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Liga MX

Atlante - León

08/29/2026, 01:00 AM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Atlante
1.3
Total xG
2.6
León
1.4
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:2

8%

2:1

8%

0:2

7%

2:0

6%
What influences the xG?
ATLLEÓ

Atlante

Attack weakness (0.66x league average)
-0.78
Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean
+0.52
Defensive weakness (1.8 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
+0.22
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.07
L. Calzadilla not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
16% of goal output missing (only 83% available)

León

Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+0.41
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.08
Rising form (1.4 vs 1.1 season average)
+0.08
Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean
-0.07
Attack weakness (0.79x league average)
+0.04
Daniel Arcila on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists)
Jordi Cortizo on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
61% of goal output missing (only 58% available)

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.41
+0.41
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    León with Díber Cambindo starting: 1.4 goals/game, without him: 0.7 (17/9 games, last 30)

  • 2
    León: 33% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (6 of 18)

  • 3
    León: 61% of all goals in the first half (11 of 18, last 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

33%

Draw

29%

Away Win

37%

Goals

Over 1.5

75%

Under 1.5

25%

Over 2.5

49%

Under 2.5

51%

Over 3.5

27%

Under 3.5

73%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

63%

Away or Draw

67%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

55%

No

45%

Key Factors
  • Form advantage for the visitors: León enters with a three-game winning streak, while Atlante comes off a 0-2 loss
  • León's improved attack: The visitors currently score more frequently (1.4 goals per match recently) than their season average (1.1)
  • Tactical metrics: León recently averaged 5.6 shots on target, whereas Atlante plays counter-oriented with 37.8% possession
Risk Factors
  • Daniel Arcila and Jordi Cortizo are missing, leaving only 59% of León's active goal threat available
  • Weak away defense: León concedes an extremely high average of 4.11 goals per away match
  • Atlante's goal struggle: The home side failed to score in 2 out of 5 matches this season
Overview

Atlante (13th place, 5 points) host León (8th place, 9 points) at the Estadio Banorte

Liga MX match on August 29, 2026, 3:00 AM

A mid-table clash with a slight advantage for the visitors

Form

Atlante shows mixed form with one win, two draws, and two losses (LDWDL)

León arrives with a streak of three consecutive wins (LLWWW)

The visitors recorded three wins and two losses in their last five matches

Statistics

Atlante averaged 1.0 goals scored and 1.4 goals conceded per match

León averages 1.06 goals scored and 1.85 goals conceded over the season

León is highly vulnerable away from home, conceding an average of 4.11 goals per away match

Key Players

For Atlante, Jhojan Julio (1 goal, 2 assists, 7.09 rating) and Eugenio Pizzuto (2 goals, 6.9 rating) lead the midfield

Luis Fernando Puente Prado leads Atlante's attack with one season goal

Not nominated is L. Calzadilla (1 goal, 1 assist)

León relies on attacker Díber Cambindo (1 goal, 1 assist, 7.08 rating)

He is supported by Fernando Beltrán (1 assist, 7.03 rating) and Juan Domínguez (1 goal)

Goalkeepers

Óscar Jiménez guards the goal for Atlante with a strong 7.28 average rating

Óscar García starts for León, holding a 7.23 average rating

León recorded 6 clean sheets this season, while Atlante has 1

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at the Estadio Banorte

Atlante's home advantage could play a role despite having played only one home match (1-1) so far

The stadium averages 2.6 goals per game historically

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