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Tijuana – Querétaro0 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Tijuana
1.41
Total xG
2.58
Querétaro
1.17
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Tijuana | Querétaro |
|---|---|---|
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.50 | |
| High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match) | +0.32 | +0.32 |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.2 season average) | +0.30 | |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.23 | |
| Attack strength (1.5x league average) | −0.19 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.17 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.14 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.08 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.08 | |
| Strong home record (2 vs 1.7 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Artificial turf advantage: Tijuana achieved 6 wins in 10 matches on this surface, while Querétaro lost both of its games on artificial turf
- Defensive home strength: Tijuana concedes only 0.57 goals per game at home, while Querétaro concedes an average of 2.5 goals away
- Historical dominance: Tijuana won all of the last 4 head-to-head matches against Querétaro
Risks
- Querétaro shows a positive form trend and currently scores more frequently with 2.3 goals per game compared to their season average of 1.3
- Tijuana's low offensive presence with an average of only 2.8 shots on target in recent matches
All probabilities
Result
Tijuana41%
Draw30%
Querétaro30%
Double chance
Tijuana or draw71%
Querétaro or draw59%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.574%
Under 1.526%
Over 2.548%
Under 2.552%
Over 3.526%
Under 3.574%
Both teams score
Yes54%
No46%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
9%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
0:2
5%
0:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Querétaro: 6 wins in 7 games with xG above 1.0 (86% win rate)
- Tijuana: 6 of 17 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Querétaro: 42% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (8 of 19)
- Tijuana: first goal in 7 of 10 games (70%)
Lineups
Tijuana 4-1-4-1 · Querétaro 4-2-3-1
Tijuana
- 2 J. Rodríguez Romero
- 17 R. Árciga Zárate
- 12 J. Porozo Vernaza
- 6 J. Gómez Molina
- 16 J. Vega Grijalva
- 8 I. Tona Olmeda
- 11 F. González
- 31 J. Padilla Sandoval
- 10 G. Mora Zambrano
- 7 A. Preciado Quintero
- 9 M. Daoudi El Ghezouani
Querétaro
- 25 G. Allison Revuelta
- 24 B. Duarte
- 13 D. Reyes Rosales
- 2 L. Abascia
- 27 D. Parra Durán
- 4 C. García Prades
- 5 S. Homenchenko Bianchi
- 16 E. Giménez Rojas
- 11 M. Coronel
- 12 P. de Almeida Barbosa
- 9 A. Ávila Vega
Substitutes
- 20 ?. Zapata Praga
- 26 A. Perez
- 4 U. Bilbao Arteta
- 18 A. Mejía Montoya
- 29 J. Hernández Soriano
- 33 P. Ortíz
- 202 J. González Cera
- 19 D. Abreu Firenze
- 188 A. Magallón
- 197 J. Orduño Uribe
- 7 I. Benito Sánchez
- 8 B. Parra Camacho
- 1 J. Hernández García
- 15 C. Villanueva López
- 29 W. Madrid
- 26 E. Pérez Reyes
- 20 A. Alcalá Solorio
- 18 ?. Dueñas
- 30 J. Martínez Jr.
- 17 D. Muñoz Bustamante
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