Match report →
Atlas – Atlante1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Atlas
1.45
Total xG
2.74
Atlante
1.29
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Atlas | Atlante |
|---|---|---|
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | −0.42 | |
| High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match) | +0.35 | +0.35 |
| Defensive weakness (1.7 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | +0.25 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.21 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 4, 11 places gap) | −0.16 | |
| Attack weakness (0.68x league average) | −0.14 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 15, 11 places gap) | +0.08 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.06 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.06 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| Édgar Zaldívar not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Duk on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 24% of goal output missing (only 60% available) |
Key factors
- Tactical efficiency: Atlante averaged 4.8 shots on target in recent matches despite having only 40.2% average possession
- Table advantage: Atlas starts in 4th place with 12 points, significantly better positioned than Atlante in 15th place with 6 points
- Mathematical trend: The model estimates a 68% probability for a home win or draw
Risks
- Édgar Zaldívar and Duk are missing for Atlas, leaving only 60% of the usual goal threat available in the squad
- Declining offensive output for Atlas, averaging just 1.2 goals recently compared to their season average of 1.3
- Away defensive vulnerability for Atlante, conceding an average of 1.50 goals per away match
All probabilities
Result
Atlas40%
Draw29%
Atlante32%
Double chance
Atlas or draw68%
Atlante or draw60%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.577%
Under 1.523%
Over 2.552%
Under 2.548%
Over 3.530%
Under 3.570%
Both teams score
Yes57%
No43%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:0
7%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Atlante: 6 of 8 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 6 games)
- Atlas: 2.7 cards per game (26 yellows, 6 reds in 12 games)
Lineups
Atlas 5-3-2 · Atlante 5-3-2
Atlas
- 12 C. Vargas Gil
- 3 J. Sánchez Ramos
- 19 A. Frías
- 28 M. Capasso
- 21 R. Schlegel
- 5 J. Rodríguez Hernández
- 58 A. González González
- 26 A. Rocha González
- 10 L. Leite Esteves
- 9 F. Monzón
- 8 R. Mmaee Nwambeben Kabir
Atlante
- 1 Ó. Jiménez Fabela
- 29 W. Portales
- 14 C. Alfaro
- 4 E. Tercero Méndez
- 44 A. Quiroz
- 27 A. Escobar Díaz
- 30 M. Sarrafiore
- 8 E. Pizzuto Puga
- 19 L. Calzadilla Santillán
- 7 J. Julio Palacios
- 9 L. Puente Prado
Substitutes
- 11 L. Lopes
- 16 M. Valenzuela
- 4 A. Mora Barraza
- 13 G. Aguirre Ledesma
- 22 A. Sánchez Montes De Oca
- 27 V. Hugo Ríos de Alba
- 192 J. Serrato Zambrano
- 23 S. Hernández Flores
- 203 José Martín
- 15 P. Ramírez Barboza
- 25 M. Fernández Figueira
- 37 W. Clar Fritz
- 11 J. Moxica Chapa
- 33 J. García Bonnet
- 32 D. Bagüí Tobar
- 20 G. Adame
- 6 N. Carrera
- 15 J. Charcopa Cabezas
- 16 J. González
- 18 C. Bermúdez Gutiérrez
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