Premier League
Liverpool - Tottenham Hotspur
03/15/2026, 04:30 PM
Expected Goals
2.6
3.6
1.0
2:1
9%3:1
8%3:0
8%4:1
5%4:0
5%What influences the xG?
Liverpool
Tottenham Hotspur
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
70%
Draw
18%
Away Win
12%
Goals
Over 1.5
88%
Under 1.5
12%
Over 2.5
70%
Under 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
48%
Under 3.5
52%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
88%
Away or Draw
30%
No Draw
82%
Both Score
Yes
60%
No
40%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a high home win probability of 70% for Liverpool
- Tottenham's alarming form with 5 consecutive losses indicates a weakening
- Liverpool's home strength and historical dominance with 4 wins in the last 5 head-to-head matches underpin their favorite role
Risk Factors
- Liverpool's offense is weakened by the absence of key players like Hugo EkitikƩ and Mohamed Salah, as only 71% of the usual starting XI's goal threat is available
- Tottenham's lack of offensive punch is evident with an average of only 3.4 shots on target per game
- The visitors conceded an average of 3.2 goals in recent games, representing a significantly negative form trend
Overview
Liverpool (6th place, 48 points) hosts Tottenham Hotspur (16th place, 29 points) at Anfield. The Premier League match takes place on March 15, 2026, 5:30 PM. Liverpool aims to improve its position in the top third of the table, while Tottenham tries to escape the lower half of the table.
Form
Liverpool's form in their last five matches (WWLWL) shows 3 wins and 2 losses. Their last game ended in a loss. Tottenham Hotspur, on the other hand, records a streak of 5 losses in their last five matches (LLLLL). Their last game was also a loss. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss.
Statistics
Liverpool scores an average of 1.66 goals per game and concedes 1.34 goals. At home, Liverpool scores 1.62 goals and concedes 1 goal per home game. Tottenham Hotspur scores an average of 1.34 goals per game and concedes 1.59 goals. Away from home, Tottenham scores 1.31 goals and also concedes 1.31 goals per away game. Liverpool has kept 9 clean sheets, Tottenham 7 clean sheets. Over 2.5 goals were scored in 18 of Liverpool's matches and 20 of Tottenham's matches. Anfield is characterized by high-scoring games, with an average of 4.8 goals per game, with both teams scoring in 3 out of 5 games and over 2.5 goals occurring in all 5 games.
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Liverpool dominated the encounters. Liverpool won 4 games, Tottenham Hotspur won 1 game, and there were no draws. The goal difference is 17:6 in favor of Liverpool. The last meeting on December 20, 2025, saw Liverpool win away with a 2:1 score.
Key Players
For Liverpool, Cody Gakpo (6 goals, 3 assists, average rating 7.13), Dominik Szoboszlai (4 goals, 3 assists, average rating 7.32), and Ryan Gravenberch (4 goals, 3 assists, average rating 7.09) could be crucial. For Tottenham, Richarlison (8 goals, 4 assists, average rating 6.95), Dominic Solanke (3 goals, 0 assists, average rating 6.8), and Mathys Tel (3 goals, 0 assists, average rating 6.71) are important attacking players.
Goalkeepers
Liverpool's goalkeeper is Alisson, who has made 24 appearances this season. Tottenham Hotspur's goalkeeper is Guglielmo Vicario, who has played in 29 season matches. Liverpool recorded 9 clean sheets, Tottenham Hotspur 7 clean sheets.
Influences
Liverpool scores an average of 1.62 goals at home and concedes 1 goal per game. For Tottenham Hotspur, the away average is 1.31 goals scored and 1.31 goals conceded. Anfield has proven to be a very high-scoring venue in the last 5 games, with an average of 4.8 goals per game. All 5 of these games ended with over 2.5 goals.