Match report →
Monterrey – Tigres UANL0 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Monterrey
1.69
Total xG
2.97
Tigres UANL
1.29
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Monterrey | Tigres UANL |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.56x league average) | +0.75 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | −0.47 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.29 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.23 | |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.18 | |
| Declining form (1.5 vs 2 season average) | −0.14 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (2 goals/match) | +0.08 | |
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Critical limitation: Tigres UANL has only 12% of their usual seasonal goal production available according to the dataset
- Form trend: Monterrey is currently scoring more frequently with an average of 2.0 goals compared to their season average of 1.7
- Tactical edge: Monterrey recently averaged a strong 5.6 shots on target per match with 57% possession
Risks
- Defensive vulnerability away: Tigres UANL concedes an average of 1.87 goals in away matches
- Struggling attack: Tigres UANL is currently scoring only 1.5 goals per match compared to their seasonal average of 2.0
- Inconsistent form: Monterrey suffered two consecutive defeats in their most recent league games
All probabilities
Result
Monterrey45%
Draw27%
Tigres UANL28%
Double chance
Monterrey or draw72%
Tigres UANL or draw55%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.581%
Under 1.519%
Over 2.557%
Under 2.543%
Over 3.535%
Under 3.565%
Both teams score
Yes60%
No40%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:1
9%
2:0
7%
1:2
7%
2:2
6%
0:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Tigres UANL: 7 of 16 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Monterrey: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Tigres UANL: opponent scores first in 7 of 10 games (70%)
- Monterrey: 32% of all goals between minutes 16-30 (6 of 19)
- Monterrey: 63% of all goals in the first half (12 of 19, last 12 games)
Lineups
Monterrey 4-2-3-1 · Tigres UANL 4-2-3-1
Monterrey
- 1 E. Andrada
- 2 R. Chávez Soto
- 4 V. Guzmán Olmedo
- 13 C. Salcedo Hernández
- 3 G. Arteaga Zamora
- 8 Ó. Torres Muñoz
- 25 O. Pineda Alvarado
- 9 D. Rossi Marachlian
- 7 L. Ocampos
- 17 J. Corona Ruíz
- 99 H. Cuypers
Tigres UANL
- 1 N. Guzmán
- 14 J. Garza García
- 28 J. Pereira Silva
- 15 A. Franco
- 19 M. Laínez Leyva
- 8 F. Gorriarán Fontes
- 23 R. Zanre Zwarg
- 16 D. Lainez Leyva
- 11 J. Brunetta
- 21 R. Monreal Morales
- 17 R. Aguirre Soto
Substitutes
- 11 I. Fimbres Ochoa
- 5 F. Ambríz
- 32 U. Đurđević
- 14 E. Aguirre Tafolla
- 21 L. Reyes Moreno
- 22 L. Cárdenas López
- 27 R. De La Rosa González
- 30 J. Rodriguez
- 33 J. Medina Ramírez
- 10 L. Orellano
- 22 G. Martínez Ayala
- 9 E. Gómez Dutra
- 6 J. Vigón Cham
- 25 C. Rodríguez Rangel
- 77 J. Herrera Morales
- 30 D. Sánchez Guevara
- 33 R. Guerrero Ramirez
- 26 F. Ordóñez Delgado
- 5 C. Araújo Vilches
- 34 H. Koifman
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →