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Liga MX

Santos Laguna - Juárez

09/14/2026, 01:00 AM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Santos Laguna
1.5
Total xG
2.5
Juárez
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

2:0

9%

1:2

6%

2:2

5%
What influences the xG?
SLJUÁ

Santos Laguna

Defensive strength (2 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
+0.48
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
-0.46
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match)
-0.23
Declining form (0.5 vs 1.2 season average)
-0.20

Juárez

Attack weakness (0.51x league average)
-0.89
Defensive weakness (2 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+0.60
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
+0.51
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.23
Declining form (0.6 vs 1.4 season average)
-0.23
Weak away record (0.3 vs 1.4 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match)
+0.35
+0.35
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Juárez: opponent scores first in 9 of 12 games (75%)

  • 2
    Juárez: 60% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (6 of 10)

  • 3
    Santos Laguna: opponent scores first in 8 of 11 games (73%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

47%

Draw

29%

Away Win

24%

Goals

Over 1.5

73%

Under 1.5

27%

Over 2.5

46%

Under 2.5

54%

Over 3.5

24%

Under 3.5

76%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

76%

Away or Draw

53%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

51%

No

49%

Key Factors
  • Away defensive vulnerability: Juárez recently conceded an average of 3.8 goals per match
  • Low offensive threat: Santos Laguna averaged 2.8 shots on target in recent matches, while Juárez averaged 2.0
  • Mathematical bias: The model calculates a 47% probability for a home win for Santos Laguna
Risk Factors
  • Limited attacking threat: Santos Laguna averaged only 2.8 shots on target in recent matches
  • Away defensive weakness: Juárez concedes an average of 2.25 goals per away game this season
  • Weakened scoring rate: Santos Laguna averages only 0.5 goals per match in recent games compared to 1.15 on season
Overview

Santos Laguna (17th place, 1 point) host Juárez (18th place, 0 points) at Estadio Nuevo Corona

Liga MX match on September 14, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC

A bottom-of-the-table clash between two struggling sides

Form

Santos Laguna form: LLLDL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Recent results show 0 wins, 1 draw, and 4 losses

Juárez form: LLLLL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Recent results show 0 wins, 0 draws, and 5 losses

Both teams are in a deep competitive crisis

Statistics

Santos Laguna scores an average of 1.24 goals per game and concedes 1.94 goals

Home record: 1.25 goals scored and 1.1 goals conceded per match

Juárez averages 1.5 goals scored and concedes 1.74 goals per game

The away side concedes an average of 2.25 goals and scores 1.5 goals in away matches

Santos Laguna recorded 6 clean sheets so far this season

Head-to-Head

4 head-to-head matches in history

Juárez leads with 3 wins to 0 wins for Santos Laguna, with 1 draw

The last direct encounter ended in a 2-2 draw on January 18, 2026

Overall goal difference of 3:7 in favor of Juárez

Key Players

Ezequiel Bullaude with one goal in the last 5 matches and a season average rating of 6.97

Fran Villalba records an average rating of 6.98 and contributed one assist

Felipe Sánchez strengthens the defense with an average rating of 6.96

José Luis Rodríguez contributed 1 goal and 2 assists in the last 5 games with a rating of 6.87

Óscar Estupiñán scored 2 goals in the last 5 matches with a rating of 6.64

Jairo Torres provided one assist and holds an average rating of 6.65

Goalkeepers

Carlos Acevedo in goal for Santos Laguna holds an average rating of 7.39

Sebastián Jurado guards the goal for Juárez with an average rating of 6.79

Santos Laguna recorded 6 clean sheets this season, compared to 3 for Juárez

Influences

Home advantage for Santos Laguna at Estadio Nuevo Corona on a grass surface

Historical goal average at this venue stands at 1.2 goals per match

There was not a single match where both teams scored in the last 5 games at this stadium

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