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Liga MX

Atlético San Luis - Guadalajara

09/05/2026, 11:00 PM

0 : 3
Expected Goals
Atlético San Luis
1.2
Total xG
2.7
Guadalajara
1.5
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:2

9%

0:2

8%

2:1

7%

2:2

5%
What influences the xG?
ASLGUA

Atlético San Luis

Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
+0.17
Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 5, 9 places gap)
-0.12
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.08

Guadalajara

Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 14, 9 places gap)
+0.06
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
+0.05
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match)
-0.02
Full strength squad available

League

High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match)
+0.35
+0.35
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Atlético San Luis: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Santos Laguna: 2 goals (86', 90+6')

  • 2
    Guadalajara: first goal in 7 of 10 games (70%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

29%

Draw

29%

Away Win

42%

Goals

Over 1.5

76%

Under 1.5

24%

Over 2.5

50%

Under 2.5

50%

Over 3.5

28%

Under 3.5

72%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

58%

Away or Draw

71%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

55%

No

45%

Key Factors
  • Guadalajara recently dominated possession with 64% and averaged 6.8 shots on target in their last matches
  • The mathematical model favors an away win for Guadalajara with a 42% probability
  • The expected goals calculation projects 1.48 goals for Guadalajara compared to 1.19 for the home side
Risk Factors
  • Guadalajara shows defensive vulnerability away from home conceding an average of 1.88 goals per match
  • The active goal contribution share in the Guadalajara squad is extremely low at only 11%
  • Limited dataset regarding the squad impact of Atlético San Luis
Overview

Atlético San Luis hosts Guadalajara at Estadio Alfonso Lastras Ramírez

Liga MX match on September 5, 2026, 11:00 PM

The home side sits 14th with 6 points while the visitors are 5th with 11 points

A crucial encounter for both teams to improve their position

Form

Atlético San Luis form is DDLDW with 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss

Guadalajara is unbeaten in their last five matches with a WDWWD form

The visitors recorded 3 wins and 2 draws in all competitions

Atlético San Luis recently gained confidence after a win against Monterrey

Statistics

Atlético San Luis scores 1.44 goals on average and concedes 1.65 per game

Guadalajara has an impressive attack scoring 1.75 goals per match

However Guadalajara concedes an average of 1.88 goals per away match

The stadium averages 2.2 total goals per match

Head-to-Head

Even head-to-head record with 2 wins for each team in 4 direct encounters

The last match ended in a 3-2 away victory for Guadalajara on January 31, 2026

No draws have been recorded in their recent direct matchups

A total of 17 goals were scored across the 4 games

Key Players

Sébastien Salles-Lamonge controls the midfield for Atlético San Luis with a 7.23 season rating

David Rodríguez has contributed 2 goals for the home side

Attacker Roberto Alvarado leads Guadalajara with 4 goals this season

Goalkeepers

Andrés Sánchez featured in goal for Atlético San Luis with 7 clean sheets this season

Guadalajara goalkeeper Raúl Rangel has secured 14 clean sheets this season

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at Estadio Alfonso Lastras Ramírez

Venue history shows a low Over 2.5 rate of just 20%

Guadalajara shows a much weaker defensive record when playing away from home

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