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Liga MX

Monterrey - Atlético San Luis

08/31/2026, 02:10 AM

1 : 3
Expected Goals
Monterrey
1.7
Total xG
2.8
Atlético San Luis
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

10%

2:0

9%

1:2

6%

3:1

5%
What influences the xG?
MONASL

Monterrey

Attack strength (1.25x league average)
+0.35
Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean
-0.22
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match)
+0.20
Rising form (2.4 vs 1.7 season average)
+0.20
Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
+0.07
Standings advantage (pos 9 vs 16, 7 places gap)
+0.06
Lucas Ocampos on the bench (5 goals, 2 assists)
Diego Rossi on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists)
Orbelín Pineda on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Hugo Cuypers on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Jesús Corona on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
80% of goal output missing (only 10% available)

Atlético San Luis

Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean
+0.35
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.13
Standings disadvantage (pos 16 vs 9, 7 places gap)
-0.08
Weak away record (0.7 vs 1.4 goals/match)
Full strength squad available

League

High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match)
+0.33
+0.33
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Atlético San Luis: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Santos Laguna: 2 goals (86', 90+6')

  • 2
    Monterrey: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 3
    Monterrey: 70% of all goals in the first half (14 of 20, last 12 games)

  • 4
    Atlético San Luis: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (7 points lost)

  • 5
    Monterrey: 30% of all goals between minutes 16-30 (6 of 20)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

49%

Draw

27%

Away Win

23%

Goals

Over 1.5

78%

Under 1.5

22%

Over 2.5

52%

Under 2.5

48%

Over 3.5

30%

Under 3.5

70%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

77%

Away or Draw

51%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

55%

No

45%

Key Factors
  • Severe selection crisis for Monterrey: only 11% of the typical goal threat is active due to the absence of key players Lucas Ocampos, Diego Rossi, Orbelín Pineda, Hugo Cuypers, and Jesús Corona
  • Attacking edge: Monterrey recently averaged 6.6 shots on target with 54.2% possession
  • Leaky defense: Atlético San Luis concede an average of 1.67 goals in away matches and remain winless on the road this season
Risk Factors
  • The massive squad depletion with 5 unlisted starter assets puts Monterrey's favourites label under heavy threat
  • Atlético San Luis's vulnerable away statistics showing 1.67 goals conceded per road match jeopardize the visitors' chances
Overview

Monterrey host Atlético San Luis at Estadio BBVA Bancomer

Liga MX match on August 31, 2026, 2:10 AM

Monterrey sit in 9th place with 9 points while the visitors occupy 16th place with 3 points

Form

Monterrey form: WLWWL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

The home team suffered a 0-2 defeat against León in their last outing

Atlético San Luis form: LDDLD

The guests remain without a win in their last 5 fixtures

Statistics

Monterrey score an average of 1.62 goals and concede 1.10 at home

Atlético San Luis score an average of 1.44 goals and concede 1.67 away

Both teams scored in 20 of Monterrey's 38 total matches this season

Head-to-Head

5 head-to-head matches played in total

Monterrey lead the historical balance with 3 wins compared to 2 for Atlético San Luis

The latest match on April 4, 2026 ended in a 1-2 victory for Atlético San Luis

Key Players

Luca Orellano has registered 1 goal with a season rating of 7.02

Sébastien Salles-Lamonge contributed 1 goal with a high rating of 7.42

David Rodríguez has scored 1 goal with an overall rating of 7.04

Goalkeepers

Luis Cárdenas has played 5 games for Monterrey with an average rating of 6.74

Andrés Sánchez guarded the net in 5 games for Atlético San Luis with a rating of 6.59

Influences

Home advantage for Monterrey on the grass turf of Estadio BBVA Bancomer

The stadium history averages a high total of 3.8 goals per match

The prediction model estimates a home win probability of 49%

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