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Liga MX

Atlas - Atlante

09/06/2026, 03:00 AM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Atlas
1.5
Total xG
2.7
Atlante
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

1:2

8%

2:0

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
ATLATL

Atlas

Defensive weakness (1.7 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
+0.25
Attack weakness (0.68x league average)
-0.14
Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 15, 11 places gap)
+0.08
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
+0.06
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.04
Édgar Zaldívar not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists)
Duk on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
24% of goal output missing (only 60% available)

Atlante

Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
-0.42
Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+0.21
Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 4, 11 places gap)
-0.16
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.06

League

High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match)
+0.35
+0.35
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Atlante: 6 of 8 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 6 games)

  • 2
    Atlas: 2.7 cards per game (26 yellows, 6 reds in 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

40%

Draw

29%

Away Win

32%

Goals

Over 1.5

77%

Under 1.5

23%

Over 2.5

52%

Under 2.5

48%

Over 3.5

30%

Under 3.5

70%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

68%

Away or Draw

60%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

57%

No

43%

Key Factors
  • Tactical efficiency: Atlante averaged 4.8 shots on target in recent matches despite having only 40.2% average possession
  • Table advantage: Atlas starts in 4th place with 12 points, significantly better positioned than Atlante in 15th place with 6 points
  • Mathematical trend: The model estimates a 68% probability for a home win or draw
Risk Factors
  • Édgar ZaldĂ­var and Duk are missing for Atlas, leaving only 60% of the usual goal threat available in the squad
  • Declining offensive output for Atlas, averaging just 1.2 goals recently compared to their season average of 1.3
  • Away defensive vulnerability for Atlante, conceding an average of 1.50 goals per away match
Overview

Atlas (4th place, 12 points) host Atlante (15th place, 6 points) at the Estadio Jalisco

Liga MX match on September 6, 2026, 5:00 AM

The hosts head into this clash as the favored side

Form

Atlas with a form of WLWWL in recent matches

The home team recorded 3 wins and 2 losses

Last result was a loss

Atlante shows a form of DWDLD

The visitors secured 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss

Statistics

Atlas scores an average of 1.17 goals and concedes 1.58 goals this season

At home, they average 1.17 goals scored and 1.09 goals conceded

Atlante scores an average of 1.00 goal and concedes 1.33 goals

In away games, Atlante concedes an average of 1.50 goals

Matches at this venue average 3.4 goals per game

Key Players

Arturo GonzĂĄlez with an average rating of 7.11, scoring 1 goal and providing 1 assist

Luís André Leite Esteves has 1 goal with a rating of 6.71

Manuel Capasso anchors the lineup with a rating of 7.02 and 1 goal scored

Jhojan Julio stands out with 1 goal, 2 assists, and a rating of 7.05

Eugenio Pizzuto has already scored 2 goals with a rating of 6.91

L. Calzadilla contributed 1 goal and 1 assist with a rating of 7.00

Goalkeepers

Camilo Vargas is in goal for Atlas with a rating of 7.01

Atlas has recorded 10 clean sheets overall this season

Óscar JimĂ©nez is in goal for Atlante with a rating of 7.29

Atlante has recorded 1 clean sheet so far

Influences

The match will be played at the Estadio Jalisco on grass

This venue averages high-scoring games with 3.4 goals per match

Both teams scored in 80% of the games here

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