Match report →
León – Atlético San Luis2 : 0
Why the model thinks so
León
1.50
Total xG
2.75
Atlético San Luis
1.25
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | León | Atlético San Luis |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match) | +0.35 | +0.35 |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.19 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | −0.17 | |
| Attack weakness (0.77x league average) | −0.15 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.4 season average) | −0.13 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.08 | |
| Rising form (1.4 vs 1.1 season average) | +0.08 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.05 | |
| Strong home record (1.4 vs 1.1 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (0.7 vs 1.4 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Home advantage and model forecast: The model calculates a 41% home win probability for León
- Attacking presence: León averaged 5.2 shots on target in their recent matches
- Historical dominance: León have won 3 of the last 4 head-to-head encounters against San Luis
Risks
- Severe squad impact: Only 25% of León's and 14% of San Luis's goal contribution are active in this lineup
- Struggling attack: Atlético San Luis's goal production has stalled, averaging 1.0 goals recently compared to 1.42 over the season
- Defensive vulnerability: León have conceded an average of 1.85 goals per game this season
All probabilities
Result
León41%
Draw28%
Atlético San Luis30%
Double chance
León or draw70%
Atlético San Luis or draw59%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.578%
Under 1.522%
Over 2.552%
Under 2.548%
Over 3.530%
Under 3.570%
Both teams score
Yes57%
No43%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:0
7%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Atlético San Luis: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Santos Laguna: 2 goals (86', 90+6')
- León with Díber Cambindo starting: 1.4 goals/game, without him: 0.6 (18/7 games, last 30)
Lineups
León 4-1-4-1 · Atlético San Luis 3-4-3
León
- 23 O. García
- 7 I. Moreno Füguemann
- 14 J. Romaña Espitia
- 3 J. Guevara
- 26 S. Reyes Chávez
- 29 J. Rodríguez Rebollar
- 16 J. Cortizo de la Piedra
- 20 R. Echeverría Sáez
- 203 J. Aldair Lara Sánchez
- 13 D. Arcila
- 27 D. Cambindo Abonia
Atlético San Luis
- 25 M. Lajud Bojalil
- 30 B. Galindo Cruz
- 31 E. Águila Castro
- 18 A. Cruz Sánchez
- 2 R. Torres Acosta
- 21 Ó. Macías Mora
- 10 S. Salles Lamonge
- 17 A. Duarte da Silva
- 11 D. Rodríguez Uribe
- 22 R. Llorente Sanz
- 26 S. Pérez Bouquet Pérez
Substitutes
- 11 I. Díaz De León
- 15 S. Fierro González
- 4 B. Colula Alarcón
- 18 E. Guerra
- 6 F. Beltrán Cruz
- 25 P. Bellón Saracho
- 19 J. Alvarado Pérez
- 185 C. Mora Espinoza
- 33 A. Villegas
- 181 I. Gutiérrez
- 99 F. Mora Aliaga
- 6 J. Ramírez López
- 7 B. Galdames Millán
- 14 M. Garcia Alvarez
- 23 C. López De Alba
- 8 L. Nájera Reyna
- 5 R. Meraz Bernal
- 20 L. Flores
- 19 S. Muñóz Robles
- 13 J. Caicedo Caicedo
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