Match report →
Monterrey – Atlético San Luis1 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Monterrey
1.66
Total xG
2.75
Atlético San Luis
1.09
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Monterrey | Atlético San Luis |
|---|---|---|
| Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean | +0.35 | |
| Attack strength (1.25x league average) | +0.35 | |
| High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match) | +0.33 | +0.33 |
| Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean | −0.22 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.20 | |
| Rising form (2.4 vs 1.7 season average) | +0.20 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.13 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 16 vs 9, 7 places gap) | −0.08 | |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | +0.07 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 9 vs 16, 7 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| Lucas Ocampos on the bench (5 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Diego Rossi on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Orbelín Pineda on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Hugo Cuypers on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Jesús Corona on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 80% of goal output missing (only 10% available) | ||
| Weak away record (0.7 vs 1.4 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Severe selection crisis for Monterrey: only 11% of the typical goal threat is active due to the absence of key players Lucas Ocampos, Diego Rossi, Orbelín Pineda, Hugo Cuypers, and Jesús Corona
- Attacking edge: Monterrey recently averaged 6.6 shots on target with 54.2% possession
- Leaky defense: Atlético San Luis concede an average of 1.67 goals in away matches and remain winless on the road this season
Risks
- The massive squad depletion with 5 unlisted starter assets puts Monterrey's favourites label under heavy threat
- Atlético San Luis's vulnerable away statistics showing 1.67 goals conceded per road match jeopardize the visitors' chances
All probabilities
Result
Monterrey49%
Draw27%
Atlético San Luis23%
Goals
Over 1.578%
Under 1.522%
Over 2.552%
Under 2.548%
Over 3.530%
Under 3.570%
Double chance
Monterrey or draw77%
Atlético San Luis or draw51%
No draw73%
Both teams score
Yes55%
No45%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:1
10%
2:0
9%
1:2
6%
3:1
5%
1:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Atlético San Luis: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Santos Laguna: 2 goals (86', 90+6')
- Monterrey: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Monterrey: 70% of all goals in the first half (14 of 20, last 12 games)
- Atlético San Luis: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (7 points lost)
- Monterrey: 30% of all goals between minutes 16-30 (6 of 20)
Lineups
Monterrey 4-2-3-1 · Atlético San Luis 5-4-1
Monterrey
- 22 L. Cárdenas López
- 14 E. Aguirre Tafolla
- 30 J. Rodriguez
- 13 C. Salcedo Hernández
- 21 L. Reyes Moreno
- 5 F. Ambríz
- 11 I. Fimbres Ochoa
- 10 L. Orellano
- 27 R. De La Rosa González
- 200 O. Gálvez Vidales
- 32 U. Đurđević
Atlético San Luis
- 1 A. Sánchez Rodríguez
- 2 R. Torres Acosta
- 3 R. Alves de Barros
- 14 M. Garcia Alvarez
- 31 E. Águila Castro
- 17 A. Duarte da Silva
- 11 D. Rodríguez Uribe
- 13 J. Caicedo Caicedo
- 21 Ó. Macías Mora
- 10 S. Salles Lamonge
- 22 R. Llorente Sanz
Substitutes
- 1 E. Andrada
- 25 O. Pineda Alvarado
- 9 D. Rossi Marachlian
- 99 H. Cuypers
- 2 R. Chávez Soto
- 8 Ó. Torres Muñoz
- 17 J. Corona Ruíz
- 19 D. Aceves Patiño
- 18 C. Garza Cantu
- 203 A. De Nigris González
- 7 B. Galdames Millán
- 18 A. Cruz Sánchez
- 8 L. Nájera Reyna
- 26 S. Pérez Bouquet Pérez
- 5 R. Meraz Bernal
- 25 M. Lajud Bojalil
- 20 L. Flores
- 30 B. Galindo Cruz
- 16 L. Esteves Souza
- 19 S. Muñóz Robles
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →