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Liga MX

Puebla - Toluca

09/16/2026, 01:00 AM

0 : 1
Expected Goals
Puebla
1.2
Total xG
2.6
Toluca
1.4
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:2

9%

2:1

8%

0:2

7%

2:2

5%
What influences the xG?
PUETOL

Puebla

Attack weakness (0.52x league average)
-0.72
Defensive strength (2.1 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
+0.57
Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean
+0.49
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.12
Rising form (1.6 vs 1.2 season average)
+0.12
Standings disadvantage (pos 8 vs 2, 6 places gap)
-0.08
Eduardo Mustre Torres not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists)
16% of goal output missing (only 88% available)

Toluca

Rising form (3.5 vs 2.2 season average)
+0.39
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match)
+0.18
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
+0.18
Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 8, 6 places gap)
+0.04
Helinho on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)
Alexis Vega on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
Weak away record (1.7 vs 2.2 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match)
+0.34
+0.34
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Toluca: first goal in 8 of 11 games (73%)

  • 2
    Puebla: dropped a lead in 5 of 9 games (13 points lost)

  • 3
    Puebla: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

31%

Draw

29%

Away Win

40%

Goals

Over 1.5

75%

Under 1.5

25%

Over 2.5

49%

Under 2.5

51%

Over 3.5

27%

Under 3.5

73%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

60%

Away or Draw

70%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

55%

No

45%

Key Factors
  • Toluca's attacking form: The visitors currently score an average of 3.5 goals, higher than their seasonal average
  • Historical dominance: Toluca won 3 of the last 4 head-to-head matches with an aggregate score of 11 to 1
  • Possession control: Toluca averaged 60% possession in recent matches compared to Puebla's counter-focused playstyle
Risk Factors
  • Defensive vulnerability: Puebla concedes an average of 2.00 goals per game this season
  • Missing key player: Puebla must play without Eduardo Mustre Torres, leaving them with 88% of their usual starting strength
  • Toluca squad omissions: The visitors are missing Helinho and Alexis Vega from their starting lineup
Overview

Puebla host Toluca at the Estadio Cuauhtémoc

Liga MX match on September 16, 2026, 3:00 AM

Toluca travels as the second-placed team while Puebla sits in 8th place

Form

Puebla shows a form of DWWLW with 3 wins

Toluca arrives with a form of WDWWW and is unbeaten in 5 matches

Both teams won their last game

Statistics

Puebla concedes an average of 2.00 goals per game this season

Toluca scores an average of 1.86 goals per match

The visitors concede only 1.02 goals per game on average

Head-to-Head

Toluca dominated the last 4 head-to-head matches with 3 wins

Puebla failed to win any of these encounters with one draw

The last meeting ended in a 0-0 draw on January 31, 2026

Key Players

Carlos Baltazar recorded 1 goal and 1 assist this season for Puebla

MathĂ­as TomĂĄs also scored once in 4 appearances for the hosts

Federico Viñas leads the visitors with 3 goals this season

Goalkeepers

Daniel Gutiérrez starts for Puebla with a season rating of 6.9

Luis GarcĂ­a guards the goal for Toluca with a rating of 7.38

Toluca kept 13 clean sheets already this season

Influences

The Estadio Cuauhtémoc features a natural grass pitch

The venue averages 2.8 goals per match

Puebla's home record stands at 20 goals scored and 32 conceded

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