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Liga MX08/29/2026, 03:10 AM

Tijuana – Pumas UNAM2 : 0

Why the model thinks so

Tijuana
1.48
Total xG
2.57
Pumas UNAM
1.09
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff

How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.

FactorTijuanaPumas UNAM
Attack weakness (0.42x league average)−1.05
Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean+0.75
High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)+0.41+0.41
Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)−0.10
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean−0.05
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)−0.04
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)−0.02
Juninho on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists)
42% of goal output missing (only 86% available)
Weak away record (1 vs 1.7 goals/match)

Key factors

  • Strong home record: Tijuana concedes only 0.57 goals per game on average in their own stadium
  • Mathematical advantage: The prediction model forecasts a home win with a probability of 45%
  • Artificial turf experience: Tijuana holds a solid home record of 5 wins in 10 matches on synthetic grass

Risks

  • Missing key player: Juninho (3 goals) is not in the lineup for Pumas UNAM
  • Declining defense: Tijuana's average goals conceded rose recently from 1.43 to 1.75 in their last matches
  • Low attacking precision: Both teams averaged fewer than 3.7 shots on target per match in recent games

All probabilities

Result
Tijuana45%
Draw29%
Pumas UNAM26%
Goals
Over 1.574%
Under 1.526%
Over 2.547%
Under 2.553%
Over 3.526%
Under 3.574%
Double chance
Tijuana or draw74%
Pumas UNAM or draw55%
No draw71%
Both teams score
Yes53%
No47%

Most likely scores

1:1
14%
2:1
9%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
5%

The Lab

Patterns our system found in the data.

  1. Tijuana: 6 of 18 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
  2. Tijuana: first goal in 7 of 10 games (70%)
  3. Tijuana: 33% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (6 of 18)
  4. Pumas UNAM: 61% of all goals in the first half (11 of 18, last 12 games)

Lineups

Tijuana 4-1-4-1 · Pumas UNAM 5-4-1

Tijuana
  • 2 J. RodrĂ­guez Romero
  • 3 R. FernĂĄndez Inzunza
  • 12 J. Porozo Vernaza
  • 6 J. GĂłmez Molina
  • 16 J. Vega Grijalva
  • 8 I. Tona Olmeda
  • 11 F. GonzĂĄlez
  • 31 J. Padilla Sandoval
  • 10 G. Mora Zambrano
  • 7 A. Preciado Quintero
  • 9 M. Daoudi El Ghezouani
Pumas UNAM
  • 1 K. Navas Gamboa
  • 7 R. LĂłpez Quiñones
  • 2 P. Bennevendo Peña
  • 6 N. da Silva
  • 5 R. Duarte SĂĄnchez
  • 21 C. Antuna Romero
  • 22 A. Medina Camacho
  • 8 A. Carrasquilla AlcĂĄzar
  • 18 V. Arteaga Camarena
  • 14 L. Herrera
  • 31 R. Morales
Substitutes
  • 20 ?. Zapata Praga
  • 26 A. Perez
  • 4 U. Bilbao Arteta
  • 17 R. Árciga ZĂĄrate
  • 18 A. MejĂ­a Montoya
  • 29 J. HernĂĄndez Soriano
  • 33 P. OrtĂ­z
  • 202 J. GonzĂĄlez Cera
  • 34 F. Boya
  • 19 D. Abreu Firenze
  • 9 G. MartĂ­nez Ayala
  • 45 P. Vite Uca
  • 19 J. Rivas GutiĂ©rrez
  • 15 I. Luna LĂłpez
  • 12 C. CalderĂłn Del Real
  • 13 P. Monroy Reyes
  • 20 S. Trigos Nava
  • 34 ?. Azuaje GarcĂ­a
  • 35 P. Lara Nevarez
  • 23 O. Vieira dos Santos JĂșnior

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