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Liga MX08/29/2026, 01:00 AM

Necaxa – Cruz Azul1 : 3

Why the model thinks so

Necaxa
1.45
Total xG
2.86
Cruz Azul
1.41
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff

How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.

FactorNecaxaCruz Azul
High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)+0.41+0.41
Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean+0.36
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean+0.32
Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)+0.23
Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)−0.12
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)−0.08
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)+0.01
Luka Romero on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)
13% of goal output missing (only 84% available)
Strong home record (2 vs 1.4 goals/match)
Weak away record (1.5 vs 1.9 goals/match)

Key factors

  • Tactical dominance: Cruz Azul averaged 6.8 shots on target with 58.6% possession in recent matches
  • H2H history: Cruz Azul won 3 of the last 4 direct encounters against Necaxa, with a goal difference of 11-3
  • Balanced prediction: The mathematical model predicts a close game with 1.45 expected goals for Necaxa and 1.41 for Cruz Azul

Risks

  • Squad impact: Luka Romero is missing from the visitors' squad, leaving only 85% of regular goal threat available
  • Negative trend: Cruz Azul lost their last three league matches in a row
  • Away vulnerability: Cruz Azul conceded an average of 1.30 goals per away game this season

All probabilities

Result
Necaxa37%
Draw28%
Cruz Azul35%
Goals
Over 1.579%
Under 1.521%
Over 2.555%
Under 2.545%
Over 3.532%
Under 3.568%
Double chance
Necaxa or draw65%
Cruz Azul or draw63%
No draw72%
Both teams score
Yes59%
No41%

Most likely scores

1:1
13%
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:0
6%
2:2
6%
1:3
Final score

The Lab

Patterns our system found in the data.

  1. Cruz Azul: 8 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Atlético San Luis: 2 goals (81', 90+3')
  2. Cruz Azul: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
  3. Necaxa: 2.6 cards per game (24 yellows, 7 reds in 12 games)
  4. Cruz Azul: 73% of all goals in the second half (16 of 22, last 12 games)
  5. Necaxa: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (6 of 12 total)

Lineups

Necaxa 3-5-2 · Cruz Azul 5-4-1

Necaxa
  • 12 L. JimĂ©nez GonzĂĄlez
  • 5 K. Marques Naves
  • 4 A. Peña LĂłpez
  • 3 A. Oliveros Cano
  • 13 O. de JesĂșs GonzĂĄlez Ojeda
  • 21 M. EspĂ­ndola
  • 6 D. Leyva
  • 8 L. Faravelli
  • 88 C. Vargas Tenorio
  • 9 J. Carranza
  • 10 J. Ruiz
Cruz Azul
  • 23 K. Mier Robles
  • 55 Rogelio GonzĂĄlez
  • 4 W. Ditta PĂ©rez
  • 17 A. GarcĂ­a Moreno
  • 5 J. Orozco Chiquete
  • 3 O. Campos Chagoya
  • 20 J. Paradela
  • 8 A. Palavecino Lamela
  • 16 Á. MĂĄrquez Castañeda
  • 19 C. RodrĂ­guez GĂłmez
  • 7 N. Ibåñez
Substitutes
  • 15 D. Ochoa
  • 16 P. Pedraza Reyna
  • 17 R. CortĂ©z Pineda
  • 99 Miguel Rodriguez
  • 14 M. Zaleta
  • 20 F. MĂ©ndez Lara
  • 33 R. MartĂ­nez Ruiz
  • 1 C. Andrade MartĂ­n
  • 11 J. Torres Patiño
  • 90 J. Valencia Longa
  • 1 A. Gudiño Portillo
  • 18 L. Romero
  • 12 A. Montes Castro
  • 21 G. FernĂĄndez Leites
  • 22 J. Rodarte BarragĂĄn
  • 10 A. Montaño
  • 11 O. Ebere
  • 49 J. DĂ­az GonzĂĄlez
  • 27 B. Gamboa Galarza
  • 70 I. Alberto Silva DĂ­az

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