DumbleScore
Match report →
Liga MX08/30/2026, 03:10 AM

Santos Laguna – Tigres UANL0 : 0

Why the model thinks so

Santos Laguna
1.30
Total xG
2.63
Tigres UANL
1.33
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff

How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.

FactorSantos LagunaTigres UANL
Attack weakness (0.79x league average)−0.54
Defensive strength (2 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)+0.47
High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)+0.40+0.40
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean+0.35
Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean+0.34
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)−0.11
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)−0.11
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.2 season average)−0.11
Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)−0.11
50% of goal output missing (only 78% available)
Full strength squad available

Key factors

  • Historical dominance: Tigres UANL won all 4 direct duels with a goal difference of 12:1
  • Tactical superiority: Tigres UANL dominated recent matches with an average of 57% possession, while Santos Laguna averaged only 2.8 shots on target
  • Limited goal threat: According to squad analysis, only 11% of the visitors' seasonal goal production is currently active

Risks

  • Offensive weakness: Santos Laguna averaged only 2.8 shots on target in recent matches
  • Away defensive vulnerability: Tigres UANL concedes an average of 1.87 goals per away game

All probabilities

Result
Santos Laguna35%
Draw29%
Tigres UANL36%
Goals
Over 1.576%
Under 1.524%
Over 2.549%
Under 2.551%
Over 3.527%
Under 3.573%
Double chance
Santos Laguna or draw64%
Tigres UANL or draw65%
No draw71%
Both teams score
Yes55%
No45%

Most likely scores

1:1
14%
1:2
8%
2:1
8%
0:2
6%
2:0
6%
0:0
Final score

The Lab

Patterns our system found in the data.

  1. Tigres UANL: 7 of 17 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
  2. Santos Laguna: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)

Lineups

Santos Laguna 3-4-1-2 · Tigres UANL 4-2-3-1

Santos Laguna
  • 1 C. Acevedo LĂłpez
  • 18 F. Pardo
  • 25 F. Sanchez
  • 14 E. Orona Zavala
  • 3 M. Cuevas
  • 5 A. LĂłpez Vargas
  • 21 F. Villalba Rodrigo
  • 7 D. Gonzalez Alcaraz
  • 77 K. Palacios Salazar
  • 10 E. Bullaude
  • 26 R. Sordo
Tigres UANL
  • 1 N. GuzmĂĄn
  • 14 J. Garza GarcĂ­a
  • 28 J. Pereira Silva
  • 15 A. Franco
  • 32 V. Loroña Aguilar
  • 8 F. GorriarĂĄn Fontes
  • 23 R. Zanre Zwarg
  • 16 D. Lainez Leyva
  • 11 J. Brunetta
  • 30 D. SĂĄnchez Guevara
  • 17 R. Aguirre Soto
Substitutes
  • 19 E. Aguirre Lara
  • 4 J. Abella Fanjul
  • 6 J. GĂŒemez LĂłpez
  • 8 S. Mariscal Murra
  • 17 E. EcheverrĂ­a Mata
  • 24 D. Medina VĂĄzquez
  • 33 H. HolguĂ­n
  • 28 J. PĂ©rez SĂĄnchez
  • 193 L. GĂłmez Bernal
  • 15 J. Mancha GarcĂ­a
  • 25 C. RodrĂ­guez Rangel
  • 21 R. Monreal Morales
  • 19 M. LaĂ­nez Leyva
  • 33 R. Guerrero Ramirez
  • 26 F. Ordóñez Delgado
  • 2 F. Reyes Maldonado
  • 34 H. Koifman
  • 198 I.GalvĂĄn
  • 200 D. Ramirez
  • 192 E. Ávila

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.

Create Account →