Match report →
Tigres UANL – Necaxa1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Tigres UANL
1.49
Total xG
2.72
Necaxa
1.23
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Tigres UANL | Necaxa |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.76x league average) | −0.76 | |
| Small sample (2 matches), regression to mean | +0.63 | |
| High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match) | +0.35 | +0.35 |
| Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.20 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.17 | |
| Small sample (2 matches), regression to mean | +0.11 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| 26% of goal output missing (only 90% available) |
Key factors
- Defensive home strength vs weak away defense: Tigres concede only 0.59 goals at home while Necaxa concede an average of 2.35 goals per away match
- Tactical possession dominance: Tigres averaged 55.2% possession in recent matches
- Historical advantage: Tigres UANL remain undefeated in the last 5 head-to-head meetings against Necaxa
Risks
- Struggling home offense: Tigres average 1.8 goals recently compared to their season average of 2.0
- Necaxa's away weakness: The visitors concede an average of 2.35 goals per away game
All probabilities
Result
Tigres UANL42%
Draw29%
Necaxa30%
Double chance
Tigres UANL or draw70%
Necaxa or draw58%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.577%
Under 1.523%
Over 2.551%
Under 2.549%
Over 3.529%
Under 3.571%
Both teams score
Yes56%
No44%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
9%
1:2
7%
2:0
7%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Tigres UANL: 7 of 16 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Necaxa: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Necaxa: 2.8 cards per game (27 yellows, 6 reds in 12 games)
- Necaxa: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (7 of 12 total)
Lineups
Tigres UANL 4-4-2 · Necaxa 3-4-2-1
Tigres UANL
- 1 N. Guzmán
- 14 J. Garza García
- 28 J. Pereira Silva
- 15 A. Franco
- 26 F. Ordóñez Delgado
- 21 R. Monreal Morales
- 34 H. Koifman
- 23 R. Zanre Zwarg
- 16 D. Lainez Leyva
- 17 R. Aguirre Soto
- 11 J. Brunetta
Necaxa
- 12 L. Jiménez González
- 33 R. Martínez Ruiz
- 5 K. Marques Naves
- 3 A. Oliveros Cano
- 13 O. de Jesús González Ojeda
- 16 P. Pedraza Reyna
- 8 L. Faravelli
- 14 M. Zaleta
- 21 M. Espíndola
- 10 J. Ruiz
- 9 J. Carranza
Substitutes
- 6 J. Vigón Cham
- 25 C. Rodríguez Rangel
- 30 D. Sánchez Guevara
- 19 M. Laínez Leyva
- 33 R. Guerrero Ramirez
- 5 C. Araújo Vilches
- 205 A. de María y Campos Moreno
- 198 I.Galván
- 200 D. Ramirez
- 184 I. Aceves Flores
- 4 A. Peña López
- 7 K. Ante Rosero
- 17 R. Cortéz Pineda
- 99 Miguel Rodriguez
- 6 D. Leyva
- 20 F. Méndez Lara
- 1 C. Andrade Martín
- 11 J. Torres Patiño
- 90 J. Valencia Longa
- 207 O. Domínguez
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →