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Necaxa – Puebla0 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Necaxa
1.48
Total xG
2.66
Puebla
1.18
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Necaxa | Puebla |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match) | +0.32 | +0.32 |
| Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | +0.30 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.25 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.12 | |
| Rising form (1.6 vs 1.2 season average) | +0.12 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.10 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.3 season average) | −0.10 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.02 | |
| Eduardo Mustre Torres not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 33% of goal output missing (only 74% available) |
Key factors
- Offensive trend: Puebla currently scores more frequently (1.6 goals) than their season average (1.2) while Necaxa's production drops to 1.0
- Tactical efficiency: Puebla averaged 5.0 shots on target in recent matches despite only 39.2% possession
- Head-to-head history: Necaxa holds a strong record with 3 wins in the last 4 direct encounters
Risks
- Away defensive struggles: Puebla concedes an average of 2.57 goals per away match
- Hosts' form crisis: Necaxa remains winless in their last five games with a negative trend
- Key absentee: Puebla is missing attacker Eduardo Mustre Torres
All probabilities
Result
Necaxa43%
Draw29%
Puebla29%
Double chance
Necaxa or draw71%
Puebla or draw57%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.576%
Under 1.524%
Over 2.550%
Under 2.550%
Over 3.528%
Under 3.572%
Both teams score
Yes55%
No45%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
9%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
5%
0:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Necaxa: 2.9 cards per game (29 yellows, 6 reds in 12 games)
- Puebla: dropped a lead in 5 of 8 games (13 points lost)
- Necaxa: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (7 of 12 total)
Lineups
Necaxa 3-4-2-1 · Puebla 4-2-3-1
Necaxa
- 12 L. Jiménez González
- 33 R. Martínez Ruiz
- 5 K. Marques Naves
- 3 A. Oliveros Cano
- 13 O. de Jesús González Ojeda
- 16 P. Pedraza Reyna
- 8 L. Faravelli
- 14 M. Zaleta
- 21 M. Espíndola
- 10 J. Ruiz
- 9 J. Carranza
Puebla
- 28 R. Gutiérrez Hernández
- 12 I. Moreno
- 5 F. Almada
- 4 J. Vargas Campos
- 7 F. Monarrez Ochoa
- 24 A. Organista Orozco
- 21 S. Sanabria Ortega
- 27 B. Garnica Cortéz
- 26 K. Velasco Bonilla
- 22 C. Baltazar Agraz
- 8 O. Moreno Villegas
Substitutes
- 88 C. Vargas Tenorio
- 4 A. Peña López
- 7 K. Ante Rosero
- 17 R. Cortéz Pineda
- 99 Miguel Rodriguez
- 6 D. Leyva
- 20 F. Méndez Lara
- 1 C. Andrade Martín
- 11 J. Torres Patiño
- 90 J. Valencia Longa
- 10 M. Tomás Borges
- 3 A. Herrera Rodríguez
- 16 A. Ramírez Jiménez
- 20 J. Pachuca Martinez
- 33 J. Rodríguez Trujillo
- 15 O. Villa Domínguez
- 2 ?. Leyva
- 195 Á. de la Rosa
- 19 I. Maestro Puch
- 34 L. Azevedo da Silva
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