Liga MX
Toluca - Juárez
08/31/2026, 12:00 AM
Expected Goals
1.7
2.6
0.9
1:1
13%2:0
10%2:1
10%3:0
6%1:2
5%What influences the xG?
Toluca
Juárez
League
The Lab
- 1Juárez: opponent scores first in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- 2Juárez: 46% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (6 of 13)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
53%
Draw
27%
Away Win
19%
Goals
Over 1.5
75%
Under 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
48%
Under 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
26%
Under 3.5
74%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
81%
Away or Draw
47%
No Draw
73%
Both Score
Yes
50%
No
50%
Key Factors
- Huge form gap: Toluca sits in 5th place with 10 points, while Juárez is at the bottom of the table with zero points and five consecutive losses
- Tactical dominance: Toluca recently averaged 61% possession and 5.0 shots on target per game, whereas Juárez averaged only 1.6 shots on target
- Mathematical prediction: The calculation model forecasts a home win with a probability of 53%
Risk Factors
- Away weakness: Juárez concedes an average of 2.25 goals per away game
- Lack of offensive threat: Juárez recently averaged only 1.6 shots on target per match
- Limited data availability regarding injured players and squad impact
Overview
Toluca (5th place, 10 points) hosts Juárez (18th place, 0 points) at Estadio Nemesio Díez
Liga MX match on August 31, 2026, 2:00 AM
The hosts enter as clear favorites against the bottom-placed team
Form
Toluca shows a stable trend with the form WLWDW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
The hosts recently recorded 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss
Juárez is in a deep crisis with the form LLLLL
The away side has 0 wins and 5 consecutive losses
Statistics
Toluca scores an average of 1.86 goals per game this season while conceding 1.02
In home games, Toluca concedes only 0.85 goals on average
Juárez concedes an average of 2.25 goals per away game
The venue statistics show an average of 3.8 goals per match
Head-to-Head
Toluca dominates the head-to-head record with 4 wins out of 5 matches
Juárez has not won any of these meetings with only 1 draw recorded
The goal difference stands at a clear 11:2 in favor of Toluca
The last direct encounter on March 8, 2026, ended in a 3-1 victory for Toluca
Key Players
Helinho impresses with an average rating of 7.35, one goal, and two assists
Alexis Vega holds a rating of 7.37 with one goal scored this season
Federico Pereira stabilizes the defense with a strong rating of 7.64
José Luis Rodríguez scored one goal, provided two assists, and has a rating of 6.94
Óscar Estupiñán is the top scorer with two goals and a rating of 6.65
Sebastián Jurado has an average goalkeeper rating of 6.82 this season
Goalkeepers
Hugo González plays in goal for Toluca and holds an average rating of 6.9
Toluca has secured 13 clean sheets overall this season
Sebastián Jurado guards the goal for Juárez with a rating of 6.82
Juárez has recorded only 3 clean sheets this season
Influences
The grass surface at Estadio Nemesio Díez provides excellent playing conditions
Toluca's home strength is highlighted by an average of 1.85 goals scored and only 0.85 conceded at home
Juárez shows significant difficulties away from home, conceding an average of 2.25 goals
Venue statistics point towards high-scoring games with an average of 3.8 goals per match