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Liga MX

Puebla - Santos Laguna

08/23/2026, 01:00 AM

3 : 2
Expected Goals
Puebla
1.1
Total xG
2.2
Santos Laguna
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

13%

1:0

11%

0:1

10%

2:1

8%
What influences the xG?
PUESL

Puebla

Attack weakness (0.62x league average)
-0.34
Standings disadvantage (pos 18 vs 11, 7 places gap)
-0.09
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.07
Emiliano GĂłmez on the bench (8 goals, 5 assists)
33% of goal output missing (only 78% available)

Santos Laguna

Defensive weakness (2 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+0.60
Attack weakness (0.68x league average)
-0.43
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.05
Standings advantage (pos 11 vs 18, 7 places gap)
+0.04
Lucas Di Yorio not in squad (6 goals, 3 assists)
Ramiro Sordo on the bench (2 goals, 4 assists)
21% of goal output missing (only 70% available)

League

High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match)
+0.33
+0.33
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Puebla: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 2
    Puebla: 84% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 3
    Santos Laguna with Diego Medina: 1.5 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (4 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Puebla with Carlos Baltazar: 1.4 goals/game. Without: 0.3 goals/game (5 of 8 games)

  • 5
    Puebla: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

35%

Draw

33%

Away Win

32%

Goals

Over 1.5

66%

Under 1.5

34%

Over 2.5

38%

Under 2.5

62%

Over 3.5

18%

Under 3.5

82%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

68%

Away or Draw

65%

No Draw

67%

Both Score

Yes

46%

No

54%

Key Factors
  • Inertia gap: Puebla is on a positive trend while Santos Laguna enters heavily shaken after 4 consecutive losses
  • Disastrous away defense: Santos Laguna concedes a worrying average of 3.14 goals per away match
  • Significant squad reduction: Key players Lucas Di Yorio (6 goals, 3 assists) and Ramiro Sordo (2 goals, 4 assists) are not in the lineup for Santos Laguna
Risk Factors
  • Home offensive deficit: Emiliano GĂłmez is missing for Puebla taking away 33% of their seasonal goals
  • Defensive vulnerability: Puebla concedes 2.00 goals per game on average while Santos Laguna concedes 1.94
  • Low expected goals in model: The mathematical prediction estimates only a 38% probability of over 2.5 goals
Overview

Puebla hosts Santos Laguna at the Estadio Cuauhtémoc

Liga MX match on August 23, 2026, 3:00 AM

A clash between 8th-placed Puebla with 7 points and 17th-placed Santos Laguna with 0 points

æ°—ă„Puebla aims to secure their top-half spot while the visitors desperately seek their first points of the season

Form

Puebla enters with a LWLDW form-string and recorded a 3-2 away win against Pachuca in their last match

Santos Laguna shows a WLLLL form-curve with four consecutive defeats

Explanation of form codes: W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

The hosts have recorded 2 wins and 1 draw recently while the visitors have 1 win and 4 losses

Statistics

Puebla averages 1.00 scored goals and 2.00 conceded goals per match this season

Santos Laguna averages 1.24 goals scored and 1.94 goals conceded per game

Santos Laguna's away struggles are visible with 3.14 goals conceded on average on the road

Puebla concedes an average of 1.60 goals in their home fixtures

Head-to-Head

In the last 4 head-to-head encounters Puebla has secured 3 wins compared to 1 win for Santos Laguna

The goal difference in these direct matches stands at 5-2 in favor of Puebla

Their last meeting on March 22, 2026, ended in a 2-1 home victory for Santos Laguna

Puebla has been the historically dominant side in recent meetings

Key Players

Carlos Baltazar is a key midfielder for Puebla with 4 goals and 3 assists this season

Ezequiel Bullaude leads Santos Laguna's midfield with 5 goals and 4 assists

Fernando MonĂĄrrez recently scored 1 goal in his last 5 defensive outings for Puebla

Aldo LĂłpez solidifies the visitors' midfield with 4 goals this season

Kevin Velasco contributed 3 assists in 14 appearances for the home side

Fran Villalba completes Santos Laguna's midfield options with 3 goals this season

Goalkeepers

Daniel Gutiérrez guards Puebla's goal with an average rating of 6.91

Carlos Acevedo plays in goal for Santos Laguna with a season rating of 6.93

Both goalkeepers have recorded 6 clean sheets so far this season

Influences

The game will be played on natural grass at the Estadio Cuauhtémoc

Stadium records indicate an average of 2.4 goals per game with a 60% BTTS rate

Puebla benefits from playing at home where Santos Laguna has historically struggled defensively

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