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Santos Laguna – Juárez2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Santos Laguna
1.51
Total xG
2.51
Juárez
1.00
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Santos Laguna | Juárez |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.51x league average) | −0.89 | |
| Defensive weakness (2 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.60 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.51 | |
| Defensive strength (2 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | +0.48 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | −0.46 | |
| High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match) | +0.35 | +0.35 |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.23 | |
| Declining form (0.6 vs 1.4 season average) | −0.23 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match) | −0.23 | |
| Declining form (0.5 vs 1.2 season average) | −0.20 | |
| Weak away record (0.3 vs 1.4 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Away defensive vulnerability: Juárez recently conceded an average of 3.8 goals per match
- Low offensive threat: Santos Laguna averaged 2.8 shots on target in recent matches, while Juárez averaged 2.0
- Mathematical bias: The model calculates a 47% probability for a home win for Santos Laguna
Risks
- Limited attacking threat: Santos Laguna averaged only 2.8 shots on target in recent matches
- Away defensive weakness: Juárez concedes an average of 2.25 goals per away game this season
- Weakened scoring rate: Santos Laguna averages only 0.5 goals per match in recent games compared to 1.15 on season
All probabilities
Result
Santos Laguna47%
Draw29%
Juárez24%
Double chance
Santos Laguna or draw76%
Juárez or draw53%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.573%
Under 1.527%
Over 2.546%
Under 2.554%
Over 3.524%
Under 3.576%
Both teams score
Yes51%
No49%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
9%
2:0
9%
1:2
6%
2:2
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Juárez: opponent scores first in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Juárez: 60% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (6 of 10)
- Santos Laguna: opponent scores first in 8 of 11 games (73%)
Lineups
Santos Laguna 3-4-3 · Juárez 4-2-3-1
Santos Laguna
- 1 C. Acevedo López
- 18 F. Pardo
- 25 F. Sanchez
- 14 E. Orona Zavala
- 3 M. Cuevas
- 23 F. Cáseres
- 21 F. Villalba Rodrigo
- 7 D. Gonzalez Alcaraz
- 77 K. Palacios Salazar
- 10 E. Bullaude
- 19 E. Aguirre Lara
Juárez
- 1 S. Jurado Roca
- 33 F. Nevarez Pulgarin
- 3 J. Murillo Largacha
- 2 G. Sepúlveda López
- 4 M. Mayorga Almaráz
- 13 R. Dourado Cunha
- 6 Monchu
- 5 D. García Bojórquez
- 10 Í. Torres Ramírez
- 11 J. Rodríguez Francis
- 19 O. Estupiñán Vallesilla
Substitutes
- 20 E. Lozano Solana
- 4 J. Abella Fanjul
- 6 J. Güemez López
- 8 S. Mariscal Murra
- 17 E. Echeverría Mata
- 26 R. Sordo
- 33 H. Holguín
- 28 J. Pérez Sánchez
- 29 T. Jiménez Sánchez
- 193 L. Gómez Bernal
- 8 G. Castilho Carvalho
- 9 M. de Souza Silva
- 21 R. Oliveira António
- 14 E. López Castro
- 20 J. Aquino Carmona
- 23 Ó. Ortega Gatica
- 16 J. Sigala García
- 7 R. Fulgencio Román
- 17 L. Martínez Dupuy
- 27 G. Ruiz
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