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Liga MX

Atlante - Pachuca

09/12/2026, 03:00 AM

0 : 3
Expected Goals
Atlante
1.2
Total xG
2.5
Pachuca
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

10%

0:1

9%

1:0

8%

1:2

8%
What influences the xG?
ATLPAC

Atlante

Attack weakness (0.52x league average)
-0.79
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
+0.51
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.05
Jhojan Julio not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)
Eugenio Pizzuto not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)
L. Calzadilla not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
100% of goal output missing (only 0% available)

Pachuca

Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean
+0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.07
Salomón Rondón not in squad (7 goals, 0 assists)
Oussama Idrissi not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)
Carlos Adrián Sánchez Nava not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)
Elías Montiel not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
100% of goal output missing (only 0% available)
Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.4 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match)
+0.32
+0.32
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Atlante: 6 of 9 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 7 games)

  • 2
    Pachuca: 2.9 cards per game (27 yellows, 5 reds in 11 games)

  • 3
    Atlante: scored only after the break in 4 of 7 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

33%

Draw

31%

Away Win

37%

Goals

Over 1.5

72%

Under 1.5

28%

Over 2.5

44%

Under 2.5

56%

Over 3.5

23%

Under 3.5

77%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

63%

Away or Draw

67%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

52%

No

48%

Key Factors
  • Only 0% of regular goal threat available for Atlante as Jhojan Julio, Eugenio Pizzuto, and L. Calzadilla are not in the lineup
  • Only 0% of regular goal threat available for Pachuca with Salomón Rondón, Oussama Idrissi, Carlos Adrián Sánchez Nava, and Elías Montiel missing
  • The mathematical model calculates a slight away win advantage of 37% for Pachuca
Risk Factors
  • Pachuca averaged only 3.4 shots on target per match in recent games
  • Limited database records on head-to-head matches between both teams
Overview

Atlante (14th place, 7 points) hosts Pachuca (12th place, 8 points) at the Estadio Banorte

Liga MX match on September 12, 2026, 3:00 AM

A tight mid-table clash where both teams aim to climb the standings

Form

Atlante's recent form is WDLDD with two consecutive draws

The home side recorded 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss in their last five matches

Pachuca enters with a form of LLDDW but won their most recent fixture

The visitors registered 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses in their last five games

Statistics

Atlante scores an average of 1.0 goals and concedes 1.29 goals per game this season

Both teams scored in 5 out of 7 matches played by Atlante

Pachuca averages 1.35 goals scored and 1.1 goals conceded per match this season

The visitors have kept 10 clean sheets so far

Stadium statistics at Estadio Banorte indicate an average of 1.8 goals per game

Key Players

Goalkeeper Óscar Jiménez has played 7 season matches with an average rating of 7.2

Eduardo Tercero impresses in defense with a home rating of 7.17

L. Calzadilla records an average rating of 7.34 at home in attack

Defender Sergio Damián Barreto has completed 7 matches with an average rating of 6.97

Goalkeeper Carlos Agustín Moreno Luna carries an away rating of 7.13

Eduardo Gabriel dos Santos Bauermann stabilizes the defense with an away rating of 6.75

Goalkeepers

Óscar Jiménez has played 7 season matches, keeping 1 clean sheet

Away goalkeeper Carlos Agustín Moreno Luna averages a rating of 7.13 in away fixtures

Pachuca has already recorded 10 clean sheets this season

Influences

Atlante benefits from an average of 1.0 home goals per game at Estadio Banorte

Pachuca concedes an average of 1.32 goals in away matches

Matches at Estadio Banorte have a historical BTTS rate of 20%

The match will be played on natural grass

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