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Liga MX

Guadalajara - Tijuana

08/22/2026, 11:07 PM

5 : 2
Expected Goals
Guadalajara
1.9
Total xG
2.8
Tijuana
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

2:0

11%

2:1

10%

3:0

7%

3:1

6%
What influences the xG?
GUATIJ

Guadalajara

5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.31
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.8 season average)
-0.31
Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.18
Bryan Alonso GonzĂĄlez OlivĂĄn not in squad (6 goals, 5 assists)
Richard Ledezma on the bench (1 goals, 8 assists)
Daniel Aguirre DomĂ­nguez not in squad (4 goals, 3 assists)
Brian Gutiérrez on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)
26% of goal output missing (only 83% available)

Tijuana

Attack weakness (0.8x league average)
-0.62
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.14
Defensive weakness (1.3 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.02
Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.7 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match)
+0.33
+0.33
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Guadalajara: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)

  • 2
    Tijuana: first goal in 5 of 6 games (83%)

  • 3
    Guadalajara: 77% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 4
    Guadalajara with José Castillo Pérez: 1.3 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 5
    Tijuana: 42% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (5 of 12)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

59%

Draw

25%

Away Win

16%

Goals

Over 1.5

78%

Under 1.5

22%

Over 2.5

53%

Under 2.5

47%

Over 3.5

31%

Under 3.5

69%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

84%

Away or Draw

41%

No Draw

75%

Both Score

Yes

52%

No

48%

Key Factors
  • Tactical dominance: Guadalajara averaged 60.4% possession and 6.4 shots on target per match recently
  • Defensive advantage: Guadalajara concedes only 0.79 goals per home game, contrasting Tijuana's away difficulties
  • Model prediction: The mathematical analysis calculates a 59% probability for a home win
Risk Factors
  • Weakened squad: Guadalajara plays without Bryan Alonso GonzĂĄlez OlivĂĄn (6 goals, 5 assists) and Richard Ledezma (1 goal, 8 assists)
  • Away defensive issues: Tijuana concedes an average of 2.36 goals per away match this season
  • Low scoring venue: Estadio AKRON historically averages only 1.2 goals per match with 0% Over 2.5 rate
Overview

Guadalajara hosts Tijuana at the Estadio AKRON

Liga MX match on August 22, 2026, 11:07 PM

Tijuana is in 3rd place with 10 points, while Guadalajara is in 10th with 7 points

Form

Guadalajara has a form of LLWDW, coming off a 1-0 win against Santos Laguna

Guadalajara's recent goal production has slowed to 0.8 goals per match compared to their 1.8 season average

Tijuana is unbeaten in their last 5 games with a form of DWWDW

Tijuana is currently scoring more frequently with 2.0 goals compared to their 1.7 season average

Statistics

Guadalajara averages 1.75 goals scored and only 0.79 goals conceded at home

Tijuana scores 1.5 goals on the road but concedes a high average of 2.36 goals per away match

Tijuana has managed only 3 clean sheets in away games this season

Head-to-Head

Even historical record with 1 win each and 2 draws in 4 head-to-head matches

The last match on April 26, 2026, ended in a 0-0 draw

Total goals in direct duels stand at 7-8 in favor of Tijuana

Key Players

Roberto Alvarado has 4 goals and 5 assists with a rating of 7.26

Santiago Sandoval has recorded 6 goals and 1 assist this season

Ricardo MarĂ­n contributes with 3 goals and 2 assists

Goalkeepers

RaĂșl Rangel has 34 appearances, a 6.9 average rating, and 14 clean sheets

Antonio RodrĂ­guez has 37 appearances, a 7.2 average rating, and 13 clean sheets

Influences

Played on artificial turf where Guadalajara has a record of 7 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss

Tijuana has recorded 5 wins, 4 draws, and 1 loss on artificial turf

Estadio AKRON averages only 1.2 goals per match with a 0% BTTS rate in recent games

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