🇲🇽

Liga MX

Cruz Azul - América

09/13/2026, 03:15 AM

4 : 3
Expected Goals
Cruz Azul
1.4
Total xG
2.9
América
1.6
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

1:2

9%

2:1

8%

0:2

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
CAAMÉ

Cruz Azul

Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.22
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.14
Declining form (1.4 vs 1.9 season average)
-0.14
Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean
+0.13
Attack strength (1.27x league average)
-0.11
Standings disadvantage (pos 8 vs 1, 7 places gap)
-0.10
Luka Romero on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)

América

Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.28
Attack strength (1.6x league average)
+0.26
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.14
Rising form (2.2 vs 1.7 season average)
+0.14
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
-0.13
Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 8, 7 places gap)
+0.05

League

High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match)
+0.33
+0.33
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    América with Raphael Veiga starting: 1.7 goals/game, without him: 0.9 (14/9 games, last 30)

  • 2
    Cruz Azul: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Atlético San Luis: 2 goals (81', 90+3')

  • 3
    América: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

32%

Draw

28%

Away Win

40%

Goals

Over 1.5

80%

Under 1.5

20%

Over 2.5

56%

Under 2.5

44%

Over 3.5

33%

Under 3.5

67%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

60%

Away or Draw

68%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

60%

No

40%

Key Factors
  • Form gap: While América's recent form is positive with 2.2 goals per match, Cruz Azul's goal production of 1.4 has recently slowed down compared to their season average
  • Offensive power: Cruz Azul recently averaged 6.6 shots on target per match, while América averaged 7.4 shots on target in recent games
  • Model prediction: The mathematical analysis calculates a 40% away win probability for América
Risk Factors
  • Defensive risk: América concedes an average of 1.41 goals per away match
  • Trend risk: Cruz Azul shows a negative form trend, recently conceding 1.6 goals per match compared to their season average of 1.23
  • Data quality: Limited data availability for duel statistics in the last five matches
Overview

Cruz Azul host América at Estadio Banorte

Liga MX clash on September 13, 2026, 5:15 AM

League leaders América travel to eighth-placed Cruz Azul

Form

Cruz Azul showing upward trend with two consecutive wins (LLLWW)

América unbeaten in five matches with four wins and one draw (DWWWW)

Away side showing more stable form with four consecutive victories

Statistics

Cruz Azul scoring an average of 1.77 goals per game while conceding 1.09

América defensively stable with 1.16 goals conceded and scoring an average of 1.61

Cruz Azul defensively strong at home with only 0.92 goals conceded per home game

Head-to-Head

Five head-to-head matches in history

Two wins for Cruz Azul, one win for América and two draws

The last encounter ended in a 1-1 draw

Key Players

Jeremy Márquez has already scored 3 goals and provided 1 assist this season

Nicolás Ibáñez also contributed 3 goals this season for Cruz Azul

Henry Martin shines for América with 3 goals and 1 assist in 5 games

Not nominated: Luka Romero (1 goal, 2 assists this season)

Goalkeepers

Kevin Mier has kept 12 clean sheets this season

Rodolfo Cota has kept 11 clean sheets for América

Both goalkeepers anchor the defensive stability of their teams

Influences

Match played on natural grass at Estadio Banorte

Venue stats show an average of 2.4 goals per match

Home advantage supports Cruz Azul with an average of 1.75 goals scored at home

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.