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Toluca – Atlas5 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Toluca
1.37
Total xG
2.57
Atlas
1.19
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Toluca | Atlas |
|---|---|---|
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.37 | |
| Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.32 | |
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.28 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.28 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| Everardo del Villar on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Édgar Zaldívar not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Duk on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 30% of goal output missing (only 60% available) |
Key factors
- Toluca are in rising form, recently scoring 2.5 goals per match compared to their season average of 2.1
- Atlas exhibit major weaknesses away from home, conceding an average of 2.46 goals per away match
- Toluca dominated recent matches with an average of 62% possession and registered 5.0 shots on target per game
Risks
- Édgar Zaldívar and Duk are missing from the squad, leaving Atlas with only 60% of their usual offensive starting strength
- Atlas generated an average of only 3.0 shots on target per match in recent games
- The model predicts a balanced matchup with a home win probability of only 39%
All probabilities
Result
Toluca39%
Draw30%
Atlas31%
Double chance
Toluca or draw69%
Atlas or draw61%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.574%
Under 1.526%
Over 2.547%
Under 2.553%
Over 3.526%
Under 3.574%
Both teams score
Yes54%
No46%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:0
7%
0:2
5%
5:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Toluca: first goal in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- Atlas: 2.6 cards per game (25 yellows, 6 reds in 12 games)
Lineups
Toluca 4-1-4-1 · Atlas 5-4-1
Toluca
- 12 Ronaldo Beltrán Dimas
- 2 D. Barbosa Zaragoza
- 4 B. Méndez Cittadini
- 6 A. Pereira Castelnoble
- 20 J. Gallardo Vasconcelos
- 5 F. Romero
- 11 H. Nunes de Castro
- 8 N. Castro
- 10 J. Angulo Uriarte
- 9 E. Vega Rojas
- 16 F. Viñas Barboza
Atlas
- 12 C. Vargas Gil
- 3 J. Sánchez Ramos
- 13 G. Aguirre Ledesma
- 28 M. Capasso
- 16 M. Valenzuela
- 5 J. Rodríguez Hernández
- 58 A. González González
- 27 V. Hugo Ríos de Alba
- 15 P. Ramírez Barboza
- 10 L. Leite Esteves
- 9 F. Monzón
Substitutes
- 25 E. López
- 26 J. Dias Fernandes
- 7 V. Guzmán Guzmán
- 13 L. Garcia Teixeira
- 23 O. Virgen
- 15 P. Uriel Perez Hernandez
- 24 F. Arce Juárez
- 3 A. Briseño Vázquez
- 184 Sebastián Aceves
- 18 D. Shrem Serur
- 11 L. Lopes
- 44 J. Sánchez Purata
- 4 A. Mora Barraza
- 17 J. Lozano Silva
- 22 A. Sánchez Montes De Oca
- 192 J. Serrato Zambrano
- 23 S. Hernández Flores
- 203 José Martín
- 18 E. Montiel
- 251 L. Gamboa Carillo
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