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Liga MX

Juárez - América

08/22/2026, 03:10 AM

1 : 2
Expected Goals
Juárez
1.0
Total xG
2.5
América
1.5
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:2

9%

0:2

9%

2:1

6%

2:2

5%
What influences the xG?
JUÁAMÉ

Juárez

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.19
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.4 season average)
-0.19
Guilherme Castilho on the bench (7 goals, 2 assists)
Alejandro Mayorga on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists)
Ricardinho on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)

América

Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.27
Attack strength (1.22x league average)
+0.16
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.14
Rising form (2.2 vs 1.7 season average)
+0.14
Cristián Borja on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists)
Ramón Juárez on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
Weak away record (1.2 vs 1.7 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.36
+0.36
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Juárez with Óscar Estupiñán: 0.7 goals/game. Without: 2 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Juárez: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 3
    Juárez: 62% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (5 of 8)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

24%

Draw

29%

Away Win

47%

Goals

Over 1.5

73%

Under 1.5

27%

Over 2.5

46%

Under 2.5

54%

Over 3.5

25%

Under 3.5

75%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

54%

Away or Draw

76%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

52%

No

49%

Key Factors
  • Form Gap: Bottom-placed Juárez lost all season matches so far, while América lead the standings with 10 points
  • Tactical Dominance: América averaged 6.4 shots on target per match recently, compared to Juárez's low average of 1.8
  • Model Backing: The predictive model estimates a clear 47% win probability for the favorites América
Risk Factors
  • H2H History: Juárez surprisingly won the last head-to-head encounter 2-1 back in March 2026
  • Key Absence for América: The injured attacker A. Zendejas Saavedra is unavailable, missing his contribution of 12 season goals
Overview

Juárez host América at the Estadio Olímpico Benito Juárez

Liga MX match on August 22, 2026, 5:00 AM

The bottom side in 18th place with 0 points face the unbeaten league leaders in 1st place with 10 points

Juárez are under massive pressure after four consecutive defeats

Form

Juárez are struggling with a form of WLLLL

The home side has suffered 4 defeats and secured 1 win in this sequence

América are in excellent shape with a form of DWDWW

The visitors remain unbeaten with 3 wins and 2 draws

(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Statistics

Juárez concede an average of 1.74 goals per game this season

Their home record shows 1.5 goals scored and 1.36 conceded on average

América score an average of 1.65 goals per away match

América's defense has kept 11 clean sheets throughout the season

Head-to-Head

There have been 4 head-to-head matches so far

América won 2 encounters, Juárez won 1, with 1 draw

The last meeting on March 5, 2026, ended in a 2-1 win for Juárez

The overall goal difference is 8:4 in favor of América

Key Players

Óscar Estupiñán has scored 15 goals for Juárez this season

José Luis Rodríguez contributed 4 goals and 9 assists

Jairo Torres recorded 4 goals and 2 assists

Brian Rodríguez leads América with 13 goals and 7 assists

Isaías Violante has registered 2 goals and 4 assists

Raphael Veiga added 2 goals and 2 assists

Goalkeepers

Sebastián Jurado kept 3 clean sheets this season

Rodolfo Cota shows rising form and contributed to América's 11 clean sheets

Influences

The match will be played on grass at the Estadio Olímpico Benito Juárez

Stadium stats show an average of 3.2 goals per game

Both teams scored in 80% of matches played at this venue

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