Match report →
Guadalajara – Pumas UNAM3 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Guadalajara
1.44
Total xG
2.38
Pumas UNAM
0.93
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Guadalajara | Pumas UNAM |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.41x league average) | −1.07 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.69 | |
| High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match) | +0.35 | +0.35 |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.26 | |
| Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.19 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.7 season average) | +0.16 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.09 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 10 vs 4, 6 places gap) | −0.06 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 10, 6 places gap) | +0.04 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.02 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.02 | |
| Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.7 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home dominance on artificial turf with a record of 7 wins and only 1 defeat for Guadalajara
- Significant rest advantage for Guadalajara with 9 days of recovery compared to just 3 days for Pumas UNAM
- Guadalajara averaged 5.8 shots on target per match in recent games
Risks
- Higher risk of fatigue for Pumas UNAM with only 3 days since their last match
- Pumas UNAM are currently scoring more frequently at 2.3 goals per game compared to their season average of 1.7
- Defensive vulnerability for the visitors with an average of 1.50 goals conceded per away game
All probabilities
Result
Guadalajara47%
Draw30%
Pumas UNAM23%
Double chance
Guadalajara or draw77%
Pumas UNAM or draw53%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.570%
Under 1.530%
Over 2.542%
Under 2.558%
Over 3.522%
Under 3.578%
Both teams score
Yes48%
No52%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:0
12%
0:0
11%
2:0
10%
2:1
9%
3:0
Final score
Lineups
Guadalajara 3-4-2-1 · Pumas UNAM 3-4-2-1
Guadalajara
- 1 J. Rangel Aguilar
- 23 D. Aguirre
- 3 D. Campillo del Campo
- 7 L. Romo Barrón
- 25 R. Alvarado Hernández
- 6 O. Govea García
- 28 F. González Pineda
- 14 H. Camberos Figueroa
- 30 S. Sandoval Loboa
- 17 R. Marín Sánchez
- 9 Á. Sepúlveda Sánchez
Pumas UNAM
- 1 K. Navas Gamboa
- 21 C. Antuna Romero
- 7 R. López Quiñones
- 6 N. da Silva
- 5 R. Duarte Sánchez
- 2 P. Bennevendo Peña
- 18 V. Arteaga Camarena
- 45 P. Vite Uca
- 14 L. Herrera
- 31 R. Morales
- 23 O. Vieira dos Santos Júnior
Substitutes
- 10 E. Álvarez
- 11 B. Gutierrez
- 37 R. Ledezma
- 19 K. Castañeda Vargas
- 5 B. González
- 16 L. Rey Mejía
- 13 Ó. Whalley Guardado
- 33 J. Carrillo Rodríguez
- 57 J. Hernandez
- 18 J. Perez
- 8 A. Carrasquilla Alcázar
- 19 J. Rivas Gutiérrez
- 24 A. Leone Larios
- 15 I. Luna López
- 20 S. Trigos Nava
- 30 S. López López
- 34 ?. Azuaje García
- 22 A. Medina Camacho
- 35 P. Lara Nevarez
- 202 J. Castillejos
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →