Match report →
Atlante – León1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Atlante
1.27
Total xG
2.63
León
1.36
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Atlante | León |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.66x league average) | −0.78 | |
| Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean | +0.52 | |
| Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.41 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.41 | +0.41 |
| Defensive weakness (1.8 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | +0.22 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.08 | |
| Rising form (1.4 vs 1.1 season average) | +0.08 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.07 | |
| Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean | −0.07 | |
| Attack weakness (0.79x league average) | +0.04 | |
| L. Calzadilla not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 16% of goal output missing (only 83% available) | ||
| Daniel Arcila on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Jordi Cortizo on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 61% of goal output missing (only 58% available) |
Key factors
- Form advantage for the visitors: León enters with a three-game winning streak, while Atlante comes off a 0-2 loss
- León's improved attack: The visitors currently score more frequently (1.4 goals per match recently) than their season average (1.1)
- Tactical metrics: León recently averaged 5.6 shots on target, whereas Atlante plays counter-oriented with 37.8% possession
Risks
- Daniel Arcila and Jordi Cortizo are missing, leaving only 59% of León's active goal threat available
- Weak away defense: León concedes an extremely high average of 4.11 goals per away match
- Atlante's goal struggle: The home side failed to score in 2 out of 5 matches this season
All probabilities
Result
Atlante33%
Draw29%
León37%
Goals
Over 1.575%
Under 1.525%
Over 2.549%
Under 2.551%
Over 3.527%
Under 3.573%
Double chance
Atlante or draw63%
León or draw67%
No draw71%
Both teams score
Yes55%
No45%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:2
8%
2:1
8%
0:2
7%
2:0
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- León with Díber Cambindo starting: 1.4 goals/game, without him: 0.7 (17/9 games, last 30)
- León: 33% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (6 of 18)
- León: 61% of all goals in the first half (11 of 18, last 12 games)
Lineups
Atlante 5-3-2 · León 4-1-3-2
Atlante
- 1 Ó. Jiménez Fabela
- 29 W. Portales
- 14 C. Alfaro
- 4 E. Tercero Méndez
- 44 A. Quiroz
- 27 A. Escobar Díaz
- 16 J. González
- 8 E. Pizzuto Puga
- 30 M. Sarrafiore
- 9 L. Puente Prado
- 7 J. Julio Palacios
León
- 23 O. García
- 7 I. Moreno Füguemann
- 3 J. Guevara
- 25 P. Bellón Saracho
- 5 S. Vegas Orellana
- 20 R. Echeverría Sáez
- 8 J. Domínguez Chonteco
- 6 F. Beltrán Cruz
- 203 J. Aldair Lara Sánchez
- 27 D. Cambindo Abonia
- 11 I. Díaz De León
Substitutes
- 25 M. Fernández Figueira
- 37 W. Clar Fritz
- 3 L. Sánchez Saucedo
- 11 J. Moxica Chapa
- 33 J. García Bonnet
- 32 D. Bagüí Tobar
- 20 G. Adame
- 6 N. Carrera
- 15 J. Charcopa Cabezas
- 10 Octavio Vázquez
- 15 S. Fierro González
- 4 B. Colula Alarcón
- 26 S. Reyes Chávez
- 22 S. Santos
- 19 J. Alvarado Pérez
- 29 J. Rodríguez Rebollar
- 16 J. Cortizo de la Piedra
- 13 D. Arcila
- 185 C. Mora Espinoza
- 181 I. Gutiérrez
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