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Liga MX

Tijuana - Querétaro

09/12/2026, 03:10 AM

0 : 1
Expected Goals
Tijuana
1.4
Total xG
2.6
Querétaro
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

2:0

8%

1:2

7%

0:2

5%
What influences the xG?
TIJQUE

Tijuana

Attack strength (1.5x league average)
-0.19
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean
+0.14
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.08
Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.08
Strong home record (2 vs 1.7 goals/match)

Querétaro

Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
+0.50
Rising form (2.2 vs 1.2 season average)
+0.30
Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+0.23
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.17

League

High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match)
+0.32
+0.32
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Querétaro: 6 wins in 7 games with xG above 1.0 (86% win rate)

  • 2
    Tijuana: 6 of 17 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)

  • 3
    Querétaro: 42% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (8 of 19)

  • 4
    Tijuana: first goal in 7 of 10 games (70%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

41%

Draw

30%

Away Win

30%

Goals

Over 1.5

74%

Under 1.5

26%

Over 2.5

48%

Under 2.5

52%

Over 3.5

26%

Under 3.5

74%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

71%

Away or Draw

59%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

54%

No

46%

Key Factors
  • Artificial turf advantage: Tijuana achieved 6 wins in 10 matches on this surface, while Querétaro lost both of its games on artificial turf
  • Defensive home strength: Tijuana concedes only 0.57 goals per game at home, while Querétaro concedes an average of 2.5 goals away
  • Historical dominance: Tijuana won all of the last 4 head-to-head matches against Querétaro
Risk Factors
  • Querétaro shows a positive form trend and currently scores more frequently with 2.3 goals per game compared to their season average of 1.3
  • Tijuana's low offensive presence with an average of only 2.8 shots on target in recent matches
Overview

Tijuana hosts Querétaro at the Estadio Caliente

Liga MX match on September 12, 2026, 3:10 AM

Tijuana is in 4th place with 13 points, while Querétaro occupies 8th place with 10 points

Form

Tijuana home form: WDWLW

Querétaro away form: WWDLW

Both teams recorded 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their last 5 matches

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Tijuana scores an average of 1.46 goals and concedes 1.24 goals per game this season

Querétaro averages 1.06 goals scored and 1.47 goals conceded

Tijuana boasts an extremely strong home defense, conceding only 0.57 goals per home game

Querétaro concedes an average of 2.5 goals in away matches

Head-to-Head

Tijuana dominated the last 4 head-to-head matches with 4 wins

The last encounter ended in a 2-1 win for Tijuana on January 15, 2026

In total, Tijuana scored 7 goals in these matches while Querétaro scored 3

Key Players

Gilberto Mora leads Tijuana with 4 goals, 1 assist, and an average rating of 7.54

Adonis Preciado registered 1 assist and holds a rating of 7.15

Mourad El Ghezouani scored 2 goals so far this season

Santiago Homenchenko stands out for the visitors with 4 goals, 1 assist, and a rating of 7.63

Alí Ávila contributed 3 goals with a rating of 6.9

Carlo Adriano García Prades has 1 goal this season and a rating of 6.95

Goalkeepers

Antonio Rodríguez is in goal for Tijuana, holding an average season rating of 6.92

The home team has kept 13 clean sheets so far this season

Guillermo Allison guards the goal for Querétaro with an average rating of 6.84

Querétaro has kept 8 clean sheets so far

Influences

The match will be played on artificial turf

Tijuana has a strong record on artificial turf with 6 wins, 2 draws, and 2 defeats from 10 games

Querétaro lost both of its matches played on artificial turf with a goal difference of 1:3

The 5 games played at this venue averaged 2.8 goals per match

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