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Liga MX

León - Atlético San Luis

09/15/2026, 01:00 AM

2 : 0
Expected Goals
León
1.5
Total xG
2.7
Atlético San Luis
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

1:2

8%

2:0

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
LEÓASL

León

Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
-0.17
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.08
Rising form (1.4 vs 1.1 season average)
+0.08
Strong home record (1.4 vs 1.1 goals/match)
Full strength squad available

Atlético San Luis

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.19
Attack weakness (0.77x league average)
-0.15
Declining form (1 vs 1.4 season average)
-0.13
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
+0.05
Weak away record (0.7 vs 1.4 goals/match)
Full strength squad available

League

High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match)
+0.35
+0.35
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Atlético San Luis: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Santos Laguna: 2 goals (86', 90+6')

  • 2
    León with Díber Cambindo starting: 1.4 goals/game, without him: 0.6 (18/7 games, last 30)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

41%

Draw

28%

Away Win

30%

Goals

Over 1.5

78%

Under 1.5

22%

Over 2.5

52%

Under 2.5

48%

Over 3.5

30%

Under 3.5

70%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

70%

Away or Draw

59%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

57%

No

43%

Key Factors
  • Home advantage and model forecast: The model calculates a 41% home win probability for León
  • Attacking presence: León averaged 5.2 shots on target in their recent matches
  • Historical dominance: León have won 3 of the last 4 head-to-head encounters against San Luis
Risk Factors
  • Severe squad impact: Only 25% of León's and 14% of San Luis's goal contribution are active in this lineup
  • Struggling attack: Atlético San Luis's goal production has stalled, averaging 1.0 goals recently compared to 1.42 over the season
  • Defensive vulnerability: León have conceded an average of 1.85 goals per game this season
Overview

León (12th place, 10 points) host Atlético San Luis (16th place, 6 points)

Liga MX match on September 15, 2026, 1:00 AM

A crucial battle as León look to climb into the top ten

Form

León show a positive trend with a form of WWWDL

A recent 1-3 loss against Pumas UNAM interrupted a three-game winning streak

Atlético San Luis struggle with a form of DLDWL

The visitors lost their last match 0-3 against Guadalajara

Statistics

León score an average of 1.06 goals and concede 1.85 per game this season

Atlético San Luis average 1.44 goals scored and 1.65 conceded

León's home record is perfectly balanced with 1.04 goals scored and conceded per game

San Luis concede an average of 1.67 goals in their away matches

Head-to-Head

León dominate the direct record with 3 wins in 4 matches

Atlético San Luis have only won once in their recent meetings

The last match ended in a 2-1 victory for León on March 22, 2026

Key Players

Jordi Cortizo leads León's attack with a strong average rating of 7.35

Daniel Arcila has already scored 3 goals this season for the hosts

Sébastien Salles-Lamonge is San Luis's standout midfielder with an average rating of 7.22

Goalkeepers

Óscar García has played 7 games for León with an average rating of 7.05

Manuel Gibran Lajud Bojalil has featured in 1 game for Atlético San Luis, holding a 6.13 rating

Influences

Estadio León averages 3.4 total goals per game

Both teams have scored in 60% of matches played at this venue

The game will be played on natural grass

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