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Liga MX

Necaxa - Puebla

09/12/2026, 01:00 AM

0 : 1
Expected Goals
Necaxa
1.5
Total xG
2.7
Puebla
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

2:0

8%

1:2

7%

2:2

5%
What influences the xG?
NECPUE

Necaxa

Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
+0.30
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.10
Declining form (1 vs 1.3 season average)
-0.10
Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean
+0.02

Puebla

Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean
+0.25
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.12
Rising form (1.6 vs 1.2 season average)
+0.12
Eduardo Mustre Torres not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists)
33% of goal output missing (only 74% available)

League

High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match)
+0.32
+0.32
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Necaxa: 2.9 cards per game (29 yellows, 6 reds in 12 games)

  • 2
    Puebla: dropped a lead in 5 of 8 games (13 points lost)

  • 3
    Necaxa: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (7 of 12 total)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

43%

Draw

29%

Away Win

29%

Goals

Over 1.5

76%

Under 1.5

24%

Over 2.5

50%

Under 2.5

50%

Over 3.5

28%

Under 3.5

72%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

71%

Away or Draw

57%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

55%

No

45%

Key Factors
  • Offensive trend: Puebla currently scores more frequently (1.6 goals) than their season average (1.2) while Necaxa's production drops to 1.0
  • Tactical efficiency: Puebla averaged 5.0 shots on target in recent matches despite only 39.2% possession
  • Head-to-head history: Necaxa holds a strong record with 3 wins in the last 4 direct encounters
Risk Factors
  • Away defensive struggles: Puebla concedes an average of 2.57 goals per away match
  • Hosts' form crisis: Necaxa remains winless in their last five games with a negative trend
  • Key absentee: Puebla is missing attacker Eduardo Mustre Torres
Overview

Necaxa hosts Puebla at the Estadio Victoria de Aguascalientes

Liga MX fixture on September 12, 2026, 3:00 AM

Necaxa occupies 13th place with 8 points while Puebla sits in 10th with 10 points

Form

Necaxa shows a negative trend with a form string of LLDLD

Puebla features a form string of LDWWL with two victories in their last five matches

The home side registered zero wins in their last five outings in this dataset

Statistics

Necaxa scores 1.24 goals and concedes 1.00 goals on average per home game

Puebla concedes an average of 2.57 goals per away match while scoring 1.00 goals

Both teams scored in 80% of the matches played at this venue

Head-to-Head

Necaxa leads the head-to-head record with 3 wins out of 4 matches

The most recent encounter ended in a 0-0 draw on March 14, 2026

Puebla scored only one goal across these four direct meetings

Key Players

Julián Carranza averages 0.86 goals per 90 minutes with a season rating of 7.12

Javier Ruiz holds an average season rating of 7.02

Luis Jiménez records a season rating of 7.01 in goal

Kevin Velasco leads the away side with an average rating of 7.31 and one season goal

Carlos Baltazar scored one goal and provided one assist in 5 matches

Facundo Almada has a season rating of 6.86 with one goal scored from defence

Not nominated: Eduardo Mustre Torres (3 goals, 1 assist)

Goalkeepers

Luis Jiménez holds a rating of 7.01 with 4 clean sheets this season

Daniel Gutiérrez records a rating of 6.9 with 6 clean sheets

Influences

The match is played on grass turf at the Estadio Victoria de Aguascalientes

Matches at this venue historically average 2.6 goals per game

Necaxa records an average of 1.24 goals scored and 1.00 goals conceded at home

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