Match report →
Juárez – Pachuca0 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Juárez
1.24
Total xG
2.61
Pachuca
1.38
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Juárez | Pachuca |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive weakness (2 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | +0.46 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.37 | +0.37 |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.24 | |
| Declining form (0.6 vs 1.4 season average) | −0.24 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.17 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.14 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.12 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.4 season average) | −0.12 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | −0.08 | |
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.4 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Pachuca's goalscorer advantage: Salomón Rondón leads the attack with 6 goals this season
- Severe form crisis for Juárez: The home team lost their last 5 matches and recently conceded an average of 3.6 goals per game
- Juárez's offensive inefficiency: The hosts averaged only 1.8 shots on target per match in recent games
Risks
- Pachuca's stalling goal production: The visitors recently averaged only 1.0 goals per game compared to their season average of 1.4
- Pachuca's away vulnerability: The team concedes an average of 1.32 goals per away game while scoring the same amount
- Juárez's historical home advantage in head-to-head: Juárez remained dominant at home with 2 wins and 2 draws from the last 5 meetings
All probabilities
Result
Juárez32%
Draw29%
Pachuca39%
Double chance
Juárez or draw61%
Pachuca or draw68%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.575%
Under 1.525%
Over 2.548%
Under 2.552%
Over 3.527%
Under 3.573%
Both teams score
Yes55%
No45%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:2
9%
2:1
8%
0:2
7%
2:0
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Pachuca: 3.1 cards per game (28 yellows, 6 reds in 11 games)
- Juárez: opponent scores first in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Juárez: 55% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (6 of 11)
Lineups
Juárez 4-2-3-1 · Pachuca 4-2-3-1
Juárez
- 1 S. Jurado Roca
- 20 J. Aquino Carmona
- 3 J. Murillo Largacha
- 2 G. Sepúlveda López
- 4 M. Mayorga Almaráz
- 14 E. López Castro
- 10 Í. Torres Ramírez
- 13 R. Dourado Cunha
- 5 D. García Bojórquez
- 11 J. Rodríguez Francis
- 19 O. Estupiñán Vallesilla
Pachuca
- 25 C. Moreno
- 14 C. Sánchez Nava
- 4 E. dos Santos Bauermann
- 2 S. Barreto
- 15 F. Venegas Moreno
- 30 S. Rodriguez
- 16 C. Rivera Cuéllar
- 29 R. Nunes do Nascimento
- 10 E. Montiel
- 11 O. Idrissi
- 23 J. Rondón Giménez
Substitutes
- 6 Monchu
- 8 G. Castilho Carvalho
- 9 M. de Souza Silva
- 21 R. Oliveira António
- 24 B. Díaz Jáuregui
- 33 F. Nevarez Pulgarin
- 23 Ó. Ortega Gatica
- 16 J. Sigala García
- 7 R. Fulgencio Román
- 17 L. Martínez Dupuy
- 9 A. Alcaraz Torales
- 7 R. Pizarro Thomas
- 26 A. Bautista Gutiérrez
- 31 J. Eulogio Téllez
- 6 M. Isaís
- 21 J. Vallejo
- 187 G. Álvarez Montiel
- 32 P. Budib Peniche
- 28 A. Arroyo Romero
- 206 T. Hernández
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