Match report →
América – Puebla2 : 0
Why the model thinks so
América
1.68
Total xG
2.76
Puebla
1.08
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | América | Puebla |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.73x league average) | −0.72 | |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | +0.49 | |
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.40 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.40 | +0.40 |
| Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean | −0.19 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.17 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.2 season average) | +0.17 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.08 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 7 vs 1, 6 places gap) | −0.07 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 7, 6 places gap) | +0.05 | |
| Henry Martin on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Raphael Veiga on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Kevin Álvarez on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Isaías Violante on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 82% of goal output missing (only 22% available) |
Key factors
- Critical squad impact: América has only 22% of their goal threat available with Henry Martin, Raphael Veiga, Kevin Álvarez, and Isaías Violante missing
- Tactical dominance: América averaged 7.2 shots on target and 58% possession in recent matches
- Away defense struggles: Puebla conceded an average of 2.57 goals per away game this season
Risks
- Defensive issues on the road: Puebla concedes an average of 2.57 goals per away game
- Limited data regarding injured or suspended players for the away team
All probabilities
Result
América50%
Draw27%
Puebla23%
Goals
Over 1.578%
Under 1.522%
Over 2.552%
Under 2.548%
Over 3.530%
Under 3.570%
Double chance
América or draw77%
Puebla or draw50%
No draw73%
Both teams score
Yes55%
No45%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:1
10%
2:0
9%
1:2
6%
3:1
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Puebla: dropped a lead in 5 of 8 games (13 points lost)
- América: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
América 4-2-3-1 · Puebla 4-2-3-1
América
- 21 F. Tapia Méndez
- 2 E. Lara Contreras
- 29 R. Del Castillo
- 32 M. Vázquez García
- 34 D. Espinoza Acosta
- 6 E. Cerrillo
- 27 Í. da Conceição
- 186 D. Arriaga García
- 20 A. Gutiérrez Torres
- 22 ?. Perea Abonce
- 189 A. Cárdenas
Puebla
- 28 R. Gutiérrez Hernández
- 12 I. Moreno
- 5 F. Almada
- 4 J. Vargas Campos
- 7 F. Monarrez Ochoa
- 24 A. Organista Orozco
- 16 A. Ramírez Jiménez
- 27 B. Garnica Cortéz
- 26 K. Velasco Bonilla
- 22 C. Baltazar Agraz
- 29 E. Mustre Torres
Substitutes
- 3 I. Reyes Romero
- 28 E. Sánchez Ocegueda
- 5 K. Álvarez Campos
- 26 C. Borja González
- 4 S. Cáceres Ramos
- 7 P. Rodríguez Bravo
- 23 R. Cavalcante Veiga
- 12 I. Violante Romero
- 30 R. Cota Robles
- 9 H. Martín Mex
- 10 M. Tomás Borges
- 3 A. Herrera Rodríguez
- 20 J. Pachuca Martinez
- 33 J. Rodríguez Trujillo
- 15 O. Villa Domínguez
- 8 O. Moreno Villegas
- 2 ?. Leyva
- 21 S. Sanabria Ortega
- 9 L. Hernández Quintero
- 34 L. Azevedo da Silva
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