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Liga MX

Monterrey - Tigres UANL

09/13/2026, 01:10 AM

0 : 0
Expected Goals
Monterrey
1.7
Total xG
3.0
Tigres UANL
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

9%

2:0

7%

1:2

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
MONTU

Monterrey

Attack strength (1.56x league average)
+0.75
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
-0.47
Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+0.18
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (2 goals/match)
+0.08

Tigres UANL

Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean
+0.29
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.23
Declining form (1.5 vs 2 season average)
-0.14
Full strength squad available
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Tigres UANL: 7 of 16 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)

  • 2
    Monterrey: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 3
    Tigres UANL: opponent scores first in 7 of 10 games (70%)

  • 4
    Monterrey: 32% of all goals between minutes 16-30 (6 of 19)

  • 5
    Monterrey: 63% of all goals in the first half (12 of 19, last 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

45%

Draw

27%

Away Win

28%

Goals

Over 1.5

81%

Under 1.5

19%

Over 2.5

57%

Under 2.5

43%

Over 3.5

35%

Under 3.5

65%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

72%

Away or Draw

55%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

60%

No

40%

Key Factors
  • Critical limitation: Tigres UANL has only 12% of their usual seasonal goal production available according to the dataset
  • Form trend: Monterrey is currently scoring more frequently with an average of 2.0 goals compared to their season average of 1.7
  • Tactical edge: Monterrey recently averaged a strong 5.6 shots on target per match with 57% possession
Risk Factors
  • Defensive vulnerability away: Tigres UANL concedes an average of 1.87 goals in away matches
  • Struggling attack: Tigres UANL is currently scoring only 1.5 goals per match compared to their seasonal average of 2.0
  • Inconsistent form: Monterrey suffered two consecutive defeats in their most recent league games
Overview

Monterrey (12th place, 9 points) host Tigres UANL (15th place, 6 points)

Liga MX match on September 13, 2026, 3:10 AM at Estadio BBVA Bancomer

Both teams are looking to close the gap to the upper half of the table

The home team enters this clash as the favorite according to the model

Form

Monterrey shows the form LWWLL with two consecutive losses recently

Tigres UANL holds the form LLWDD, coming off two consecutive draws

Monterrey has recorded 2 wins and 3 losses in their form summary

Tigres UANL has 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses in their recent record

Form key: W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Monterrey scored 61 goals in 38 games this season (avg. 1.61 goals per game)

The home team conceded 58 goals (avg. 1.53) and kept 10 clean sheets

Tigres UANL scored 75 goals in 42 matches (avg. 1.79) and conceded 44 goals (avg. 1.05)

At home, Monterrey averages 1.62 goals scored and 1.10 goals conceded

Away from home, Tigres UANL concedes an average of 1.87 goals per match

Head-to-Head

Across 4 head-to-head matches, Monterrey won 1, Tigres UANL won 2, with 1 draw

The goal difference in these meetings is balanced at 6:6

The last match on March 8, 2026, ended in a 1-0 win for Tigres UANL

Tigres UANL is recent dominant in direct matchups

Key Players

Lucas Ocampos is Monterrey's top attacker with 5 goals and 2 assists in 5 games

Diego Rossi shines in midfield with 2 goals, 3 assists, and an average rating of 7.14

Hugo Cuypers has contributed 2 goals and 1 assist in 5 appearances for the home side

Juan Brunetta leads Tigres UANL's play with 3 goals, 4 assists, and an 8.0 rating

Rodrigo Aguirre scored 3 goals and provided 1 assist in 6 appearances for the visitors

Diego Lainez made 7 appearances for the away side with an average rating of 7.06

Goalkeepers

Esteban Andrada guards Monterrey's goal with an average rating of 6.12

Nahuel GuzmĂĄn is in goal for Tigres UANL with an average rating of 6.84

Monterrey has managed to keep 10 clean sheets overall this season

Tigres UANL kept their goal clean in 14 matches

Influences

Estadio BBVA Bancomer saw an average of 3.8 goals per game in recent matches

Stats show a high likelihood of both teams scoring with an 80% BTTS rate at this venue

Monterrey plays on their usual natural grass surface, providing additional stability

The home team averages 1.62 goals scored and 1.10 goals conceded on their own turf

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