Liga MX
Monterrey - Tigres UANL
09/13/2026, 01:10 AM
Expected Goals
1.7
3.0
1.3
1:1
13%2:1
9%2:0
7%1:2
7%2:2
6%What influences the xG?
Monterrey
Tigres UANL
The Lab
- 1Tigres UANL: 7 of 16 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- 2Monterrey: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- 3Tigres UANL: opponent scores first in 7 of 10 games (70%)
- 4Monterrey: 32% of all goals between minutes 16-30 (6 of 19)
- 5Monterrey: 63% of all goals in the first half (12 of 19, last 12 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
45%
Draw
27%
Away Win
28%
Goals
Over 1.5
81%
Under 1.5
19%
Over 2.5
57%
Under 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
35%
Under 3.5
65%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
72%
Away or Draw
55%
No Draw
73%
Both Score
Yes
60%
No
40%
Key Factors
- Critical limitation: Tigres UANL has only 12% of their usual seasonal goal production available according to the dataset
- Form trend: Monterrey is currently scoring more frequently with an average of 2.0 goals compared to their season average of 1.7
- Tactical edge: Monterrey recently averaged a strong 5.6 shots on target per match with 57% possession
Risk Factors
- Defensive vulnerability away: Tigres UANL concedes an average of 1.87 goals in away matches
- Struggling attack: Tigres UANL is currently scoring only 1.5 goals per match compared to their seasonal average of 2.0
- Inconsistent form: Monterrey suffered two consecutive defeats in their most recent league games
Overview
Monterrey (12th place, 9 points) host Tigres UANL (15th place, 6 points)
Liga MX match on September 13, 2026, 3:10 AM at Estadio BBVA Bancomer
Both teams are looking to close the gap to the upper half of the table
The home team enters this clash as the favorite according to the model
Form
Monterrey shows the form LWWLL with two consecutive losses recently
Tigres UANL holds the form LLWDD, coming off two consecutive draws
Monterrey has recorded 2 wins and 3 losses in their form summary
Tigres UANL has 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses in their recent record
Form key: W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Monterrey scored 61 goals in 38 games this season (avg. 1.61 goals per game)
The home team conceded 58 goals (avg. 1.53) and kept 10 clean sheets
Tigres UANL scored 75 goals in 42 matches (avg. 1.79) and conceded 44 goals (avg. 1.05)
At home, Monterrey averages 1.62 goals scored and 1.10 goals conceded
Away from home, Tigres UANL concedes an average of 1.87 goals per match
Head-to-Head
Across 4 head-to-head matches, Monterrey won 1, Tigres UANL won 2, with 1 draw
The goal difference in these meetings is balanced at 6:6
The last match on March 8, 2026, ended in a 1-0 win for Tigres UANL
Tigres UANL is recent dominant in direct matchups
Key Players
Lucas Ocampos is Monterrey's top attacker with 5 goals and 2 assists in 5 games
Diego Rossi shines in midfield with 2 goals, 3 assists, and an average rating of 7.14
Hugo Cuypers has contributed 2 goals and 1 assist in 5 appearances for the home side
Juan Brunetta leads Tigres UANL's play with 3 goals, 4 assists, and an 8.0 rating
Rodrigo Aguirre scored 3 goals and provided 1 assist in 6 appearances for the visitors
Diego Lainez made 7 appearances for the away side with an average rating of 7.06
Goalkeepers
Esteban Andrada guards Monterrey's goal with an average rating of 6.12
Nahuel GuzmĂĄn is in goal for Tigres UANL with an average rating of 6.84
Monterrey has managed to keep 10 clean sheets overall this season
Tigres UANL kept their goal clean in 14 matches
Influences
Estadio BBVA Bancomer saw an average of 3.8 goals per game in recent matches
Stats show a high likelihood of both teams scoring with an 80% BTTS rate at this venue
Monterrey plays on their usual natural grass surface, providing additional stability
The home team averages 1.62 goals scored and 1.10 goals conceded on their own turf