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Liga MX

Toluca - Atlas

09/12/2026, 11:05 PM

5 : 2
Expected Goals
Toluca
1.4
Total xG
2.6
Atlas
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

1:2

8%

2:0

7%

0:2

5%
What influences the xG?
TOLATL

Toluca

Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.28
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
+0.28
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
-0.04
Everardo del Villar on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)

Atlas

Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
+0.37
Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+0.32
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.04
Édgar Zaldívar not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists)
Duk on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
30% of goal output missing (only 60% available)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Toluca: first goal in 8 of 11 games (73%)

  • 2
    Atlas: 2.6 cards per game (25 yellows, 6 reds in 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

39%

Draw

30%

Away Win

31%

Goals

Over 1.5

74%

Under 1.5

26%

Over 2.5

47%

Under 2.5

53%

Over 3.5

26%

Under 3.5

74%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

69%

Away or Draw

61%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

54%

No

46%

Key Factors
  • Toluca are in rising form, recently scoring 2.5 goals per match compared to their season average of 2.1
  • Atlas exhibit major weaknesses away from home, conceding an average of 2.46 goals per away match
  • Toluca dominated recent matches with an average of 62% possession and registered 5.0 shots on target per game
Risk Factors
  • Édgar Zaldívar and Duk are missing from the squad, leaving Atlas with only 60% of their usual offensive starting strength
  • Atlas generated an average of only 3.0 shots on target per match in recent games
  • The model predicts a balanced matchup with a home win probability of only 39%
Overview

Toluca host Atlas at the Estadio Nemesio Díez

Liga MX match on September 12, 2026, 11:05 PM

Toluca occupy 3rd place with 13 points, Atlas follow in 6th place also with 13 points

A direct duel at eye level in the upper half of the table

Form

Toluca show a form of LWDWW with two consecutive wins recently

The home team recorded 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their last 5 matches

Atlas display a form of LWWLD and drew their last match

The visitors registered 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses

Statistics

Toluca score an average of 1.86 goals per game and concede 1.02 goals this season

At home, Toluca score an average of 1.85 goals and concede only 0.85 goals

Atlas score 1.15 goals on average away but concede a high average of 2.46 goals per game

Matches at Estadio Nemesio Díez average 3.6 goals per game

Head-to-Head

Toluca won 2 of the last 4 head-to-head matches while Atlas won none

Two matches ended in a draw with a goal difference of 8:4 in favor of Toluca

The last encounter on March 15, 2026, ended in a 1:1 draw

Toluca are historically dominant in this matchup

Key Players

Helinho shines for Toluca with 2 goals, 2 assists, and an average rating of 7.5

Federico Viñas contributed 2 goals this season with a rating of 7.28

Federico Pereira stabilizes Toluca's defense with a rating of 7.57

Luís André Leite Esteves leads Atlas with 2 goals and a rating of 6.94

Arturo González has 1 goal and 1 assist with a rating of 7.13

Manuel Capasso records 1 goal and a rating of 6.97 in defense for Atlas

Goalkeepers

Ronaldo Beltrán Dimas guards the goal for Toluca, which has kept 13 clean sheets this season

Camilo Vargas plays in goal for Atlas with a solid average rating of 7.03

Atlas kept 10 clean sheets so far this season

Influences

Toluca benefit from a strong home record conceding only 0.85 goals per game at Estadio Nemesio Díez

The stadium features an average of 3.6 goals per match

The match will be played on natural grass

The mathematical prediction calculates a home win probability of 39%

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