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Pachuca – Guadalajara1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Pachuca
1.28
Total xG
2.77
Guadalajara
1.49
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Pachuca | Guadalajara |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.40 | +0.40 |
| Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean | +0.27 | |
| Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean | +0.19 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 5, 9 places gap) | −0.13 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.09 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 14, 9 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.06 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.01 | |
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Head-to-head dominance: Guadalajara won all 4 previous matches against Pachuca
- Tactical dominance: Guadalajara averaged 6.6 shots on target in recent matches
- Rondón's threat: Salomón Rondón is in strong form with 5 goals in 5 games for Pachuca
Risks
- Critical squad impact: Guadalajara only has 10% of its seasonal goal contribution available
- Defensive vulnerability away: Guadalajara concede an average of 1.88 goals per away match
- Pachuca's low target volume: The hosts averaged only 2.8 shots on target in recent matches
All probabilities
Result
Pachuca31%
Draw28%
Guadalajara41%
Goals
Over 1.578%
Under 1.522%
Over 2.552%
Under 2.548%
Over 3.530%
Under 3.570%
Double chance
Pachuca or draw59%
Guadalajara or draw69%
No draw72%
Both teams score
Yes57%
No43%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:2
9%
2:1
8%
0:2
7%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Pachuca: 3.1 cards per game (28 yellows, 6 reds in 11 games)
- Guadalajara: first goal in 7 of 10 games (70%)
Lineups
Pachuca 4-3-3 · Guadalajara 3-4-2-1
Pachuca
- 25 C. Moreno
- 14 C. Sánchez Nava
- 13 J. Berlanga
- 2 S. Barreto
- 15 F. Venegas Moreno
- 10 E. Montiel
- 16 C. Rivera Cuéllar
- 26 A. Bautista Gutiérrez
- 29 R. Nunes do Nascimento
- 23 J. Rondón Giménez
- 11 O. Idrissi
Guadalajara
- 1 J. Rangel Aguilar
- 24 M. Gómez Ortiz
- 3 D. Campillo del Campo
- 7 L. Romo Barrón
- 30 S. Sandoval Loboa
- 6 O. Govea García
- 28 F. González Pineda
- 14 H. Camberos Figueroa
- 25 R. Alvarado Hernández
- 10 E. Álvarez
- 17 R. Marín Sánchez
Substitutes
- 9 A. Alcaraz Torales
- 7 R. Pizarro Thomas
- 31 J. Eulogio Téllez
- 6 M. Isaís
- 30 S. Rodriguez
- 21 J. Vallejo
- 187 G. Álvarez Montiel
- 32 P. Budib Peniche
- 28 A. Arroyo Romero
- 206 T. Hernández
- 11 B. Gutierrez
- 37 R. Ledezma
- 9 Á. Sepúlveda Sánchez
- 19 K. Castañeda Vargas
- 16 L. Rey Mejía
- 13 Ó. Whalley Guardado
- 33 J. Carrillo Rodríguez
- 57 J. Hernandez
- 59 C. Inda Becerra
- 18 J. Perez
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