Match report →
Atlas – Querétaro1 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Atlas
1.31
Total xG
2.61
Querétaro
1.30
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Atlas | Querétaro |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.6x league average) | −1.03 | |
| Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean | +0.78 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.40 | +0.40 |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.22 | |
| Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean | −0.19 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.7 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | +0.16 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 11 vs 3, 8 places gap) | −0.11 | |
| Rising form (1.5 vs 1.2 season average) | +0.09 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.07 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 11, 8 places gap) | +0.05 | |
| 10% of goal output missing (only 93% available) | ||
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Form trend: Atlas enters the match in strong form with four wins in their last five games (WWLWW)
- Tactical approach: Atlas averaged 4.2 shots on target per match in recent games
- Away vulnerability: Querétaro conceded an average of 2.50 goals per away match this season
Risks
- Tight prediction: The mathematical analysis estimates an extremely close match with a 35% win probability for both teams
- Tactical threat: Querétaro plays counter-oriented football, averaging only 40% possession in recent games to exploit quick transitions
All probabilities
Result
Atlas35%
Draw30%
Querétaro35%
Goals
Over 1.575%
Under 1.525%
Over 2.549%
Under 2.552%
Over 3.527%
Under 3.573%
Double chance
Atlas or draw65%
Querétaro or draw65%
No draw70%
Both teams score
Yes55%
No45%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
8%
1:2
8%
2:0
6%
0:2
6%
1:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Querétaro: 5 wins in 6 games with xG above 1.0 (83% win rate)
- Atlas: 2.8 cards per game (28 yellows, 6 reds in 12 games)
- Querétaro: 47% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (7 of 15)
Lineups
Atlas 4-2-3-1 · Querétaro 4-2-3-1
Atlas
- 12 C. Vargas Gil
- 44 J. Sánchez Purata
- 28 M. Capasso
- 21 R. Schlegel
- 16 M. Valenzuela
- 6 E. Zaldivar Valverde
- 26 A. Rocha González
- 11 L. Lopes
- 58 A. González González
- 10 L. Leite Esteves
- 9 F. Monzón
Querétaro
- 25 G. Allison Revuelta
- 24 B. Duarte
- 13 D. Reyes Rosales
- 2 L. Abascia
- 27 D. Parra Durán
- 4 C. García Prades
- 5 S. Homenchenko Bianchi
- 16 E. Giménez Rojas
- 11 M. Coronel
- 12 P. de Almeida Barbosa
- 9 A. Ávila Vega
Substitutes
- 3 J. Sánchez Ramos
- 4 A. Mora Barraza
- 13 G. Aguirre Ledesma
- 22 A. Sánchez Montes De Oca
- 27 V. Hugo Ríos de Alba
- 192 J. Serrato Zambrano
- 23 S. Hernández Flores
- 203 José Martín
- 5 J. Rodríguez Hernández
- 15 P. Ramírez Barboza
- 7 I. Benito Sánchez
- 8 B. Parra Camacho
- 1 J. Hernández García
- 15 C. Villanueva López
- 23 J. Robles
- 29 W. Madrid
- 26 E. Pérez Reyes
- 20 A. Alcalá Solorio
- 18 ?. Dueñas
- 199 S.Garcia
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