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Liga MX

Tigres UANL - Necaxa

09/06/2026, 01:00 AM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Tigres UANL
1.5
Total xG
2.7
Necaxa
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

1:2

7%

2:0

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
TUNEC

Tigres UANL

Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.20
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.17
Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean
+0.11
26% of goal output missing (only 90% available)

Necaxa

Attack weakness (0.76x league average)
-0.76
Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean
+0.63
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.04

League

High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match)
+0.35
+0.35
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Tigres UANL: 7 of 16 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)

  • 2
    Necaxa: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 3
    Necaxa: 2.8 cards per game (27 yellows, 6 reds in 12 games)

  • 4
    Necaxa: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (7 of 12 total)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

42%

Draw

29%

Away Win

30%

Goals

Over 1.5

77%

Under 1.5

23%

Over 2.5

51%

Under 2.5

49%

Over 3.5

29%

Under 3.5

71%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

70%

Away or Draw

58%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

56%

No

44%

Key Factors
  • Defensive home strength vs weak away defense: Tigres concede only 0.59 goals at home while Necaxa concede an average of 2.35 goals per away match
  • Tactical possession dominance: Tigres averaged 55.2% possession in recent matches
  • Historical advantage: Tigres UANL remain undefeated in the last 5 head-to-head meetings against Necaxa
Risk Factors
  • Struggling home offense: Tigres average 1.8 goals recently compared to their season average of 2.0
  • Necaxa's away weakness: The visitors concede an average of 2.35 goals per away game
Overview

Tigres UANL host Necaxa at the Estadio Universitario de Nuevo León

Liga MX match on September 6, 2026, 2:00 AM

Tigres UANL are in 16th place with 5 points

Necaxa currently sit in 13th place with 7 points

Both teams are looking to escape the lower section of the table

Form

Tigres UANL form is DLLWD with 1 win and 2 draws in their last 5 matches

Necaxa form is WLLDL with 1 win and 1 draw

Tigres drew 0-0 away at Santos Laguna in their last match

Necaxa suffered a 1-3 home defeat against Cruz Azul in their last outing

Statistics

Tigres UANL average 1.79 goals scored and 1.05 goals conceded overall

Necaxa average 1.26 goals scored and 1.68 goals conceded overall

Tigres show strong defensive values at home conceding only 0.59 goals per match

Necaxa struggle on the road conceding an average of 2.35 goals per away game

Head-to-Head

There have been 5 head-to-head matches between these teams

Tigres UANL registered 2 home wins while Necaxa are winless with 3 draws

The total goal score stands at 10-7 in favor of Tigres

Their last match on April 18, 2026 ended in a 1-1 draw

Key Players

Juan Brunetta is key in Tigres' midfield with 3 goals and 3 assists

Rodrigo Aguirre contributed 2 goals and 1 assist in attack for the hosts

Julián Carranza leads Necaxa's offense with 4 goals and 1 assist

Goalkeepers

Nahuel Guzmán starts in goal for Tigres and has kept 14 clean sheets this season

Luis Jiménez represents Necaxa with 4 clean sheets this campaign

Influences

Home advantage favors Tigres who concede only 0.59 goals per game on home soil

The Estadio Universitario de Nuevo León has averaged 4.2 goals per game historically

The game will be played on a grass pitch

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