Match report →
Atlante – Pachuca0 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Atlante
1.18
Total xG
2.46
Pachuca
1.27
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Atlante | Pachuca |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.52x league average) | −0.79 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.51 | |
| High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match) | +0.32 | +0.32 |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.07 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.05 | |
| Jhojan Julio not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Eugenio Pizzuto not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| L. Calzadilla not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 100% of goal output missing (only 0% available) | ||
| Salomón Rondón not in squad (7 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Oussama Idrissi not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Carlos Adrián Sánchez Nava not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Elías Montiel not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 100% of goal output missing (only 0% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.4 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Only 0% of regular goal threat available for Atlante as Jhojan Julio, Eugenio Pizzuto, and L. Calzadilla are not in the lineup
- Only 0% of regular goal threat available for Pachuca with Salomón Rondón, Oussama Idrissi, Carlos Adrián Sánchez Nava, and Elías Montiel missing
- The mathematical model calculates a slight away win advantage of 37% for Pachuca
Risks
- Pachuca averaged only 3.4 shots on target per match in recent games
- Limited database records on head-to-head matches between both teams
All probabilities
Result
Atlante33%
Draw31%
Pachuca37%
Double chance
Atlante or draw63%
Pachuca or draw67%
No draw69%
Goals
Over 1.572%
Under 1.528%
Over 2.544%
Under 2.556%
Over 3.523%
Under 3.577%
Both teams score
Yes52%
No48%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
10%
0:1
9%
1:0
8%
1:2
8%
0:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Atlante: 6 of 9 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 7 games)
- Pachuca: 2.9 cards per game (27 yellows, 5 reds in 11 games)
- Atlante: scored only after the break in 4 of 7 games
Lineups
Atlante 5-3-2 · Pachuca 4-2-3-1
Atlante
- 1 Ó. Jiménez Fabela
- 29 W. Portales
- 14 C. Alfaro
- 4 E. Tercero Méndez
- 44 A. Quiroz
- 19 L. Calzadilla Santillán
- 30 M. Sarrafiore
- 8 E. Pizzuto Puga
- 25 M. Fernández Figueira
- 7 J. Julio Palacios
- 11 J. Moxica Chapa
Pachuca
- 25 C. Moreno
- 14 C. Sánchez Nava
- 4 E. dos Santos Bauermann
- 2 S. Barreto
- 15 F. Venegas Moreno
- 30 S. Rodriguez
- 16 C. Rivera Cuéllar
- 29 R. Nunes do Nascimento
- 26 A. Bautista Gutiérrez
- 11 O. Idrissi
- 23 J. Rondón Giménez
Substitutes
- 37 W. Clar Fritz
- 3 L. Sánchez Saucedo
- 9 L. Puente Prado
- 20 G. Adame
- 6 N. Carrera
- 15 J. Charcopa Cabezas
- 16 J. González
- 27 A. Escobar Díaz
- 22 R. Barragán Casillas
- 10 Octavio Vázquez
- 9 A. Alcaraz Torales
- 7 R. Pizarro Thomas
- 12 S. Santos
- 31 J. Eulogio Téllez
- 6 M. Isaís
- 21 J. Vallejo
- 187 G. Álvarez Montiel
- 32 P. Budib Peniche
- 206 T. Hernández
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