Match report →
Toluca – Juárez4 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Toluca
1.67
Total xG
2.59
Juárez
0.93
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Toluca | Juárez |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.51x league average) | −0.76 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.9 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.58 | |
| Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean | +0.47 | |
| High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match) | +0.33 | +0.33 |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.25 | |
| Declining form (0.6 vs 1.4 season average) | −0.25 | |
| Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean | −0.21 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.15 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 18 vs 5, 13 places gap) | −0.14 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 18, 13 places gap) | +0.10 | |
| Weak away record (0.3 vs 1.4 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Huge form gap: Toluca sits in 5th place with 10 points, while Juárez is at the bottom of the table with zero points and five consecutive losses
- Tactical dominance: Toluca recently averaged 61% possession and 5.0 shots on target per game, whereas Juárez averaged only 1.6 shots on target
- Mathematical prediction: The calculation model forecasts a home win with a probability of 53%
Risks
- Away weakness: Juárez concedes an average of 2.25 goals per away game
- Lack of offensive threat: Juárez recently averaged only 1.6 shots on target per match
- Limited data availability regarding injured players and squad impact
All probabilities
Result
Toluca53%
Draw27%
Juárez19%
Goals
Over 1.575%
Under 1.525%
Over 2.548%
Under 2.552%
Over 3.526%
Under 3.574%
Double chance
Toluca or draw81%
Juárez or draw47%
No draw73%
Both teams score
Yes50%
No50%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:0
10%
2:1
10%
3:0
6%
1:2
5%
4:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Juárez: opponent scores first in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Juárez: 46% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (6 of 13)
Lineups
Toluca 4-3-1-2 · Juárez 4-2-3-1
Toluca
- 1 H. González Durán
- 184 Sebastián Aceves
- 13 L. Garcia Teixeira
- 6 A. Pereira Castelnoble
- 25 E. López
- 5 F. Romero
- 11 H. Nunes de Castro
- 7 V. Guzmán Guzmán
- 9 E. Vega Rojas
- 29 J. Díaz Price
- 23 O. Virgen
Juárez
- 1 S. Jurado Roca
- 33 F. Nevarez Pulgarin
- 3 J. Murillo Largacha
- 2 G. Sepúlveda López
- 20 J. Aquino Carmona
- 5 D. García Bojórquez
- 13 R. Dourado Cunha
- 10 Í. Torres Ramírez
- 6 Monchu
- 11 J. Rodríguez Francis
- 19 O. Estupiñán Vallesilla
Substitutes
- 16 F. Viñas Barboza
- 20 J. Gallardo Vasconcelos
- 4 B. Méndez Cittadini
- 8 N. Castro
- 15 P. Uriel Perez Hernandez
- 24 F. Arce Juárez
- 3 A. Briseño Vázquez
- 198 J. Estrada
- 192 L. Navarrete Torres
- 12 Ronaldo Beltrán Dimas
- 4 M. Mayorga Almaráz
- 8 G. Castilho Carvalho
- 9 M. de Souza Silva
- 21 R. Oliveira António
- 24 B. Díaz Jáuregui
- 14 E. López Castro
- 23 Ó. Ortega Gatica
- 16 J. Sigala García
- 7 R. Fulgencio Román
- 201 J. Carmona Núñez
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