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Liga MX

Necaxa - Cruz Azul

08/29/2026, 01:00 AM

1 : 3
Expected Goals
Necaxa
1.5
Total xG
2.9
Cruz Azul
1.4
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

9%

1:2

8%

2:0

6%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
NECCA

Necaxa

Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
+0.32
Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
+0.23
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.01
Strong home record (2 vs 1.4 goals/match)

Cruz Azul

Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean
+0.36
Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.12
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.08
Luka Romero on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)
13% of goal output missing (only 84% available)
Weak away record (1.5 vs 1.9 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.41
+0.41
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Cruz Azul: 8 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Atlético San Luis: 2 goals (81', 90+3')

  • 2
    Cruz Azul: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 3
    Necaxa: 2.6 cards per game (24 yellows, 7 reds in 12 games)

  • 4
    Cruz Azul: 73% of all goals in the second half (16 of 22, last 12 games)

  • 5
    Necaxa: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (6 of 12 total)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

37%

Draw

28%

Away Win

35%

Goals

Over 1.5

79%

Under 1.5

21%

Over 2.5

55%

Under 2.5

45%

Over 3.5

32%

Under 3.5

68%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

65%

Away or Draw

63%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

59%

No

41%

Key Factors
  • Tactical dominance: Cruz Azul averaged 6.8 shots on target with 58.6% possession in recent matches
  • H2H history: Cruz Azul won 3 of the last 4 direct encounters against Necaxa, with a goal difference of 11-3
  • Balanced prediction: The mathematical model predicts a close game with 1.45 expected goals for Necaxa and 1.41 for Cruz Azul
Risk Factors
  • Squad impact: Luka Romero is missing from the visitors' squad, leaving only 85% of regular goal threat available
  • Negative trend: Cruz Azul lost their last three league matches in a row
  • Away vulnerability: Cruz Azul conceded an average of 1.30 goals per away game this season
Overview

Necaxa host Cruz Azul at the Estadio Victoria de Aguascalientes

Liga MX match on August 29, 2026, 3:00 AM

Necaxa is in 11th place with 7 points, while Cruz Azul sits in 12th place with 6 points

Both teams are positioned closely in the mid-table

Form

Necaxa form: WWLLD - 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses

Cruz Azul form: WWLLL - 2 wins, 3 consecutive losses

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Necaxa recently secured a 1-1 draw against Pumas UNAM

Cruz Azul lost their last three league matches, most recently 0-2 against Atlas

Statistics

Necaxa scores an average of 1.26 goals per game and concedes 1.68

Cruz Azul has a stronger offense with 1.77 goals per game and concedes an average of only 1.09

In home matches, Necaxa scored 21 goals in 17 games

Cruz Azul scored an average of 1.80 goals per away game this season

Head-to-Head

Cruz Azul dominates the historical matchups with 3 wins from 4 games

No wins for Necaxa, with 1 draw between them

The goal difference stands at 11-3 in favor of Cruz Azul

The last direct meeting ended in a clear 4-1 victory for Cruz Azul on April 27, 2026

Key Players

JuliĂĄn Carranza is the top attacker with 4 goals in 4 appearances and a 7.37 rating

Danny Leyva contributes a strong average rating of 7.14 in midfield

MatĂ­as EspĂ­ndola scored 1 goal in 3 appearances for the team

Jeremy MĂĄrquez shines with 2 goals and 1 assist in 5 games

AgustĂ­n Palavecino achieves an average rating of 7.12 in midfield

José Paradela provided 1 assist in 5 games

Goalkeepers

Luis Jiménez appeared 5 times this season, securing 3 home clean sheets

Kevin Mier guarded the goal in 4 matches, recording 4 away clean sheets

The goalkeeper duel statistically suggests solid defensive potential

Influences

The match is played on natural grass at the Estadio Victoria de Aguascalientes

Necaxa conceded an average of 1.00 goals per home game across 17 matches

The venue history shows an average of 2.2 goals per game

Both teams scored in 80% of matches played at the Estadio Victoria de Aguascalientes

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