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Pumas UNAM – León3 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Pumas UNAM
1.13
Total xG
2.36
León
1.22
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Pumas UNAM | León |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.63x league average) | −0.71 | |
| Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.41 | |
| Attack weakness (0.79x league average) | −0.41 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.41 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.27 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.03 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | +0.02 | |
| Díber Cambindo on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) |
Key factors
- León averaged 5.0 shots on target in recent matches
- Pumas UNAM scored more frequently recently with an average of 2.0 goals compared to their season average of 1.7
- Home history: Pumas UNAM remains undefeated in their last 4 direct matches against León
Risks
- Away defensive struggles: León concedes an average of 4.11 goals on the road
- Limited data availability for weather conditions
All probabilities
Result
Pumas UNAM32%
Draw31%
León37%
Double chance
Pumas UNAM or draw63%
León or draw68%
No draw69%
Goals
Over 1.570%
Under 1.530%
Over 2.542%
Under 2.558%
Over 3.521%
Under 3.579%
Both teams score
Yes50%
No50%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
11%
0:1
10%
1:0
9%
1:2
8%
3:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- León: 6 of 19 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Pumas UNAM with Uriel Antuna starting: 1.7 goals/game, without him: 0.8 (14/5 games, last 30)
- León: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- Pumas UNAM: 6 of 17 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
Lineups
Pumas UNAM 3-4-2-1 · León 4-1-4-1
Pumas UNAM
- 1 K. Navas Gamboa
- 6 N. da Silva
- 5 R. Duarte Sánchez
- 12 C. Calderón Del Real
- 7 R. López Quiñones
- 18 V. Arteaga Camarena
- 45 P. Vite Uca
- 14 L. Herrera
- 21 C. Antuna Romero
- 31 R. Morales
- 23 O. Vieira dos Santos Júnior
León
- 23 O. García
- 7 I. Moreno Füguemann
- 14 J. Romaña Espitia
- 25 P. Bellón Saracho
- 185 C. Mora Espinoza
- 29 J. Rodríguez Rebollar
- 8 J. Domínguez Chonteco
- 16 J. Cortizo de la Piedra
- 13 D. Arcila
- 11 I. Díaz De León
- 19 J. Alvarado Pérez
Substitutes
- 8 A. Carrasquilla Alcázar
- 19 J. Rivas Gutiérrez
- 15 I. Luna López
- 13 P. Monroy Reyes
- 20 S. Trigos Nava
- 30 S. López López
- 34 ?. Azuaje García
- 22 A. Medina Camacho
- 35 P. Lara Nevarez
- 202 J. Castillejos
- 5 S. Vegas Orellana
- 20 R. Echeverría Sáez
- 15 S. Fierro González
- 4 B. Colula Alarcón
- 12 J. González Vela-Alvizu
- 6 F. Beltrán Cruz
- 26 S. Reyes Chávez
- 27 D. Cambindo Abonia
- 33 A. Villegas
- 203 J. Aldair Lara Sánchez
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