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Liga MX

Guadalajara - Pumas UNAM

09/14/2026, 01:07 AM

3 : 0
Expected Goals
Guadalajara
1.4
Total xG
2.4
Pumas UNAM
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:0

12%

0:0

11%

2:0

10%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
GUAPU

Guadalajara

Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
+0.26
Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.19
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.09
Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 10, 6 places gap)
+0.04

Pumas UNAM

Attack weakness (0.41x league average)
-1.07
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
+0.69
Rising form (2.2 vs 1.7 season average)
+0.16
Standings disadvantage (pos 10 vs 4, 6 places gap)
-0.06
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.02
Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+0.02
Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.7 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match)
+0.35
+0.35
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

47%

Draw

30%

Away Win

23%

Goals

Over 1.5

70%

Under 1.5

30%

Over 2.5

42%

Under 2.5

58%

Over 3.5

22%

Under 3.5

78%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

77%

Away or Draw

53%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

48%

No

52%

Key Factors
  • Home dominance on artificial turf with a record of 7 wins and only 1 defeat for Guadalajara
  • Significant rest advantage for Guadalajara with 9 days of recovery compared to just 3 days for Pumas UNAM
  • Guadalajara averaged 5.8 shots on target per match in recent games
Risk Factors
  • Higher risk of fatigue for Pumas UNAM with only 3 days since their last match
  • Pumas UNAM are currently scoring more frequently at 2.3 goals per game compared to their season average of 1.7
  • Defensive vulnerability for the visitors with an average of 1.50 goals conceded per away game
Overview

Guadalajara host Pumas UNAM

Match on September 14, 2026, 3:07 AM at Estadio AKRON

Guadalajara are in 4th place with 14 points

Pumas UNAM are in 10th place with 11 points

Mathematical analysis predicts a home win with a 47% probability

Form

Guadalajara show form DWWDW

Pumas UNAM arrive with form WDDLW

Form code explanation: W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Guadalajara score an average of 1.75 goals per home match

The home defense concedes only 0.79 goals per game at Estadio AKRON

Pumas UNAM concede an average of 1.50 goals in away games

The model expects 1.44 goals for the hosts and 0.93 goals for the visitors

Head-to-Head

There are 4 recorded head-to-head matches

Guadalajara dominate with 2 wins and 2 draws

The last meeting ended in a 2-2 draw

Guadalajara scored a total of 5 goals while Pumas UNAM scored 3

Key Players

Roberto Alvarado stands out with 4 goals and 1 assist in 7 appearances

Ricardo MarĂ­n contributed 4 goals and 2 assists this season

Robert Morales is a major asset with 1 goal and 3 assists

Juninho has scored 3 goals in 6 matches this season

Goalkeepers

RaĂșl Rangel guards Guadalajara's goal with a 7.11 average rating

The hosts have achieved 14 clean sheets in total this season

Keylor Navas is in goal for Pumas UNAM with a rating of 6.56

The visitors have kept 12 clean sheets so far

Influences

The match is played on artificial turf

Guadalajara have an excellent record of 7 wins on artificial turf

Pumas UNAM have not won any matches on artificial turf yet

The average total goals at this venue is 2.4 per game

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