Match report →
Puebla – Toluca0 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Puebla
1.21
Total xG
2.63
Toluca
1.42
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Puebla | Toluca |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.52x league average) | −0.72 | |
| Defensive strength (2.1 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | +0.57 | |
| Small sample (2 matches), regression to mean | +0.49 | |
| Rising form (3.5 vs 2.2 season average) | +0.39 | |
| High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match) | +0.34 | +0.34 |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match) | +0.18 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.18 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.12 | |
| Rising form (1.6 vs 1.2 season average) | +0.12 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 8 vs 2, 6 places gap) | −0.08 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 8, 6 places gap) | +0.04 | |
| Eduardo Mustre Torres not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 16% of goal output missing (only 88% available) | ||
| Helinho on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Alexis Vega on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.7 vs 2.2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Toluca's attacking form: The visitors currently score an average of 3.5 goals, higher than their seasonal average
- Historical dominance: Toluca won 3 of the last 4 head-to-head matches with an aggregate score of 11 to 1
- Possession control: Toluca averaged 60% possession in recent matches compared to Puebla's counter-focused playstyle
Risks
- Defensive vulnerability: Puebla concedes an average of 2.00 goals per game this season
- Missing key player: Puebla must play without Eduardo Mustre Torres, leaving them with 88% of their usual starting strength
- Toluca squad omissions: The visitors are missing Helinho and Alexis Vega from their starting lineup
All probabilities
Result
Puebla31%
Draw29%
Toluca40%
Double chance
Puebla or draw60%
Toluca or draw70%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.575%
Under 1.525%
Over 2.549%
Under 2.551%
Over 3.527%
Under 3.573%
Both teams score
Yes55%
No45%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:2
9%
2:1
8%
0:2
7%
2:2
5%
0:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Toluca: first goal in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- Puebla: dropped a lead in 5 of 9 games (13 points lost)
- Puebla: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Puebla 4-4-2 · Toluca 4-2-3-1
Puebla
- 28 R. Gutiérrez Hernández
- 20 J. Pachuca Martinez
- 5 F. Almada
- 4 J. Vargas Campos
- 7 F. Monarrez Ochoa
- 24 A. Organista Orozco
- 27 B. Garnica Cortéz
- 21 S. Sanabria Ortega
- 10 M. Tomás Borges
- 22 C. Baltazar Agraz
- 19 I. Maestro Puch
Toluca
- 22 L. García Palomera
- 2 D. Barbosa Zaragoza
- 4 B. Méndez Cittadini
- 6 A. Pereira Castelnoble
- 25 E. López
- 5 F. Romero
- 8 N. Castro
- 10 J. Angulo Uriarte
- 16 F. Viñas Barboza
- 20 J. Gallardo Vasconcelos
- 26 J. Dias Fernandes
Substitutes
- 3 A. Herrera Rodríguez
- 16 A. Ramírez Jiménez
- 12 I. Moreno
- 33 J. Rodríguez Trujillo
- 15 O. Villa Domínguez
- 14 E. Armenta Palma
- 8 O. Moreno Villegas
- 2 ?. Leyva
- 25 H. De Jesus Jurado Flores
- 34 L. Azevedo da Silva
- 7 V. Guzmán Guzmán
- 11 H. Nunes de Castro
- 13 L. Garcia Teixeira
- 23 O. Virgen
- 15 P. Uriel Perez Hernandez
- 24 F. Arce Juárez
- 3 A. Briseño Vázquez
- 29 J. Díaz Price
- 184 Sebastián Aceves
- 12 Ronaldo Beltrán Dimas
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