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Liga MX

Pumas UNAM - León

09/11/2026, 03:05 AM

3 : 1
Expected Goals
Pumas UNAM
1.1
Total xG
2.4
León
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

11%

0:1

10%

1:0

9%

1:2

8%
What influences the xG?
PULEÓ

Pumas UNAM

Attack weakness (0.63x league average)
-0.71
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
+0.41
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.03

León

Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+0.41
Attack weakness (0.79x league average)
-0.41
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
+0.27
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
+0.02
Díber Cambindo on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    León: 6 of 19 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)

  • 2
    Pumas UNAM with Uriel Antuna starting: 1.7 goals/game, without him: 0.8 (14/5 games, last 30)

  • 3
    León: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)

  • 4
    Pumas UNAM: 6 of 17 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

32%

Draw

31%

Away Win

37%

Goals

Over 1.5

70%

Under 1.5

30%

Over 2.5

42%

Under 2.5

58%

Over 3.5

21%

Under 3.5

79%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

63%

Away or Draw

68%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

50%

No

50%

Key Factors
  • León averaged 5.0 shots on target in recent matches
  • Pumas UNAM scored more frequently recently with an average of 2.0 goals compared to their season average of 1.7
  • Home history: Pumas UNAM remains undefeated in their last 4 direct matches against León
Risk Factors
  • Away defensive struggles: León concedes an average of 4.11 goals on the road
  • Limited data availability for weather conditions
Overview

Pumas UNAM (12th place, 8 points) host León (8th place, 10 points)

Liga MX match on September 11, 2026, 3:05 AM

Mid-table clash at the Estadio Olímpico de Universitario

Form

Pumas UNAM's form is WWDDL with a loss in their last match

León's form is LWWWD with a draw in their last match

León secured 3 wins in their last 5 games

Statistics

Pumas UNAM averages 1.63 goals scored and 1.32 goals conceded per game

León averages 1.06 goals scored and 1.85 goals conceded per game

León concedes a high average of 4.11 goals in away games

Head-to-Head

A total of 4 head-to-head matches played

Pumas UNAM has 2 wins, León has 0 wins, alongside 2 draws

The last match ended in a 1:1 draw on January 18, 2026

Key Players

Robert Morales stands out with a 7.22 rating and 3 assists

Juninho has scored 3 goals this season with a 7.01 rating

Daniel Arcila leads the visitors with 3 goals and a 7.15 rating

Goalkeepers

Keylor Navas starts for Pumas UNAM with a 6.56 rating and 12 clean sheets for the team

Óscar García plays for León with a strong 7.19 rating and 6 clean sheets for the team

Both keepers will aim to anchor their respective backlines

Influences

The match will be played on grass at the Estadio Olímpico de Universitario

Matches at this venue average 1.8 goals per game

Pumas UNAM scores an average of 1.67 goals per home game

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