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Liga MX

América - Puebla

08/30/2026, 01:05 AM

2 : 0
Expected Goals
América
1.7
Total xG
2.8
Puebla
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

10%

2:0

9%

1:2

6%

3:1

5%
What influences the xG?
AMÉPUE

América

Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.40
Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean
-0.19
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.08
Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 7, 6 places gap)
+0.05
Henry Martin on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists)
Raphael Veiga on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)
Kevin Álvarez on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
Isaías Violante on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
82% of goal output missing (only 22% available)

Puebla

Attack weakness (0.73x league average)
-0.72
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
+0.49
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.17
Rising form (1.8 vs 1.2 season average)
+0.17
Standings disadvantage (pos 7 vs 1, 6 places gap)
-0.07

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.40
+0.40
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Puebla: dropped a lead in 5 of 8 games (13 points lost)

  • 2
    América: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

50%

Draw

27%

Away Win

23%

Goals

Over 1.5

78%

Under 1.5

22%

Over 2.5

52%

Under 2.5

48%

Over 3.5

30%

Under 3.5

70%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

77%

Away or Draw

50%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

55%

No

45%

Key Factors
  • Critical squad impact: América has only 22% of their goal threat available with Henry Martin, Raphael Veiga, Kevin Álvarez, and Isaías Violante missing
  • Tactical dominance: América averaged 7.2 shots on target and 58% possession in recent matches
  • Away defense struggles: Puebla conceded an average of 2.57 goals per away game this season
Risk Factors
  • Defensive issues on the road: Puebla concedes an average of 2.57 goals per away game
  • Limited data regarding injured or suspended players for the away team
Overview

América hosts Puebla at the Estadio Banorte

League leaders face the 7th-placed team in Liga MX

Match on August 30, 2026, 3:05 AM

América aims to defend their top position

Form

América is unbeaten in 5 games with a form of WDWWW

They won their last match 2-1 against Juárez

Puebla shows a form of WLDWW

The visitors won their last game 3-2 against Santos Laguna

Form-Strings: W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

América scores an average of 1.61 goals and concedes 1.16 goals per season

Puebla averages 1.00 goal scored and 2.00 goals conceded per match

In home matches América concedes only 0.95 goals on average

Puebla concedes an average of 2.57 goals per away game

The average total goals at this venue is 2.0 goals per game

Head-to-Head

4 head-to-head matches recorded

América leads with 3 wins to Puebla's 1 win

The last match ended in a clear 4-0 away victory for América on February 21, 2026

Overall goal difference is 8-3 in favor of América

Key Players

Dagoberto Espinoza (Defender) has 2 assists and a season rating of 7.04

Óscar Perea (Attacker) scored 1 goal in 2 games with a 6.69 rating

Eduardo Mustre Torres (Attacker) scored 3 goals this season with a 7.07 rating

Goalkeepers

Fernando Tapia has played 1 match for América with a 6.89 rating

América has kept 11 clean sheets this season

Daniel Gutiérrez played 5 matches for Puebla with a 6.95 rating

Puebla has 6 clean sheets overall this season

Influences

The match is played on grass at the Estadio Banorte

Average goals at this venue stand at 2.0 per match

América recorded 7 home clean sheets this season

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