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Liga MX

Atlas - Querétaro

08/29/2026, 11:00 PM

1 : 3
Expected Goals
Atlas
1.3
Total xG
2.6
Querétaro
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

8%

1:2

8%

2:0

6%

0:2

6%
What influences the xG?
ATLQUE

Atlas

Attack weakness (0.6x league average)
-1.03
Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean
+0.78
Defensive weakness (1.7 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
+0.16
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.07
Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 11, 8 places gap)
+0.05

Querétaro

Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+0.22
Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean
-0.19
Standings disadvantage (pos 11 vs 3, 8 places gap)
-0.11
Rising form (1.5 vs 1.2 season average)
+0.09
10% of goal output missing (only 93% available)
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.40
+0.40
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Querétaro: 5 wins in 6 games with xG above 1.0 (83% win rate)

  • 2
    Atlas: 2.8 cards per game (28 yellows, 6 reds in 12 games)

  • 3
    Querétaro: 47% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (7 of 15)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

35%

Draw

30%

Away Win

35%

Goals

Over 1.5

75%

Under 1.5

25%

Over 2.5

49%

Under 2.5

52%

Over 3.5

27%

Under 3.5

73%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

65%

Away or Draw

65%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

55%

No

45%

Key Factors
  • Form trend: Atlas enters the match in strong form with four wins in their last five games (WWLWW)
  • Tactical approach: Atlas averaged 4.2 shots on target per match in recent games
  • Away vulnerability: Querétaro conceded an average of 2.50 goals per away match this season
Risk Factors
  • Tight prediction: The mathematical analysis estimates an extremely close match with a 35% win probability for both teams
  • Tactical threat: Querétaro plays counter-oriented football, averaging only 40% possession in recent games to exploit quick transitions
Overview

Atlas in third place with 12 points host Querétaro in eleventh place with 7 points at Estadio Jalisco

Liga MX match on August 29, 2026, 5:00 PM

A clash between the third-placed team and the mid-table visitors

Form

Atlas shows strong form with four wins and one loss (WWLWW)

Querétaro has two wins, one draw, and two losses (LWWDL)

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Atlas scored an average of 1.17 goals per match this season

Querétaro concedes an average of 1.47 goals per game

The visitors conceded an average of 2.50 goals in away games

Atlas scored an average of 1.17 goals in their home matches

Head-to-Head

Four head-to-head matches on record

Even record with one win for each team and two draws

The last encounter ended in a scoreless 0:0 draw

Key Players

Édgar Zaldívar impresses in midfield with 2 goals and a 7.25 rating

Arturo González contributed 1 goal and 1 assist this season

Manuel Capasso stabilizes the defense with a 7.22 rating and 1 goal scored

Alí Ávila leads the visitors' attack with 3 goals scored

Santiago Homenchenko shines in defense with 2 goals and a 7.37 rating

Bayron Duarte provided 1 assist so far

Goalkeepers

Camilo Vargas starts in goal for Atlas with an average rating of 7.25

The home team has kept 10 clean sheets this season

Guillermo Allison guards the goal for Querétaro with an average rating of 6.82

The visitors have registered 8 clean sheets so far this term

Influences

Atlas benefits from home advantage at Estadio Jalisco with 7 home clean sheets this season

The pitch features a grass surface

The historical goal rate at the stadium averages 2.6 goals per game

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