 AM

Pumas UNAM are in 9th place with 7 points, while Necaxa occupy 11th with 6 points

The model calculates a 38% probability for a home win

Form

Pumas UNAM hold a form of LLWWD with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses

Necaxa show a form of LWWLL with 2 wins and 3 losses

Pumas UNAM recently drew 0-0 against Querétaro, while Necaxa lost 1-2 to León

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Pumas UNAM score an average of 1.63 goals and concede 1.32 goals per match

At home, Pumas score consistently with an average of 1.67 goals

Necaxa score an average of 1.26 goals but concede 2.35 goals per away game

Over 2.5 goals occurred in 60% of the games at this venue

Head-to-Head

There have been 4 head-to-head matches between these teams

Pumas UNAM won 2 matches, Necaxa won 1, with 1 draw

The goal difference in these direct encounters is even at 4 to 4

The last match on March 7, 2026, ended in a 1-0 win for Pumas UNAM

Key Players

Robert Morales leads the attack with 9 goals and 2 assists this season

Juninho has contributed 8 goals and 4 assists so far

Pedro Vite commands the midfield with 3 goals and 1 assist

Goalkeepers

Keylor Navas guards the goal for Pumas and has kept 12 clean sheets

Luis Jiménez played in goal in 3 of the last 5 matches for Necaxa

Influences

The match will be played on grass at the Estadio OlĂ­mpico de Universitario

Recent home games at this venue averaged 2.6 goals per match

Pumas' home advantage is supported by conceding only 1.14 goals per home game compared to 1.5 away

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