Liga MX
Querétaro - Toluca
08/22/2026, 03:10 AM
Expected Goals
1.0
2.4
1.4
1:1
14%0:1
11%0:0
11%1:2
9%0:2
9%What influences the xG?
Querétaro
Toluca
League
The Lab
- 1Toluca: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)
- 2Toluca with Alexis Vega: 2.6 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (5 of 8 games)
- 3Querétaro: 4 wins in 4 games with xG above 1.0 (100% win rate)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
25%
Draw
30%
Away Win
45%
Goals
Over 1.5
71%
Under 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
44%
Under 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
23%
Under 3.5
77%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
55%
Away or Draw
75%
No Draw
70%
Both Score
Yes
50%
No
50%
Key Factors
- Form trend: Querétaro shows a positive trend, scoring more recently (1.8 goals) than their season average of 1.2
- Tactical contrast: Querétaro has played counter-oriented with an average of 42% possession in recent matches, while Toluca dominated with an average of 64% possession
- Model prediction: The mathematical model calculates a 45% probability for an away win, with expected goals of 1.42 for Toluca
Risk Factors
- Struggling attack: Toluca's goal production is currently stalling at an average of 1.5 goals compared to their season average of 2.1
- Missing goal threat: Querétaro has to cope without the unlisted Mateo Coronel (5 goals)
- Limited data on duel statistics
Overview
Querétaro hosts Toluca at Estadio La Corregidora
Liga MX match on August 22, 2026, 3:10 AM
Toluca sits 5th with 7 points, while Querétaro is right behind in 8th place with 7 points
A tight mid-table clash with both teams aiming to climb
Form
Querétaro shows solid form (WLWWD, W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Their last result was a 0-0 draw against Pumas UNAM
Toluca approaches the match with a LWLWD form
The visitors recently recorded a scoreless draw away at Atlante
Statistics
Querétaro averages 1.06 goals scored and 1.47 goals conceded per game this season
At home, they concede only 0.91 goals per match on average
Toluca shines offensively with 1.86 goals scored per game this season
On the road, the visitors average 1.88 goals scored and 1.31 goals conceded
Head-to-Head
Toluca dominates the historical matchup with 3 wins in 4 meetings
Querétaro has managed only 1 victory so far
The goal difference stands at 10-1 in favor of Toluca
However, the last encounter ended in a 1-0 home victory for Querétaro
Key Players
Forward Alí Ávila is the main threat for Querétaro with 11 goals this season
Defender Santiago Homenchenko has contributed 6 goals with a season rating of 7.09
Carlo Adriano García Prades anchors the midfield with an average rating of 6.70
Not in the home lineup: Mateo Coronel (5 goals)
Alexis Vega orchestrates Toluca's attack with 4 goals and 12 assists
Helinho is highly dangerous with 9 goals and 6 assists this season
Defender Federico Pereira impresses with a strong average rating of 6.98
Not in the away lineup: Jorge Díaz (2 goals, 3 assists) and Santiago Simón (3 assists)
Goalkeepers
Guillermo Allison starts in goal for the hosts, holding a solid season average rating of 6.95
Querétaro has recorded 8 clean sheets overall this season
Hugo González guards the goal for Toluca with a season rating of 6.81
The visitors have registered 13 clean sheets in this campaign
Influences
The match takes place at Estadio La Corregidora on a natural grass pitch
Stadium history shows a high-scoring trend with an average of 3.0 goals per game
Both teams scored in 80% of matches here, while 60% featured over 2.5 goals
Home advantage is supported by a stable defense, conceding only 0.91 goals per home game