đŸ‡ČđŸ‡œ

Liga MX

Pachuca - Guadalajara

08/29/2026, 11:00 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Pachuca
1.3
Total xG
2.8
Guadalajara
1.5
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:2

9%

2:1

8%

0:2

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
PACGUA

Pachuca

Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean
+0.27
Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 5, 9 places gap)
-0.13
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.01

Guadalajara

Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean
+0.19
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.09
Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 14, 9 places gap)
+0.06
Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.06
Full strength squad available

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.40
+0.40
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Pachuca: 3.1 cards per game (28 yellows, 6 reds in 11 games)

  • 2
    Guadalajara: first goal in 7 of 10 games (70%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

31%

Draw

28%

Away Win

41%

Goals

Over 1.5

78%

Under 1.5

22%

Over 2.5

52%

Under 2.5

48%

Over 3.5

30%

Under 3.5

70%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

59%

Away or Draw

69%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

57%

No

43%

Key Factors
  • Head-to-head dominance: Guadalajara won all 4 previous matches against Pachuca
  • Tactical dominance: Guadalajara averaged 6.6 shots on target in recent matches
  • RondĂłn's threat: SalomĂłn RondĂłn is in strong form with 5 goals in 5 games for Pachuca
Risk Factors
  • Critical squad impact: Guadalajara only has 10% of its seasonal goal contribution available
  • Defensive vulnerability away: Guadalajara concede an average of 1.88 goals per away match
  • Pachuca's low target volume: The hosts averaged only 2.8 shots on target in recent matches
Overview

Pachuca host Guadalajara at the Estadio Hidalgo

Liga MX match on August 29, 2026, 11:00 PM

Pachuca sit in 14th place with 4 points

Guadalajara occupy 5th place with 10 points

The mathematical model predicts a 41% win probability for the away team

Form

Pachuca's form is WLLLD with 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses

Guadalajara's form is LWDWW with 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss

Pachuca's scoring form remains stable according to advanced metrics

Guadalajara's form trend is classified as negative despite recent results

Statistics

Pachuca average 1.35 goals scored per match this season

Guadalajara average 1.75 goals scored per game

Pachuca concede an average of 0.90 goals per home match

Guadalajara concede an average of 1.88 goals per away game

Head-to-Head

Guadalajara dominate the head-to-head history with 4 wins in 4 matches

The goal difference stands at 7:1 in favor of the visitors

The last direct meeting ended in a 2:0 victory for Guadalajara

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Key Players

SalomĂłn RondĂłn is Pachuca's top scorer with 5 goals in 5 games

Roberto Alvarado leads the visitors with 3 goals and 1 assist

Santiago Sandoval scored 4 goals in recent matches for Guadalajara

Goalkeepers

Carlos AgustĂ­n Moreno Luna has a 7.19 rating in 5 games for Pachuca

RaĂșl Rangel has a 6.86 rating in 5 games for Guadalajara

Pachuca recorded 10 clean sheets this season

Guadalajara secured 14 clean sheets this season

Influences

The match will be played on grass at the Estadio Hidalgo

The stadium features a historical average of 2.6 goals per match

The venue's BTTS rate stands at 60%

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.