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Liga MX

Juárez - Pachuca

09/05/2026, 03:00 AM

0 : 2
Expected Goals
Juárez
1.2
Total xG
2.6
Pachuca
1.4
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:2

9%

2:1

8%

0:2

7%

2:0

6%
What influences the xG?
JUÁPAC

Juárez

Defensive weakness (2 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
+0.46
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.24
Declining form (0.6 vs 1.4 season average)
-0.24
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
+0.14

Pachuca

Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.17
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.12
Declining form (1 vs 1.4 season average)
-0.12
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
-0.08
Weak away record (1 vs 1.4 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.37
+0.37
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Pachuca: 3.1 cards per game (28 yellows, 6 reds in 11 games)

  • 2
    Juárez: opponent scores first in 9 of 12 games (75%)

  • 3
    Juárez: 55% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (6 of 11)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

32%

Draw

29%

Away Win

39%

Goals

Over 1.5

75%

Under 1.5

25%

Over 2.5

48%

Under 2.5

52%

Over 3.5

27%

Under 3.5

73%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

61%

Away or Draw

68%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

55%

No

45%

Key Factors
  • Pachuca's goalscorer advantage: Salomón Rondón leads the attack with 6 goals this season
  • Severe form crisis for Juárez: The home team lost their last 5 matches and recently conceded an average of 3.6 goals per game
  • Juárez's offensive inefficiency: The hosts averaged only 1.8 shots on target per match in recent games
Risk Factors
  • Pachuca's stalling goal production: The visitors recently averaged only 1.0 goals per game compared to their season average of 1.4
  • Pachuca's away vulnerability: The team concedes an average of 1.32 goals per away game while scoring the same amount
  • Juárez's historical home advantage in head-to-head: Juárez remained dominant at home with 2 wins and 2 draws from the last 5 meetings
Overview

Juárez hosts Pachuca at the Estadio Olímpico Benito Juárez

Liga MX match on September 5, 2026, 3:00 AM

Bottom-of-the-table clash between 18th-placed Juárez (0 points) and 15th-placed Pachuca (5 points)

Form

Juárez is in a deep crisis with form LLLLL

Pachuca is also winless in their last five games with form LLLDD

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Pachuca managed to secure two consecutive draws recently

Statistics

Juárez conceded an average of 1.74 goals per match this season

Pachuca scored 1.35 goals and conceded 1.1 goals on average per game

Juárez averages 1.5 goals scored and 1.36 goals conceded in home matches

Head-to-Head

5 total head-to-head matches between the teams

Juárez with 2 wins, Pachuca with 1 win, and 2 draws

The last match ended in a 2-0 victory for Pachuca

Key Players

Óscar Estupiñán scored 2 goals for Juárez this season

José Luis Rodríguez contributed 1 goal and 2 assists for the home side

Salomón Rondón is Pachuca's top scorer with 6 goals this season

Goalkeepers

Sebastián Jurado guards the goal for Juárez with 3 clean sheets this season

Carlos Agustín Moreno Luna plays for Pachuca and kept 10 clean sheets

Pachuca's goalkeeper has also scored 1 goal this season

Influences

The match will be played on grass at the Estadio Olímpico Benito Juárez

The venue averages 3.2 total goals per match

Both teams scored in 80% of the games at this stadium

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