Match report →
América – Tijuana1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
América
1.73
Total xG
2.78
Tijuana
1.05
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | América | Tijuana |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.50 | +0.50 |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | +0.41 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.2 goals/match) | +0.38 | |
| Rising form (3.2 vs 1.9 season average) | +0.38 | |
| Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −0.29 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.7 season average) | +0.17 | |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | −0.11 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 8 vs 1, 7 places gap) | −0.08 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 8, 7 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.03 | |
| Henry Martin on the bench (8 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Brian Rodríguez on the bench (5 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Érick Sánchez on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Carlos Álvarez on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Álex Zendejas not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 61% of goal output missing (only 35% available) | ||
| Ignacio Rivero on the bench (4 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Adonis Preciado on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Mourad El Ghezouani on the bench (4 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Alan Vega on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Francisco González on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 52% of goal output missing (only 48% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.3 vs 1.7 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Table: América ranks 1st in the league with 27 points from 13 games, Tijuana is 8th with 20 points
- Home/Away: América averages 2 goals scored per home game in the league this season, Tijuana concedes 2 per away game
- Shots on target: América averaged 8.4 shots on target per game in their last 5 matches, Tijuana 5.2
Risks
- Head-to-head: 4 of the 5 previous meetings between these teams ended in a draw
- Defence: América conceded an average of 2 goals per game in their last 5 matches
All probabilities
Result
América52%
Draw27%
Tijuana22%
Double chance
América or draw78%
Tijuana or draw48%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.578%
Under 1.522%
Over 2.553%
Under 2.547%
Over 3.530%
Under 3.570%
Both teams score
Yes55%
No45%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.73 : 1.05, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
10%
2:0
9%
1:2
6%
3:1
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- América: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Tijuana: first goal in 7 of 10 games (70%)
Lineups
América 4-2-3-1 · Tijuana 5-4-1
América
- 30 R. Cota Robles
- 34 D. Espinoza Acosta
- 29 R. Del Castillo
- 32 M. Vázquez García
- 26 C. Borja González
- 6 E. Cerrillo
- 13 A. Cervantes Martín del Campo
- 12 I. Violante Romero
- 20 A. Gutiérrez Torres
- 206 Derek Jiménez
- 93 M. Borja Hernández
Tijuana
- 2 J. Rodríguez Romero
- 3 R. Fernández Inzunza
- 12 J. Porozo Vernaza
- 4 U. Bilbao Arteta
- 6 J. Gómez Molina
- 33 P. Ortíz
- 31 J. Padilla Sandoval
- 34 F. Boya
- 20 ?. Zapata Praga
- 202 J. González Cera
- 13 E. Alves de Paula
Substitutes
- 8 C. Álvarez Rivera
- 22 ?. Perea Abonce
- 3 I. Reyes Romero
- 28 E. Sánchez Ocegueda
- 5 K. Álvarez Campos
- 2 E. Lara Contreras
- 7 P. Rodríguez Bravo
- 21 F. Tapia Méndez
- 9 H. Martín Mex
- 217 Í. da Conceição
- 9 M. Daoudi El Ghezouani
- 10 G. Mora Zambrano
- 15 J. Rivero Segade
- 7 A. Preciado Quintero
- 16 J. Vega Grijalva
- 17 R. Árciga Zárate
- 18 A. Mejía Montoya
- 29 J. Hernández Soriano
- 19 D. Abreu Firenze
- 11 F. González
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