Match report →
Cruz Azul – Santos Laguna1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Cruz Azul
1.77
Total xG
2.86
Santos Laguna
1.09
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Cruz Azul | Santos Laguna |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.29x league average) | +0.74 | |
| Attack weakness (0.67x league average) | −0.54 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | −0.48 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.33 | |
| High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match) | +0.33 | +0.33 |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match) | −0.23 | |
| Declining form (0.5 vs 1.2 season average) | −0.20 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.09 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 17 vs 10, 7 places gap) | −0.08 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 10 vs 17, 7 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| José Paradela on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 44% of goal output missing (only 52% available) |
Key factors
- CRITICAL: Santos Laguna is playing with only 53% of their usual starting XI strength
- Cruz Azul averaged a strong 6.4 shots on target per match in recent games
- The mathematical model predicts a home win with a 52% probability
Risks
- Santos Laguna's goal production is stagnant, averaging only 0.5 goals in recent matches
- Santos Laguna struggles defensively on the road, conceding 3.14 goals per away game
All probabilities
Result
Cruz Azul52%
Draw26%
Santos Laguna22%
Double chance
Cruz Azul or draw78%
Santos Laguna or draw48%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.579%
Under 1.521%
Over 2.554%
Under 2.546%
Over 3.532%
Under 3.568%
Both teams score
Yes56%
No44%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
2:1
10%
2:0
9%
1:2
6%
3:1
6%
1:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Cruz Azul: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
Lineups
Cruz Azul 4-1-4-1 · Santos Laguna 5-4-1
Cruz Azul
- 23 K. Mier Robles
- 55 Rogelio González
- 4 W. Ditta Pérez
- 5 J. Orozco Chiquete
- 3 O. Campos Chagoya
- 17 A. García Moreno
- 19 C. Rodríguez Gómez
- 16 Á. Márquez Castañeda
- 8 A. Palavecino Lamela
- 18 L. Romero
- 7 N. Ibáñez
Santos Laguna
- 1 C. Acevedo López
- 3 M. Cuevas
- 28 J. Pérez Sánchez
- 25 F. Sanchez
- 14 E. Orona Zavala
- 193 L. Gómez Bernal
- 77 K. Palacios Salazar
- 8 S. Mariscal Murra
- 5 A. López Vargas
- 7 D. Gonzalez Alcaraz
- 10 E. Bullaude
Substitutes
- 6 É. Lira Méndez
- 1 A. Gudiño Portillo
- 20 J. Paradela
- 33 G. Piovi
- 12 A. Montes Castro
- 2 A. Mozo Rodríguez
- 21 G. Fernández Leites
- 22 J. Rodarte Barragán
- 10 A. Montaño
- 11 O. Ebere
- 18 F. Pardo
- 19 E. Aguirre Lara
- 20 E. Lozano Solana
- 4 J. Abella Fanjul
- 6 J. Güemez López
- 17 E. Echeverría Mata
- 21 F. Villalba Rodrigo
- 24 D. Medina Vázquez
- 26 R. Sordo
- 33 H. Holguín
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