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Atlético San Luis – Guadalajara0 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Atlético San Luis
1.19
Total xG
2.67
Guadalajara
1.48
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Atlético San Luis | Guadalajara |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match) | +0.35 | +0.35 |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.17 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 5, 9 places gap) | −0.12 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.08 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 14, 9 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.05 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.02 | |
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Guadalajara recently dominated possession with 64% and averaged 6.8 shots on target in their last matches
- The mathematical model favors an away win for Guadalajara with a 42% probability
- The expected goals calculation projects 1.48 goals for Guadalajara compared to 1.19 for the home side
Risks
- Guadalajara shows defensive vulnerability away from home conceding an average of 1.88 goals per match
- The active goal contribution share in the Guadalajara squad is extremely low at only 11%
- Limited dataset regarding the squad impact of Atlético San Luis
All probabilities
Result
Atlético San Luis29%
Draw29%
Guadalajara42%
Double chance
Atlético San Luis or draw58%
Guadalajara or draw71%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.576%
Under 1.524%
Over 2.550%
Under 2.550%
Over 3.528%
Under 3.572%
Both teams score
Yes55%
No45%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:2
9%
0:2
8%
2:1
7%
2:2
5%
0:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Atlético San Luis: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Santos Laguna: 2 goals (86', 90+6')
- Guadalajara: first goal in 7 of 10 games (70%)
Lineups
Atlético San Luis 5-4-1 · Guadalajara 3-4-2-1
Atlético San Luis
- 1 A. Sánchez Rodríguez
- 2 R. Torres Acosta
- 3 R. Alves de Barros
- 14 M. Garcia Alvarez
- 31 E. Águila Castro
- 17 A. Duarte da Silva
- 11 D. Rodríguez Uribe
- 13 J. Caicedo Caicedo
- 21 Ó. Macías Mora
- 10 S. Salles Lamonge
- 22 R. Llorente Sanz
Guadalajara
- 1 J. Rangel Aguilar
- 23 D. Aguirre
- 3 D. Campillo del Campo
- 7 L. Romo Barrón
- 25 R. Alvarado Hernández
- 6 O. Govea García
- 28 F. González Pineda
- 14 H. Camberos Figueroa
- 30 S. Sandoval Loboa
- 17 R. Marín Sánchez
- 9 Á. Sepúlveda Sánchez
Substitutes
- 7 B. Galdames Millán
- 18 A. Cruz Sánchez
- 8 L. Nájera Reyna
- 26 S. Pérez Bouquet Pérez
- 5 R. Meraz Bernal
- 25 M. Lajud Bojalil
- 20 L. Flores
- 30 B. Galindo Cruz
- 16 L. Esteves Souza
- 19 S. Muñóz Robles
- 10 E. Álvarez
- 11 B. Gutierrez
- 37 R. Ledezma
- 19 K. Castañeda Vargas
- 16 L. Rey Mejía
- 13 Ó. Whalley Guardado
- 33 J. Carrillo Rodríguez
- 57 J. Hernandez
- 56 A. Chavez
- 18 J. Perez
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