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Liga MX

Cruz Azul - Santos Laguna

09/06/2026, 11:00 PM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Cruz Azul
1.8
Total xG
2.9
Santos Laguna
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

2:1

10%

2:0

9%

1:2

6%

3:1

6%
What influences the xG?
CASL

Cruz Azul

Attack strength (1.29x league average)
+0.74
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
-0.48
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.09
Standings advantage (pos 10 vs 17, 7 places gap)
+0.06
José Paradela on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)

Santos Laguna

Attack weakness (0.67x league average)
-0.54
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
+0.33
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match)
-0.23
Declining form (0.5 vs 1.2 season average)
-0.20
Standings disadvantage (pos 17 vs 10, 7 places gap)
-0.08
44% of goal output missing (only 52% available)

League

High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match)
+0.33
+0.33
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Cruz Azul: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

52%

Draw

26%

Away Win

22%

Goals

Over 1.5

79%

Under 1.5

21%

Over 2.5

54%

Under 2.5

46%

Over 3.5

32%

Under 3.5

68%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

78%

Away or Draw

48%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

56%

No

44%

Key Factors
  • CRITICAL: Santos Laguna is playing with only 53% of their usual starting XI strength
  • Cruz Azul averaged a strong 6.4 shots on target per match in recent games
  • The mathematical model predicts a home win with a 52% probability
Risk Factors
  • Santos Laguna's goal production is stagnant, averaging only 0.5 goals in recent matches
  • Santos Laguna struggles defensively on the road, conceding 3.14 goals per away game
Overview

Cruz Azul (10th place, 9 points) host Santos Laguna (17th place, 1 point)

Match on September 6, 2026, 11:00 PM at the Estadio Cuauhtémoc

The home side enters this Liga MX clash as the clear favorite

Form

Cruz Azul shows a recent form of WLLLW

Santos Laguna is still searching for their first win of the season with a form of LLLLD

The visitors have only earned one point from their last 5 matches

Statistics

Santos Laguna concedes an average of 3.14 goals per away game this season

Cruz Azul scores 1.75 goals per home match on average

Cruz Azul has kept 8 clean sheets in 24 home matches

Head-to-Head

Cruz Azul won all of the last 4 head-to-head matches

The goal difference stands at 8:3 in favor of the home side

The last encounter ended in a 2:1 victory for Cruz Azul

Key Players

Carlos RodrĂ­guez has registered 4 assists so far this season

Jeremy MĂĄrquez stands out with 3 goals and an average rating of 7.31

Not in squad for Cruz Azul is José Paradela

Goalkeepers

Carlos Acevedo starts for Santos Laguna boasting a solid seasonal rating of 7.21

Kevin Mier represents Cruz Azul with an average rating of 6.77

Santos Laguna has recorded 6 clean sheets overall this season

Influences

Matches at Estadio Cuauhtémoc averaged 3.2 total goals over 5 games

The grass surface provides standard playing conditions

The historic BTTS rate at this venue stands at 80%

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