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Liga MX

Tijuana - Pumas UNAM

08/29/2026, 03:10 AM

2 : 0
Expected Goals
Tijuana
1.5
Total xG
2.6
Pumas UNAM
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

2:0

8%

1:2

7%

2:2

5%
What influences the xG?
TIJPU

Tijuana

Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.10
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
-0.05
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.02

Pumas UNAM

Attack weakness (0.42x league average)
-1.05
Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean
+0.75
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.04
Juninho on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists)
42% of goal output missing (only 86% available)
Weak away record (1 vs 1.7 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.41
+0.41
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Tijuana: 6 of 18 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)

  • 2
    Tijuana: first goal in 7 of 10 games (70%)

  • 3
    Tijuana: 33% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (6 of 18)

  • 4
    Pumas UNAM: 61% of all goals in the first half (11 of 18, last 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

45%

Draw

29%

Away Win

26%

Goals

Over 1.5

74%

Under 1.5

26%

Over 2.5

47%

Under 2.5

53%

Over 3.5

26%

Under 3.5

74%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

74%

Away or Draw

55%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

53%

No

47%

Key Factors
  • Strong home record: Tijuana concedes only 0.57 goals per game on average in their own stadium
  • Mathematical advantage: The prediction model forecasts a home win with a probability of 45%
  • Artificial turf experience: Tijuana holds a solid home record of 5 wins in 10 matches on synthetic grass
Risk Factors
  • Missing key player: Juninho (3 goals) is not in the lineup for Pumas UNAM
  • Declining defense: Tijuana's average goals conceded rose recently from 1.43 to 1.75 in their last matches
  • Low attacking precision: Both teams averaged fewer than 3.7 shots on target per match in recent games
Overview

Tijuana hosts Pumas UNAM at the Estadio Caliente

Liga MX match on August 29, 2026, 5:10 AM

Only two points separate the teams in the standings

Tijuana occupies 6th place with 10 points

Pumas UNAM is in 9th position with 8 points

Form

Tijuana's recent form across all competitions is WWDWL

Their last match ended in a 2-5 defeat against Guadalajara

Pumas UNAM travel with a form curve of LWWDD

The visitors recently recorded a 1-1 draw against Necaxa

Pumas UNAM have drawn two consecutive matches

Statistics

Tijuana scores an average of 1.46 goals per game this season

Their home defense is strong with only 0.57 goals conceded per match

Pumas UNAM average 1.63 goals scored per match overall

The away team concedes 1.50 goals per game on the road

Tijuana's home venue averages 2.6 goals per game

Head-to-Head

Pumas UNAM won 2 of the last 4 direct matches

Tijuana secured 1 victory while 1 game ended in a draw

The most recent encounter between these teams ended in a 1-1 draw

The overall goal difference stands at 8-6 in favor of Pumas UNAM

Key Players

Mourad El Ghezouani has scored 2 goals this season

Gilberto Mora contributed 2 goals and 1 assist in midfield

Adonis Preciado registered 1 assist this season

Robert Morales recorded 1 goal and 3 assists

VĂ­ctor Arteaga has scored 1 goal this season

Adalberto Carrasquilla contributed 1 assist in midfield

Goalkeepers

Antonio RodrĂ­guez has been in goal for 5 matches this season

He boasts a total of 13 clean sheets throughout the season

Keylor Navas has also been on the pitch for multiple games

He has recorded 12 clean sheets in total

Influences

The match will be played on artificial turf

Tijuana has a home record of 5 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses on this surface

Pumas UNAM has recorded 2 draws from 2 matches on synthetic turf

Tijuana's defensive stability is enhanced by their home environment

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