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Cruz Azul – América4 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Cruz Azul
1.36
Total xG
2.92
América
1.55
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Cruz Azul | América |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match) | +0.33 | +0.33 |
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.28 | |
| Attack strength (1.6x league average) | +0.26 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.22 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.14 | |
| Declining form (1.4 vs 1.9 season average) | −0.14 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.14 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.7 season average) | +0.14 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | −0.13 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.13 | |
| Attack strength (1.27x league average) | −0.11 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 8 vs 1, 7 places gap) | −0.10 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 8, 7 places gap) | +0.05 | |
| Luka Romero on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) |
Key factors
- Form gap: While América's recent form is positive with 2.2 goals per match, Cruz Azul's goal production of 1.4 has recently slowed down compared to their season average
- Offensive power: Cruz Azul recently averaged 6.6 shots on target per match, while América averaged 7.4 shots on target in recent games
- Model prediction: The mathematical analysis calculates a 40% away win probability for América
Risks
- Defensive risk: América concedes an average of 1.41 goals per away match
- Trend risk: Cruz Azul shows a negative form trend, recently conceding 1.6 goals per match compared to their season average of 1.23
- Data quality: Limited data availability for duel statistics in the last five matches
All probabilities
Result
Cruz Azul32%
Draw28%
América40%
Double chance
Cruz Azul or draw60%
América or draw68%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.580%
Under 1.520%
Over 2.556%
Under 2.544%
Over 3.533%
Under 3.567%
Both teams score
Yes60%
No40%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
1:2
9%
2:1
8%
0:2
7%
2:2
6%
4:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- América with Raphael Veiga starting: 1.7 goals/game, without him: 0.9 (14/9 games, last 30)
- Cruz Azul: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Atlético San Luis: 2 goals (81', 90+3')
- América: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Cruz Azul 5-4-1 · América 4-2-3-1
Cruz Azul
- 23 K. Mier Robles
- 16 Á. Márquez Castañeda
- 4 W. Ditta Pérez
- 17 A. García Moreno
- 5 J. Orozco Chiquete
- 3 O. Campos Chagoya
- 20 J. Paradela
- 6 É. Lira Méndez
- 8 A. Palavecino Lamela
- 19 C. Rodríguez Gómez
- 7 N. Ibáñez
América
- 30 R. Cota Robles
- 34 D. Espinoza Acosta
- 3 I. Reyes Romero
- 29 R. Del Castillo
- 5 K. Álvarez Campos
- 28 E. Sánchez Ocegueda
- 13 A. Cervantes Martín del Campo
- 12 I. Violante Romero
- 23 R. Cavalcante Veiga
- 7 P. Rodríguez Bravo
- 9 H. Martín Mex
Substitutes
- 1 A. Gudiño Portillo
- 18 L. Romero
- 29 C. Rotondi
- 33 G. Piovi
- 12 A. Montes Castro
- 2 A. Mozo Rodríguez
- 21 G. Fernández Leites
- 55 Rogelio González
- 10 A. Montaño
- 11 O. Ebere
- 22 ?. Perea Abonce
- 1 L. Malagón Velázquez
- 20 A. Gutiérrez Torres
- 6 E. Cerrillo
- 2 E. Lara Contreras
- 26 C. Borja González
- 10 A. Zendejas Saavedra
- 217 Í. da Conceição
- 189 A. Cárdenas
- 93 M. Borja Hernández
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