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Liga MX

Tigres UANL - Atlante

08/22/2026, 01:00 AM

2 : 0
Expected Goals
Tigres UANL
1.7
Total xG
2.7
Atlante
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

10%

2:0

9%

1:2

6%

3:1

5%
What influences the xG?
TUATL

Tigres UANL

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.23
Declining form (1.2 vs 2 season average)
-0.23
Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.15
Ozziel Herrera not in squad (7 goals, 4 assists)
Joaquim Henrique Pereira Silva on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)
17% of goal output missing (only 88% available)

Atlante

Attack weakness (0.74x league average)
-0.89
Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
+0.55
Defensive weakness (1.7 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+0.28

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.36
+0.36
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Tigres UANL with Rodrigo Aguirre: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 3.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Tigres UANL: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

51%

Draw

27%

Away Win

22%

Goals

Over 1.5

77%

Under 1.5

23%

Over 2.5

51%

Under 2.5

49%

Over 3.5

29%

Under 3.5

71%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

78%

Away or Draw

49%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

54%

No

46%

Key Factors
  • Lineup check: 88% of standard starting lineup strength - not nominated: Ozziel Herrera (7G/4A), Joaquim Henrique Pereira Silva (2G/1A)
  • Tigres UANL averaged 4.2 shots on target with 49.6% possession in recent matches
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with a probability of 51%
Risk Factors
  • Tigres UANL shows a negative form trend with a stalling goal production of 1.2 goals per game recently
  • The Tigres defense recently revealed weaknesses with an average of 2.4 goals conceded in recent games
  • Limited data availability for Atlante player statistics and head-to-head records
Overview

Tigres UANL hosts Atlante at the Estadio Universitario de Nuevo León

Liga MX match on August 22, 2026, 3:00 AM

Tigres is in 16th place with 1 point, while Atlante is in 13th place with 5 points

Form

Tigres UANL has a form of LLDLL with 0 wins, 1 draw, and 4 losses

Atlante shows a form of LDWD with 1 win, 2 draws, and 1 loss

Tigres recently lost 1-2 against Atlas, while Atlante drew 0-0 against Toluca

Statistics

Tigres scored an average of 1.79 goals and conceded 1.05 goals this season

Strong at home, Tigres averaged 1.78 goals scored and 0.59 goals conceded per home game

Atlante has a season average of 1.25 goals scored and 1.25 goals conceded

Tigres kept 10 clean sheets in 27 home games

Key Players

Juan Brunetta leads the Tigres attack with 19 goals and 9 assists

Diego Lainez contributed 6 goals and 7 assists this season

Diego Sánchez recorded 4 goals and 2 assists so far

Goalkeepers

Nahuel Guzmán is in goal for Tigres with a season average rating of 7.09

Óscar Jiménez guards the goal for Atlante

Tigres recorded 14 clean sheets this season, while Atlante has 1 clean sheet

Influences

The match is played on grass at the Estadio Universitario de Nuevo León

Stadium stats show an average of 3.8 goals per game

The rate for both teams to score at this venue is 80%

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